The next meeting of the Bank of Russia will take place this Friday, April 29. Consensus regarding the actions of the regulator have no experts, but the Agency Bloomberg believe that the key rate again will leave without changes.
The logic of this prediction lies in the fact that in the latest report of the Ministry of economic development inflation of 4% is expected only in 2019, not 2017, as the Central Bank. From this we can conclude that the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina will not hurry with a rate cut and would prefer to keep it at the current level.
In addition, at the previous meeting, the Bank of Russia announced that it will pursue a “moderately tight” monetary policy for a longer time than expected. Recall that the key rate was last changed nearly a year ago – in July 2015
The experts of Goldman Sachs say that the forecast of Ministry of economic development, in fact, gives the Central Bank a tool that allows you to save high interest rates. Because of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation from all sides are pressing requirements immediately and most strongly to lower interest rates, such a tool is very necessary.
In fact, many economists believe that the Central Bank is not dealing with what you need. A priority should be placed not inflation, and economic growth, and without available credit of no growth to speak. In addition, the Bank of Russia for several years can not cope with the task of achieving the inflation target, and therefore, perhaps, it’s time to refocus.
Not to mention the fact that the Central Bank often attempts to fight non-monetary inflation with monetary tools. We are talking about indexation of tariffs, which directly put pressure on the basket, and no high rates here will not help.
As for the opinion of the analysts directly about an upcoming meeting, out of 23 surveyed by Bloomberg, only five believe that the CBR will cut rates by 50 basis points.
Perhaps we should pay attention to the fact that commercial banks reduced Deposit rates for the population, and this means that banks have either excess liquidity or they are waiting for lower rates.
Yesterday, for example, Sberbank lowered the rates on deposits of the population, reported the Agency RIA “Novosti” with reference to the press service of the credit institution.
“Reducing interest rates on deposits of individuals is due to the General trend of a fall in interest rates on deposits of natural persons in the market. The reduction of interest rates on deposits of a basic line made in rubles — up to 0.9 percentage points in foreign currency — up to 0.5 percentage points”, — reads the statement of the credit institution.
So, the rate on the most profitable contribution to the Bank — “Stay” — is now of 7.76% for ruble deposits, of 2.06% for foreign currency. The maximum rates that apply for contributions of funds for three years (not less than RUB 2 million) equal to $100 thousand or 100 thousand euros.
Signs of recovery according to Ulyukayev
We will remind, in the end of last week the Minister of economic development Alexei Ulyukayev said that the Russian economy began to show signs of recovery. Leading indicators show signs of revival of the Russian economy, the decline in GDP in the first quarter was better than analysts had forecast, and 1.4%, he said.
“Improving the structure of the economy. It began to rise in manufacturing industries. Growing agriculture. The financial results of Russian companies last year increased by 53%. This means that there investment growth for development. Leading indicators also show signs of recovery in the economy,” – said Ulyukayev, reports “Interfax”. Increased loading on railway transport and electricity production.
“The statistical results of the first quarter, also better than analysts had expected. Although we still are at the stage of negative GDP. But this value is not quite what it was before: a 1.4% decline. Almost close to zero, the decline in the industry: minus 0.6%,” – said the Minister.
