The dollar may go into growth already Monday in Russia, analysts say Bloomberg. Also, this year will continue the considerable external debt of Russia, while the rise in the dollar will undoubtedly continue, and sanctions will not withdraw from Russia until at least autumn this year.
“The grim economic realities make the normalization of relations with the West an acute need for Russia,” said Lilit Gevorgyan, senior economist at IHS Global Insight in London. However, there is no progress made in this matter and is not expected yet, and Russia has to wage war on three fronts – the Caucasus, where nationalist tendencies are amplified, Syria and support the rebels in Ukraine.
Badly in need of dollar the Russian government is not going to swarajist gas supplies to Ukraine. Gazprom is still at least three years to supply gas to Ukraine, reports Bloomberg. This follows from the non-public company’s budget, approved in December. It is noted that the estimated volumes of up to 41% of the country over the last year.
The budget includes several scenarios, the Russian state company intends to ship from 8.8 billion to 14.1 billion cubic meters of gas per year. Last year “Gazprom” has sent to Ukraine 6.1 billion cubic meters of this fuel. However, a severe shortage of dollars will continue in the Russian budget, because the budget deficit now is estimated at 7%. It is expected that the dollar exchange rate in Russia will grow to $ 100 before spring.
“One of the objectives of the Central Bank in 2016 will be the de-dollarization of banks’ balance sheets,” said Nabiullina at a meeting with bankers, the newspaper writes RBC.
At the end of 2014 or beginning of 2015 has seen an increase of foreign currency deposits of the population, but “then we were able to stabilize the share of foreign currency deposits” (after the jump of course the Central Bank raised its key interest rate, after it grew and bets on ruble deposits in banks).
In 2015, the share of foreign currency deposits increased at eight of the ten largest banks. Greater it has increased the Bank “FC Opening” — by 9.82 percentage points to 60.7%. On the second place on growth rates Sberbank — by 7.8 percentage points to 29.6 per cent. Basically, the increase occurred due to the return of cash currency to the banking system, in addition, some clients converted ruble deposits in foreign currency, explained chief analyst of Sberbank Mikhail Matovnikov.
Chief economist at the National rating Agency Maxim Vasin believes that in 2016 the share of foreign currency deposits will continue to grow: “This process is heated by the fact that ruble deposits with high interest rates open in late 2014 — early 2015, will fail, and investors move into the currency”. The situation will change only if the ruble will become stronger or if the government will impose restrictions on the purchase and the currency movement, says Vasin. And such plans would be regarded as quite a “crisis”.
In General, the “dollar” crisis in Russia will continue and worsen in the spring, analysts say.
