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Repeat the Syrian peace agreement the fate of the Minsk agreements?

Повторят ли сирийские мирные договоренности судьбу минских соглашений?

Despite the opposition that accompanies a peace agreement in Syria, we must admit that unlike similar “Minsk document” designed to stop the war in the South-East of Ukraine, until the current is observed. But how many have the patience of the parties to the conflict?

As recent events have demonstrated, the victim of a serious defeat in the Syrian conflict Ankara though and seeks revenge, but on open activities. Continuing raids by special forces and artillery shelling by the Turkish military in Syria – a well-known technique of Ukrainian armed forces: to show how bad the opponent that violates all agreements.

But in “obstrela and show” can play together, what we learned again from the experience in the South-East of Ukraine. So, in the beginning of last year, before the winter fighting in Debaltsevo “boiler”, the monitoring group of the OSCE was captured on video, as the representatives of the Ministry of defence DND using artillery reconnaissance radar “Aistenok” flog volleys Ukrainian artillery in Donetsk. Judging from the reports of the Organization for security and cooperation in Europe, observers have recognized the fact of shelling from the APU, putting in all the concrete data: not only the time and place, but also the calibre, the approximate location of the positions where it was fired.

To monitor peace agreements in Syria our military authority has gone further by expanding on the territory of the Arab countries are not small “Istence”, and kits of instrumental artillery reconnaissance and two unmanned aerial vehicles.The official information is clearly stated: “to monitor the cases of the use of artillery”.

According to reports, two involved UAVs are not repeatedly lighted in the Syrian sky “Eagles”, and released the Ural works of civil aviation under license from Israeli IAI UAV “Outpost”. They are not only great range but also extensive on-Board load, including advanced optical and electronic systems.

According to the representative of the Ministry of defense, currently “Outposts” – one of the most advanced drones in the Arsenal of the Russian army. They allow you to conduct reconnaissance in adverse weather conditions day and night. As the interlocutor “VPK”: “Heavy artillery among unmanned aerial vehicles”.

At least two “Outpost” were lost for unknown reasons in the course of events in the South-East of Ukraine. First missed summer 2014, second – at the end of may 2015. It is unknown whether they were Ukrainian security forces shot down or crashed due to technical problems.

Accurate data about what means of artillery reconnaissance of the Russian defense Ministry has sent to Syria, not yet. According to available information used in Ukraine “Istence” used by government forces in the strife-stricken country for a long time, at least since the summer-autumn of last year. It can be assumed that the more serious the stations of type “Zoo”, released able to detect enemy projectiles and missiles at ranges of up to 30 kilometers.

At the time of the events in southeastern Ukraine, Russia has got enough experience how to deal with a Contracting party to the conflict, playing on the destabilization of the situation, and get on with the various monitoring organizations, is clearly hostile to our country.

“What is your evidence?”

Even when the electoral Commission the OSCE the shelling of Donetsk by the Ukrainian military objective monitoring data was difficult to ignore. It is possible to assume that in Syria, monitoring groups will not be able to ignore the facts of incessant shelling of the sovereign territory of Syria from Turkey, if radar artillery reconnaissance in the presence of the inspectors will indicate where the rockets came and shells, and on the picture of “Outpost” in these places will be clearly visible firing positions.

Note that prior to the signing of the peace Treaty at the airbase “Hamim” was deployed aircraft integrated intelligence Tu-214Р, which, despite all the associated problems, is one of the most serious intelligence platforms in the fleet of the Russian space forces. According to the “Military-industrial courier”, deployed to Syria Board is equipped with the latest radar complex with a large working distance. It supplements the default set of electronic intelligence “Faction”.

We can assume that the latest air reconnaissance performed in the sky of Syria only, but very important task – to open in advance of the possible deployment of Turkish troops on the territory of the country. But judging by the fact that “the 214-th” immediately after the signing of the peace agreement went back to the aviation plant in Kazan, Russia currently considers it unlikely Ankara’s decision to start a land war with Damascus.


The Pentagon versus the CIA

In the next few weeks, according to the newspaper Defense News, U.S. defense Secretary Ashton Carter will announce the beginning of a serious reform of the American armed forces. The main areas – cybersecurity and the expansion of powers of authorities in data collection. According to the head of the Pentagon, a part of the upcoming changes will require legislative approval.

Currently it is difficult to understand what reform is about, but some assumptions suggest themselves, especially considering the statements by Carter on the expansion of powers in the field of data collection.

With the beginning announced by the Bush administration back in 2001 “global war on terror” the Pentagon has faced a legal collision, not allowing the maintenance of army scouts “direct action” on the territory of other States, not with the United States at war.

Former post of the head of the Pentagon Donald Rumsfeld insisted that American special forces have to explore in countries that are hostile to the U.S. a terrorist organization. But at that time it was the Central intelligence Agency, was hastening to put on their military field. However, with some manipulation the solution was found – the Pentagon began to recruit in some countries their agents, to create a base of drones and insurgency.

Since 2001, the military led a deliberate policy of capacity-building intelligence making the joint special operations command (JSOC) an analogue of the CIA, and in fact the army in the army with its fleet of UAVS, a modern means of situational awareness and technical intelligence, and most importantly – “muscles” in the form of special forces.

According to American experts, at the present time, JSOC, associated until recently primarily with force of its constituent special forces Delta and DEVGRU, is a complete intelligence apparatus, sometimes seriously on the world stage took the place of the CIA. Suffice it to say that a fleet of armed drones, subordinated directly to the command, equal to the number of UAVS used by the CIA.

The Pentagon during the reign of Barack Obama has repeatedly come into direct conflict for spheres of influence with the Central intelligence Agency, but preventing the military authorities to deploy the full force of the laws and regulations have not been cancelled. It is not excluded that the current head of the Pentagon will be able to make long-awaited changes in the legal framework.

What does “cyber threats” that are going to fight the us military? The answer is quite simple: JSOC has long lobbied for the ability to inflict physical blows to the places where are cyber attacks directed against U.S. interests. Moreover, it is not only about the attacks carried out by hackers, but also on the prevention of possible attacks. It is noteworthy that such operations, the Pentagon was planning to classified as strategic.

If the suppositions are correct, in fact in the U.S. another intelligence Agency, the CIA superior capabilities, but focused primarily on the exploration and extraction of information, and the application of fast and hard blows at the enemy.


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