At the summit in Sochi, Russia took a course of rapprochement with ASEAN
Andrey Polunin
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A joint photograph of heads of delegations — participants of the summit Russia — ASEAN in Sochi (Photo: Alexey Druzhinin/press-service of the President of the Russian Federation/TASS)
Thursday, may 19, in Sochi opened the third summit of Russia and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Speaking in the evening at a gala reception in honor of leaders of ASEAN countries, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the Sochi Declaration the summit will be fixed intention to bring partnership to a new level. “What brings us together is the commonality of approach to the solution of many urgent problems,” — said Putin.
On the first day of the summit the Russian leader held a string of bilateral meetings. At the talks withthe Prime Minister of Singapore Lee Hsien Loong , he noted the growth of mutual investments (volume of Russian investments of $ 2.5 billion, Singapore in the Russian economy — $ 1 billion). In turn, the Singapore Prime Minister stressed the need for justifying the Treaty establishing a free trade area between Singapore and the EAEC.
The results of some other meetings reported the press Secretary of the Russian President, Dmitry Peskov. So, speaking about the meeting of Putin with his counterpart from MyanmarThen Jo, Peskov said that Russia and Myanmar will prepare a road map on cooperation in 2017, and drew attention to the President expressed Myanmar’s readiness to accept the Russian tourists”.
After meeting with the Sultan of Brunei Bolkiah Hassanal by Peskov told about the possible purchase Brunei Russian Sukhoi Superjet. In addition, according to the press Secretary, the parties may cooperate in the oil and gas industry.
During the meeting with Prime Minister of Laos thonglun sisulit Putin stressed that in Russia the Prime Minister of Laos know as a good friend of our country. The Russian leader also held bilateral meetings with the leaders of Thailand, Cambodia, Malaysia and Vietnam. They discussed various aspects of cooperation between the countries — from tourism to military-technical cooperation.
It should be noted that Putin’s meeting with leaders of the “Asian dragons”, common market than the EU market, was held hot on the heels of the visit to Sochi the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and on the eve of the June visit of Russian President to China.
Overall, the impression is that Moscow is trying to prove its “pivot to the East”, proclaimed in 2014, ceases to be a political project, and is not confined to more strategic partnership with Beijing. However, the policy of rapprochement with Japan and ASEAN is fraught with risks. Yes, Moscow in this case avoids the role of the younger female relatives of China and gets the trump cards for negotiations with Beijing. But, on the other hand, she embarks on a dangerous field on which the conflict between different parts of Asia.
What is behind South-East of the maneuvers of the Kremlin, will our new partners to compete with China?
— To replace the us with China will not be able neither Japan nor ASEAN — said the head of the Center for Japanese studies, Institute of Far Eastern studies Valery Kistanov. — But they can make Russian relations in the region more balanced, and lower unit weight of China in this relationship — however, not much.
Judge for yourself. In the relations of Japan and Russia, the atmosphere seems to have improved as a result of the visit of Shinzo Abe, his perseverance to meet with Putin and to solve the territorial issue. But how realistic hand moved to Sochi — is still unknown. There are General statements that new approach, and leaders have agreed together to solve the problem — and that’s all. Moreover, immediately after the talks in Sochi, the representative of the Japanese side stated that “the new approach” does not mean changing the basic position of Tokyo in the territorial question: should Russia return all four Islands — and nothing else.
As for the development of economic partnership, Shinzo Abe has proposed a set of areas where the Japanese could cooperate with Russia. It all looks very good, but many of the items offers require a completely different situation in the Russian economy.
For example, the paragraph about how to turn our far East manufacturing base, export-oriented. How do you imagine the implementation of this paragraph? Especially considering the fact that the region has little population, it deflates, and that there is no necessary infrastructure? In other words, the proposals of the Japanese good, but it is absolutely unclear how to implement them.
Against this background, it is hardly possible to say that the rapprochement with Japan is a counterweight to China. Moreover, the volume of mutual trade we have with Tokyo is about three times lower than with Beijing.
“SP”: — And how are the prospects of development of relations with ASEAN?
— Even more difficult. China and Japan — still our border neighbors, and ASEAN is the South China sea. Yes, this is a huge market, it is a single integrated structure, and it is important to develop the ASEAN relationship. But deep about the prospects of substitution of China, I would say not became.
For example, Japan and our neighbour, and the third largest economy in the world. But Russia accounts for only 0.3% of its foreign investment. The significance of Russia’s foreign trade turnover of Japan — 2-3%, and the significance of Japan for us is 3.5%.
With ASEAN, the situation is even less brilliant.
But China in our backyard — the total length of the Russian-Chinese border is more than 4 thousand kilometers. In addition, Beijing institutionally we are tied together are the BRICS, the Shanghai cooperation organization (SCO). Finally, we’re going with the Chinese to coordinate the New silk road with the EEU. Nothing nor Japan, nor even with the ASEAN countries.
Therefore, I think China in the foreseeable future will remain our main partner in the economy. Moreover, our partnership is supported and yet the coincidence of interests between Moscow and Beijing in a strategic military region. All this leads to the fact that we — especially in the conditions of aggravation of relations with the West and anti-Russian sanctions — will continue to largely rely on China.
Yes, we should not confine itself to China, and needs to break out of the role his younger cousin. But to make it easy.
“SP”: — let’s Imagine that we have begun to expand cooperation with Japan and ASEAN countries. The United States will be regarded as a threat, it will counteract convergence?
— The objective situation in the same Japanese-Russian relations does not allow our countries to become important partners in the economic sphere. And why did this situation even get involved the United States? We don’t represent any threat to Americans in the Japanese markets, we can’t compete with. On the contrary, Washington the postwar period was the dominant partner in Tokyo in the foreign field.
In this case the United States there is simply no need to put us spoke in the wheel. Suffice it to say that our investment in Japan is zero. From Russia every year there is huge capital flight of over $ 50 billion in 2015 — but they are not funneling in Japan and offshore. What kind of investment cooperation can be discussed in this situation?! In fact, it boils down to is that we entreat the Japanese to invest in the Russian economy, and they don’t particularly aspire to this. USA in such a situation we can simply ignore.
And about ASEAN, I did not say. Raw materials — hydrocarbons, non-ferrous metals, seafood and timber (the main export positions of the Russian Federation in trade with Japan) — we in Southeast Asia are not persecuted. And of industrial products with us especially there is nothing to sell except weapons. Yes, in Malaysia and Vietnam we are selling fighter jets and helicopters. But most likely, it is from time to time.
Now the US is talking about the need to lift the embargo on arms supplies to Vietnam. Once that happens, the Americans have good will press on the South-Eastern arms market. As a result, our trade with Vietnam falls and Vietnam is our gateway to the ASEAN.
In short, like it or not, ASEAN will not be a powerful economic mainstay in the near future…
— The idea of Moscow is not to counter China, Japan and ASEAN, — said head of chair of Moscow University for the Humanities, Director, centre for South-East Asia, Australia and Oceania, Institute of Oriental studies Dmitry Mosyakov. — We are talking about building a free and mutually beneficial relations with all partners in South-East Asia. This allows you to balance the Russian policy in the region and gives Moscow ample opportunities in the political and economic cooperation. In this case, the chances of using Asian resources for our national development, including the Russian Far East, significantly increase.
“SP”: — How to treat China?
— I think Beijing understands that the correction of the Russian policy is not directed against China, it only responds to certain national interests of the Russian Federation. China itself is doing exactly the same thing. For example, Beijing is now implementing the New silk road project, but the first trains on it he allowed to bypass Russia. Why? China believes that this route suits him more now.
Note that in our initiatives, no call. All proposals for the development of cooperation with Japan and ASEAN countries, which was discussed at the summit in Sochi, only strengthen peace, stability and security in Asia.
“SP”: — Developing cooperation with ASEAN, we come into conflict with the United States?
— The United States in its confrontation with China trying to turn Southeast Asia into opponents of Beijing. In fact, Washington had placed these countries the role of cordon Sanitaire surrounding China.
From this point of view, to develop relations with Russia, countries of ASEAN at hand: they get more leeway. The leadership of these countries there is an understanding that you can not put all eggs in American basket. Moscow can take advantage of it…
