Russia can shut down six companies of the automobile industry. Since 2012 the country has fallen, the demand for cars, according to the consulting company BCG.
The last record for sales of cars in the country was installed in 2012, then gained almost 3 million new vehicles. But since then, sales are on the decline, and large enterprises are insufficiently loaded, and carry serious losses.
“The best strategy in the new conditions — not to wait for market growth, and to realize that there is considerable excess capacity, and to take drastic measures to download them or convert” — said one of the authors of the report, BCG senior partner Vladislav Boutenko.
According to past projections, by 2020 the market would reach a volume of four million vehicles per year. In 2015 1.5 million.
Now in the baseline scenario is projected to be 1.9 million machines.
Experts explain the pessimism projected low cost of oil and the weakness of the national currency.
At BCG believe that at risk are manufacturers who have no strategic interests in Russia, with a focus on business development in other BRIC countries, as well as those who recently started production.
Last year the Russian market has left the American company GM, in the far East was suspended Assembly SsangYong, and Toyota Land Cruiser Prado production.
Analyst Vladimir Bespalov considers that the probability of closure of entire plants, but in the next two years this will not happen. Yet, in his opinion, companies will behave carefully — optimize staff and reduce work shifts.
The Ministry refute the opinions of experts. According to representatives of the Ministry, awaiting the recovery of the Russian car market with a competent support.
