China wants to repeat the success of the Crimean scenario in South-East Asia
Andrey Ivanov
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Photo: Zuma/ TASS
The China’s defense Minister Chang Wanquan called on his countrymen to prepare for “people’s war at sea to protect sovereignty of the country.” “The army, police and people must be prepared to mobilize to defend the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country”, — said the head of the military Department. Called to promote in the people the idea of a mass training on civil defense.
It is no secret that such bellicose rhetoric stems from the disputed Islands in the South China sea. On 12 July the international court of arbitration in the Hague ruled that China has no basis to claim the Islands, which actually belong to the Philippines. In response to press of China called the court a “puppet” of foreign forces, and the Chinese President XI Jinping said that the island has always been an inalienable part of China, and they are marked as Chinese on ancient maps.
Most importantly, the number of bellicose statements from Beijing is growing every day. And not only on the disputed Islands. “We urge the Japanese side to truly learn from the past, to adhere to the road of peaceful development, to proceed with caution in the military field and security…”, “…placing anti-missile complex rolling land-based missile for high altitude interception of missiles /THAAD/ in the Republic of Korea, Washington not only makes the Seoul to dance to their tune, but also casts a shadow of a new Cold war in northeast Asia… Here are the messages today on the front page of the state news Agency “Xinhua”.
Simply put, China is increasing its power and warned all the neighbors about the consequences of hostile action. In turn, the US and its allies in Southeast Asia make attacks against China. That is, the situation is heating up constantly.
The current statement of Chinese defense Minister about the “people’s war” already leave no doubt that the case goes to a major conflict. Which few people want, but which is almost inevitable.
— The words of the Minister of defense of China related to the reaction of China to the Hague court ruling on the disputed Islands, says the head of the School of Oriental studies of the HSE Alexey Maslov.
Chinese representatives were not present at the trial, generally, he refused to obey his decisions.
On the one hand, China has stated that the internationalization of the conflict, the involvement in it of other States. On the other hand, Beijing has hinted that he would like the support of Russia on the issue of the disputed Islands. That is, China is still trying to create a kind of international opinion. Current court decision — the other side of the internationalization of the conflict.
Now China can not respond to it. Deteriorating social situation in the country, there are problems in the economy. Therefore, private citizens must show that the position of the state leadership over the Islands remains unchanged.
China rather harshly States that the disputed Islands — one of the few items that China is willing to use military force. As they say, to protect its sovereignty. China has always stressed that he is not going to invade someone else’s territory and use force against other countries. But in this case it is believed that the island Chinese and their need to protect.
We must remember that in General, China has seen some reduction in enthusiasm for the development of the country. An impulse, which was in the 1990s and 2000s, greatly weakened. China need to intensify Patriotic impulse, which weakens. It is no accident the Minister of defense called to the classroom for civil defense. Supposedly there are countries that do not want China’s development. Beijing has repeatedly said that all the enemies that America stands for, including the decision of the Hague court. China just needs to show his citizens of the new Patriotic idea.
In my opinion, to fight for real nobody wants. Any military actions near the disputed Islands cast China for many years and have completely changed Chinese politics. That is, China from a peaceful state turns into a state that is ready to fight.
Of course, war is not necessary neighbors in Southeast Asia. Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam are recipients of this conflict. And we must not forget that potential adversaries is both major trade partners of China. Beijing is not ready to take such losses.
I believe, China wants to show itself as a military power. For a long time it was positioned as an economic power. Now there is a desire to be a military power. In the last few years China has radically changed its military programme. We need to explain why the money invested in the defense. We have to show that China is ready to fight.
I don’t think that the current Minister of defense of the PRC could lead to war. But it seriously worsens the situation in the region. And this is done on the background that in September will meet the G-20 in Hangzhou, where they will be addressed economic issues.
“SP”: — the Number of harsh statements from the Chinese side increases. No fears that Beijing could trigger a conflict?
— In recent years, China has changed his entire rhetoric. He wants to show the world its ability to deal with protracted conflicts and the conflict in the South China sea is extremely protracted.
China also looking very closely at the Ukrainian problem. As it is about Russia, what was the reaction of the world community. China wants to do something similar to XI Jinping was evaluated as “a tough guy”. Because while XI Jinping in terms of conflict resolution, nothing outstanding did not commit. And I am afraid that this attempt to repeat the Russian experience can lead to a prolonged conflict.
“SP”: — What scale may be a conflict?
— There is a possibility of a third world war, although very small. Still, there is no country that would be interested in the war. In the region there is no country, which would work for the military-industrial complex.
But this can be beneficial to the war? First of all, for the United States. They will be able to represent China as an aggressive country. Like, before he seemed so peaceful, but in reality he is a dangerous enemy, and everyone needs help from Washington.
Conflict can be beneficial to the US satellites in the region: Japan and South Korea. They all warily watching China’s rising power, especially on the growth of economic power.
But the war is unfavorable to Thailand and the Philippines who are directly involved in the conflict. If war breaks out, everything will collapse overnight, is based on what the economy of these countries. First of all, tourism, and manufacturing small goods.
But all the rhetoric of the parties brings public opinion to the fact that war is possible. Therefore, the possibility of local clashes, the creation of large military bases China on the disputed Islands. Can be placed tactical rockets of near and average range. In fact, China otherwise and does not consider the territory, and in another way, it cannot be used. But the deployment of missiles will cause a reaction of other States.
We see that recently, the United States resumed military contacts with the Philippines. Countries can turn to Washington for protection. And then the possible conflict is not between countries of South-East Asia, between China and the United States. And it’s a very bad scenario. And Russia in this case will be hard choice.
On the one hand, we do not need to get involved in a distant conflict that promises no benefit. On the other hand, the growth of military-technical cooperation with China is pushing for the fact that we have to make a choice in favor of China. No apparent positive effects.
“SP”: — We will not be able to maintain neutrality?
— It is extremely difficult. China insists on some decisive action on the part of Russia. Now we are able to maintain neutrality. Moscow claims that it was not her conflict, and she cannot interfere. In my opinion, this is a reasonable policy.
Leading researcher of the Institute for Far Eastern studies Paul Kamennovnot see the statement of Chinese defense Minister is nothing extraordinary:
— Since the founding of the PRC there is the ideological thesis of the support of the army on the masses. Now the problem for the defense is vested in the PLA and armed police. As to the defence of the coast, it is expected the participation of the masses, because not everywhere it’s under the control of the police and military. But this long-term installation, not meaning that in China someone has to attack.
“SP”: — But in China, to calculate the possible scenarios of war.
— This is the task of the Minister of defence. The military doctrine of China is completely defensive, and it built the Chinese army. China doesn’t want to be the first to start a war, but is preparing to respond with a counterattack.
I think that the current statements may not lead to anything. No aggression Beijing does not show. He just cares about the safety of sea lanes passing through the South China sea. Because 60% of oil requirements are provided by the export from other countries.
“SP”: — what is the increase in intensity of Chinese rhetoric?
— China is preparing to defend its interests, and for this he modernized the army. But this does not mean that he is interested in armed conflict. On the contrary, the whole strategy starting from 1980-ies, is based on collaboration with all. And the PRC has achieved certain successes thanks to the cooperation with all countries of the world, including in the military field. Even with the United States were joint naval exercises.
“SP”: — But the conflict can be interested.
— No world war over these Islands would not. May arise an armed conflict, but it will be local. To him China is well prepared. Every year the military budget. But all this within the framework of a defensive military doctrine.
“SP”: — How would like China to see Russia’s role in the event of a conflict?
— China is not interested in drawing Russia. There is a cooperation agreement of 2001. For China, the observance of all its provisions is much more important than a local conflict.
