Today is really all the talk about Aleppo. The whole world is breathlessly waiting for the outcome of the battle that will determine the future of Syria, and the world hands in the coming years. Has repeatedly mentioned that “the economic capital of the country” – in fact, the key to ending the war. Important – only Damascus. But in Damascus, Assad is firmly seated… a Year ago there was a question about the fall of Damascus. Now is the question of the capture of Aleppo, in some areas, which militants hosted 2012.
The capture of Aleppo will be the beginning of unification under the authority of a legitimate government and the main centers of the country (the axis Aleppo – Hama – HOMS – Damascus – Deraa), concentration in the hands of Assad industrialized West with access to the sea. Then the question arises, Stripping the province of Idlib, and then issue the full sweep of the “moderate” fighters…
Emphasize that this is a question for a long time… Local pockets of resistance “green” will appear in different parts of the country, the more that Assad’s army greatly exhausted and objectively the authorities are not able to control the entire area…
But we should not get ahead of ourselves – before Stripping Aleppo is still far, the militants are desperate to relieve their surrounded comrades at Aleppo is a real meat grinder… As history shows, “boilers” in Syria can resist the full environment for many years, take the same of HOMS, which government forces tried to take from 2011 to 2015 or Deir ez-Zor, where the SAA group defending itself from ISIS for three years in the full environment.
Even the complete defeat of the “green” does not mean an end to the war remains no less serious opponent of ISIS, which on Syria their plans… Even if we imagine that “green” and “black” is defeated, it is unclear what to do with the Kurds, which, by the way, that America stands for, and which, I think, will try to use against Assad. But more on that later.
Now, the ongoing battle for Aleppo… About 10 thousand militants can still be in the city. Approximately the same number can be used to attempt to release the besieged. It is worth noting the suddenly high level of interaction between disparate groups together opposing Assad’s troops. These groups are still feuding with each other, even occasionally fire intermittently at each other, but then exhibit a striking unity – not only with each other but also with the recent rebranding of “an-Nusra”…
The leadership of the former “al-Nusra” do not even hide the fact that he changed the name solely to them ceased to be terrorists and bombed. What is that? Wonder if tomorrow ISIS will announce the rebranding and would be willing to sit down at the negotiating table, our American “partners” they also declare moderate and will require not to bomb?
Please check out the level of cynicism of the newly-minted “moderates” – “Jabhat Fatah al-sham” (the new name for terrorists) translates as “Front of the conquest of Syria.” CONQUEST, Carl! Not exempt from “the bloody dictatorial regime of Assad”, and conquest. And now with these invaders, the Americans hastened to call to sit at the negotiating table, declaring them modest. Moderate conquerors! As they are not only tears of dissonance?
… By the way, a rollback to the struggle for Syria in opposition to global Jihad, will certainly force the part of the jihadist internationalist (especially not the Arabs and not Syrians) go to supporters of a global Caliphate. So from LIH to you guys, thank you very much!
Still shows the same battle for Aleppo, in a critical situation you can be friends not only with the “an-Nusra”, as if she there did not call, but with the same ISIS, which like accidentally attacking the positions of government troops on the highway Khanasser-Aleppo in the South-East, which is clearly grist to the mill “green” ,delaying the part of the forces of Assad’s army from possible break of “moderate” in the South-West…
If nothing will not change dramatically, for example, positions of key external players, everything goes to the fact that “moderate” rebels will have to sooner or later resign. The important point here remains the sponsors, without whom they never would be able to fight all the past five years.
If they could get help in the open (and not only from the Saudis, the Turks, but even from Americans themselves), now this harder. First, the Americans have very clearly demonstrated their unreliability as allies, obviously preferring to make a major bet in this war on the Kurds, in fact, “throwing” green” in the Northern province of Aleppo, allowing the Kurds to start to cut those from the Turkish border.
Explanation in the spirit “that is not got ISIS, you will agree, do not sound very convincing for fanatics who sincerely believed that the whole “progressive free world supports their struggle against the “bloody regime”, etc.
Americans, it seems, really did a number on the Kurds as the most efficient and progressive force in Syria. … Besides the Kurds can tickle your nerves is clearly presumptuous Erdogan, which from the point of view of the NATO chain of command really “lost coast”. In General, this side of “green” it is unlikely that it shines. No, of course, Americans on the way to support them, including trying to resume own format of negotiations, trying to force Russia not to beat them too painful…
The Saudis on this account, clearly panicking. They are very well aware that their protege has come to an end, and that their purpose in this war may not only unfulfilled, but also result in losses. That is why they began tearfully to persuade Russia to abandon support for Assad, not to give that to defeat the “green”.
Again, there were statements about “the last opportunity to come to their senses” (like, if my memory serves me, these “last” times in all the years of the war there were so few pieces), this one was floated the “heavy artillery” of Russia proposed to become even more powerful than was the Soviet Union”! In both!
It even more abruptly than “daring khazbulat, poor little hut of yours, the Golden Treasury I’m going to sedate you. Ladies horse ladies dagger, dam his rifle, and for that, for everything you give to me wife.” Or this comes to mind: “the Ships lie broken, chests are opened, emeralds and rubies scattered rain. If you want to be rich if you want to be happy, stay, boy, with us – be our king”…
A lame duck trying to quack, but she was limping – not going to fly. And all of her suggestions – just a fiction, nothing they offer us can’t…
Turkey. The Turks have, as you know, new “the honeymoon period”. How long it will last is unknown, but iron was said to “chef” from the famous film, need to forge on the spot… besides, the Americans have put Erdogan’s actually in a hopeless situation their games with the Kurds, thereby pushing it into the arms of Assad.
It is unlikely Erdogan will rush into these arms, except that the situation of Kurds will become absolutely critical and will require strong joint action. But stop helping the rebels is possible. Another issue is that to stop helping militants means to allow Kurds to close the border, but it seems to have the issue resolved, and lose Ankara in fact have nothing, but try to grasp at least some support to the situational allies – why not?
It remains the last serious player – Americans. Those, though, and made the final bid on the Kurds and ISIS capture of the capital, yet quite give up the “green” will not. Moreover, with the capture of the capital of ISIL’s something not fused, and the victory of Assad at Aleppo, and especially the unification under his authority of the West country, will enable him to throw all forces against ISIS and thwart such a wonderful plan of Washington, virtually depriving them of the laurels of the winner. But this can not be allowed.
Once again, what it all can last for years…
The Americans again tried to besiege Russia, seized as a rescue straw for rebranding “al-Nusra”, and once again asked Moscow to stop attacks on militants in Aleppo and to conclude a week-long truce in order to once again try to divide the terrorists those who bomb and those who cannot. Maybe it would work this time, but have “green” good play a dirty trick, shooting down a Russian helicopter. …
Interestingly, again in D.C. with redoubled force sounded “baddeleyite”. For example, a statement by CIA Director John Brennan:“the Conflict in this country will not end until Assad is in power”, – he said, adding that, in his opinion, a legitimately elected head of the Syrian state “lost all legitimacy”. “Assad is not a part of the future Syria,” he says. According to him, many Syrians initially took up arms, as opposed to President, and while Assad is in power in Syria, “people will die”.
Don’t know what they’re in Washington, I expect, but it is naive to believe that Assad will leave now, when the time with relentless speed working for him, when he left quite a bit to make a radical change in the war.
Interestingly, Americans mouth the same Brennan announced his strategy for the case, if Assad will remain in power and will be able to unite a large part of Syria. Brennan admitted that he did not know whether after years of conflict in Syria, to regain the unity of this country
“I don’t know whether it will be possible again to unite Syria, whether it’s some type of a confederal structure with various religious groups that govern their parts of the country,” he said.
For those who do not understand, translation: if Assad leaves, then the Americans will try to do everything to divide Syria into several warring with each other States or quasi-States. The first of these could be Syrian Kurdistan. In Iraq, everything is easier – there is a clearly defined fault lines of Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish States. In Syria more difficult – but there is such a split is very likely, especially if outside it will actively help.
Assad, by the way, made it clear that the country will be cleared of terrorists by military means, that the time for talking is over… that he will be able not only to gather all Syrian territory, clearing it of militants, but to keep it, I doubt it. It is a subject for long and serious trading between all players, even in defeat, do not want to leave just like that. Our task is to take the most favourable position for these tenders…”.
With this squeeze, thrown without emotional pieces about “do not throw their Russian”, etc., I completely agree. Assad will remain, but the Kurds a piece will receive. And not without our help, albeit tacitly-unspoken. Although… demonstrative delivery Susek already was. In General, at this time, no friends, only interests and situational allies.
