The Turkish army and under the control of Ankara, the Islamists seized in Syria border area, which was under the control of the “Islamic state”. At the same time, government troops again laid siege to the East of Aleppo, controlled by the “moderate opposition”. Was it the result of agreements geopolitical players? Scattered data suggest the possibility that Moscow and Ankara with the consent of Damascus would play “four hands”, each receiving their bonuses. Further developments, however, now depends still from Turkey: rush jihadists back on a new breakthrough of the siege in Aleppo or in favor of Ankara will support “the border” and will begin an offensive on the Syrian Kurds, who have bet on Washington.
Surrender in Aleppo: ran on the support of the Turkish military
The army of Bashar al-Assad knocked out of the group of jihadists from the territory of military schools and took over the militant-controlled part of Aleppo in a siege. The Islamists have accused each other for the failure of the defense. Thus, the ex-Syrian al-Qaeda, renamed the group “Dzhebhat Fateh al-sham, the entire blame for the defeat was laid on the Islamists, who left Aleppo and went to the border with Turkey.
“In war, the cost of failure is the road, the rebels left the fronts in the South of Aleppo and went to Dzharablus, substituting your people,” he wrote on Twitter, the jihadist of the al-sham center” and gave his record a photograph of the departing groups of Islamists.
“He said that because of Russian air strikes and shelling of the forces of Assad, they had no choice. The situation could be worse. The regime (Damascus — approx. ed.) still have a lot to do to win that lately occupied by the rebels,” — wrote in social networks prodigality activist Malcolmite and urged not to do hasty conclusions. He claims that government forces lost thousands of soldiers and 30 tanks. According to official figures, were lost 348 soldiers. Jihadists their losses do not advertise. In social networks write that they are much more government. Al-Muhaisen (one of the leaders of jabhat al Fateh al-sham, ex-“dzhebhat an-Nusra”) sent about 3 thousand jihadists in the capture of three colleges. 1 thousand 3 thousand killed and wounded”, — wrote on Twitter Pro-government activist Hamza Suliman presented in social networks is a retired Syrian military.
Kurdish fiasco single “autonomy”
The operation “Shield of the Euphrates allowed Ankara two “knife” blows to penetrate a few tens of kilometers inside Syria to Dzharablus and al-Rai. Thus, the border territory controlled by ISIS, were caught between the Turkish military and groups to oppose dozens of tanks, howitzers, and hundreds of special forces soldiers to Islamic state proved nothing. His fighters withdrew. The area between the two Turkish wedges were cleaned not even the Turkish military and secular opposition in Syria, and jihadists. The photos, for example, has repeatedly come across the militant group “Nur al-DIN al-Zinki”. They known that they support the Americans, and in the summer, the jihadists beheaded a 12-year-old Palestinian boy and posted a video of the massacre in the network. However, that’s not all. Yesterday in the social networks posted a video as a jihadist rips the flag of the “Islamic state” and kisses him, saying that this is the real flag of the jihadists, and ISIS stole it from them.
Turkey rejects any accusations that the operation “Shield of the Euphrates” is aimed not against ISIS, against the Kurds. Prime Minister Binali Yildirim even lashed out at Western media claiming that Turkey is at war with terrorists. In principle, the head of the Turkish government’s right, as the operation of Ankara can be interpreted in different ways. On the one hand, Ankara has fulfilled the requirement of the West to take control of the border. On the other, has long promised to the Kurds to stop their attempts to come over the Euphrates, what happened. At the same time Turkey put a cross over the Union territories of the Syrian Kurds, as captured by plot divides the Kurdish cantons Afrin and Rozhava.
The Kurds suspect that the Turks themselves would not have dared to do so. Even ordinary residents of Northern Syria believe that fate threw them even Iran with Damascus, whose relations with the Kurdish YPG escalated to the limit because of the control over the individual cities of the North.
“Today, the Kurds have been drawn into a war not only against ISIS and Turkey and the Assad regime and Iran,” — said the Agency ARAnews a resident of the province Hasakah Sharvan Amoudi. Today we fear that jihadists of the “Islamic state” shaved his beard and joined the Pro-Turkish militants who call themselves members of the so-called “Free Syrian army”. The Turks will sign an agreement even with the devil to only the Kurds had the power in the region.”
It can be assumed that the weakening of the Kurds was the result of their bet on the Americans. When other geopolitical players began their Syrian solitaire, Kurds are not considered allies in principle. And, according to Arab media reports, Ankara has managed to negotiate the operation with Russia and Iran, and even Syria. At least in Moscow, Tehran and Damascus knew about the future invasion. Americans that Turkish intervention was caught off guard in its support of the Kurds have only limited appeal to Turkey to fight Islamists and not the Kurds. More — stopped an attempt by the jihadists to step foot on the position of the Kurds on this side of the Euphrates. Although at the same time, Turkish news Agency Anadolu reported that the border area “rebels” cleaned together with the international coalition led by the United States.
Turkey and Russia: the game “four hands”?
Senior analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Charles Lister told about his data on the situation in Aleppo and on the border with Turkey.
“An hour ago Eastern Aleppo under opposition control was again under siege. It happened after the staged attack that troops, supported and directed in this time the Russian special forces, wrote on Facebook American expert. — Organization of the previous siege Eastern Aleppo was the result of the July operations of Iranian forces, which completely ruined almost completed the negotiation process, the United States and Russia. Russia was furious because of the loss of influence and hastily announced the creation of “humanitarian corridors”, which was not helpful.
The fact that Russia is now directly involved in the organization of the new siege speaks volumes. Especially because it happens during the accelerated negotiations with the USA to ensure the security of humanitarian corridors to Aleppo. (Even discussed the use of Russian troops for security)”.
Thus, if the expert is right, Moscow and Ankara with the consent of Damascus would play “four hands”. Turkey, at least, pretended that waives claims to the entire North of Syria and pulled part of it supported militants to the border. Therefore, Damascus was able to bring the siege to Aleppo, and Russia — to strengthen negotiating positions with the United States to establish a truce in the new environment. Ankara in exchange received “good” to “safety zone” on the border.
What’s next?
In addition to the waste part of the Islamists towards the border to jihadists, the situation in Aleppo is complicated by the fact that delayed the merger of the two largest groups. After “dzhebhat an-Nusra” successfully renamed and announced the severance of relations with al-Qaeda, it was joined by a number of small jihadist movements. But, more importantly, began negotiating the merger with Ahrar al-sham”. The group is a no less formidable force and is included in the Higher Committee on negotiations with Damascus, which was organized in Riyadh.
“Merger is affected by political, religious and strategic differences in the two groups,” writes Charles Lister. A significant part of the political and military commanders of “Ahrar al-sham” opposed the merger, citing refusal by the fact that disappear revolutionary identity and reputation which the group was created in 2011. Politically in the “Ahrar al-sham” I doubt that the allies renounced all ties with al-Qaeda, militarily, do not believe that merger and control will be carried out on equal terms”.
So far, as confirmed by the expert, the various factions blame each other for the loss of the corridor to East of Aleppo, and now many in the city will depend on the development of the situation in the border area after the operation, Turkish troops came under the control of jihadists.
“Turkish operation against ISIS and YPG without a doubt pulled part of the opposition forces, leaving jabhat al Fateh al-sham one-on-one with government troops. However, theoretically, if the Turkish operation will continue in the direction of Azaz and al-Bab, Northern Aleppo, opposition will find the strength again to break through the corridor to East of Aleppo. That power can not stand the “spontaneous” and a simultaneous attack from the North and the South,” said a leading analyst of the Washington Center for the Middle East.
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Whatever it was, but in the scenario of Aleppo and much will now depend on the position of Ankara. And she, in turn, may use a border “security zone” in analogy with 2014 — to try to deal with the Kurds by proxy. Two years ago, Ankara supported the jihadists have tried to dislodge the Kurds from the border areas. However, Turkey and the operation ended in disaster. The Kurds drove the Islamists from most parts, thereby controlling two-thirds of the Turkish-Syrian border. What happens now is unknown. It is not excluded that Ankara udovolstvye the status quo, and the Kurds would provide the role of heroes, some of whom will fall for the world victory over the “Islamic state” in General and for the capture of the capital of the extremists Raqqa in particular. Why, in fact, practice shows that Washington supports the Syrian Kurds.
