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Syrian metronome

Сирийский метроном

The chief military event of the week was captured on video the destruction of the Turkish helicopter gunships AH-1W Super Cobra. In the Internet appeared the footage, which shows how on may 13 the Kurdish fighters shot down a Turkish military helicopter. Presumably, the helicopter was shot down in the mountains of Hakkari province in Southeast Turkey. The footage seen a fighter who carries a missile from MANPADS “Igla” of the Soviet model. A moment later the missile struck the helicopter, which comes off the tail boom, the machine begins an uncontrolled spin and drops behind a distant hill. A video posted by Gerilla TV channel, close to the Kurdistan workers ‘ party.

Through the day the Turks confirmed the loss of the helicopter and the deaths of both pilots. The emergence of the Kurds of modern MANPADS are an extremely important indicator. Obviously, to share them with the Kurds could only Syrians or the Iranians, and it indicates that the Kurds are regarded by them as strategic allies, and all the arguments about “split” between the Kurds and Syrians Assad — no more than arguments are far from reality armchair analysts.

For Turks, the emergence of modern MANPADS the Kurds as a bucket of cold water over the collar — now the Turks are deprived of strategic air superiority, and this drastically reduces their combat capability. And this is one step closer to the Kurds to their goal of full autonomy and the establishment of an independent Kurdish state. But creating it immediately triggers a chain reaction collapse of Turkey, where the Kurds are the largest minority, and their territories cover almost 20% of the Turkish state.

But not only the Turks suffer losses in aircraft. In the conditions of unprecedented heat, and the thermometer already in the beginning of may exceeded 40 degrees, significantly increased the risk of fires. According to information received from Syrian sources, last week the Russian VKS suffered the largest for all time of operation of a one-time loss. With extensive fire in Syrian air base T-4 the fire spread to the Park of automotive equipment and after the explosion of one of the fuel tanks caught fire standing nearby in the Parking lot of four Russian helicopter. According to the same source, has done without human victims. The cause of the fire is now set.

Every day from Syria we have more information coming about a sharp intensification of combat actions in the areas of confrontation with radical Islamists ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra”.

It seems that the season of bad weather and the negotiation process, sharply reduced military activity by the Syrian army and Russian HQs, gave the militants breathing space, which they used to restore the combat capability of its worn in the autumn and winter fighting groups and are now trying to take a military revenge for the previous defeat.

All last week, the militants are trying to seize the initiative, striking in different areas without special, however, success. The most fierce fighting took place last week at the Palmyra direction, where the ISIS troops on Saturday tried to develop the offensive on the strategic highway linking Damascus to Palmyra. According to recent information, the Syrian army managed to contain the militants.

The main problem of the Islamists — they have no modern weapons.

To the Islamists it is now vital to strengthen their squads with heavy weapons, armored vehicles and artillery, as well as to get their hands on modern air defenses to eliminate the domination of the enemy in the sky. But until they can find sources of replenishment of their stocks of heavy weapons. Their patrons and curators from Saudi Arabia, Qatar themselves bogged down in the war in North Yemen against Houthi army and experiencing serious problems. Their other ally — Turkey — also limited in their ability to support ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra, fearing to be directly accused of supporting terrorism.

In these circumstances, the leaders of the Islamists rely on mobility of his troops, the suddenness of the attack and disguise. While it does not bring them much success.

It is obvious that if in the next months, Islamists will fail to reject the Syrian troops back to Damascus and return recaptured their territory, the fate of ISIS and its allies will be finally determined — they will remain trapped in the desert and lose the prospect of becoming the newest country in the Middle East.

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