The West would tear Belarus from Russia, to destroy the Union of the two countries, and this is what happens currently. This opinion was expressed on April 26 Colossal Russian political scientist Pavel Svyatenkov, commenting on the intention of Belarus and the United States agree on a mutual return of ambassadors.
“Amid a sharp deterioration of relations between Moscow and the West Alexander Lukashenkaruled bonuses, which are expressed in the fact that it is removed from sanctions, with him re-establish relationships, it is no longer Europe’s last dictator, and the like. In this case, nothing surprising happens. It is clear that Lukashenko seeks to use the crisis in relations between Moscow and the West in order to strengthen its position in the West. But practice shows that this kind of politicians the West still does not forgive anything, and at the next stage of Lukashenka may be the victim of a coup like the one that tore down the Yanukovych regime. Another thing is that now, seeing the spilled grain, which can be safely peck, the Belarusian authorities will do,” svyatenkov said.
His concerns about the fate of the Belarusian President in that case, if his flirtations with the West goes too far, and shares the leading researcher of the Russian Institute of strategic studies Oleg Nemensky.
“Last year we observed that the policy of the West towards Belarus has changed and it is a rational choice of the West. None of the attempts to depose Lukashenka by some variant of the “Maidan” or some conspiracy of elites has failed. This remains the General attitude of the West towards Belarus as an instrument in relations with Russia. That is, Belarus is not a full-fledged state. This state, which you can use to exert pressure on Russia. In this respect, the fate of democracy in Belarus the West cares much less than the opportunity to improve their position in the country amid increasing confrontation with Russia. Belarus, in turn, uses the chance to improve relations with the United States and the European Union, because it is really important to weaken the old system of rejection by the West of the Belarusian regime, which persists, but can be mitigated,” said Nemensky.
He recalled that many years from Russia in the address of Belarus were accused associated with its poor relations with the West. “For a long time as time from Moscow sounded accusations against Minsk in bad relations with the West, because it was complicated and the Russian relations with Belarus. Although in the current environment it is clear that all this is done by the West in order to obtain additional leverage to put pressure on Russia”, — stated Nemensky.
He explained that Belarus has developed a system in which virtually the entire political elite, all surrounded by Lukashenko, with the exception of himself, is Pro-Western. “For Russia, in Belarus there is no alternative to Lukashenko,” — said the expert. — Russia there is no one else to talk to, and, respectively, and for the people of Belarus, too, there is no alternative, as people set up Pro-Russian. Lukashenko also does not tolerate in the field of Pro-Russian no competition, and he can be a good idea to eliminate any beginnings of alternatives on the Pro field. And it creates a dangerous situation in the relations with Belarus, with the arrival in Minsk of the American Ambassador in a natural way will be an occasion to enhance Pro-American sentiments among political elites of Belarus”.
According to him, it is likely that the us Embassy will become the center of attraction for the political and business elite. “This promises significant strengthening of influence of the West on Belarus from inside, through work with the public and the elites on a completely legal basis,” said Nemensky.
He is convinced that the United States still refer to Lukashenko as a dictator who must be deposed. And the American Ambassador would be to work on the preparation of the script offset Lukashenko and the formation of a new Pro-Western government of Belarus, especially because the frames already exist.
“That is, Lukashenko, improving relations with the West, playing with fire, because it can burn on it. The examples are not far to seek. Yanukovych also tried to improve relations with the West,” reminded Oleg Nemensky.
The organization “Maidan” in Minsk, in his view, does not Bode well and to Russia’s relations with Belarus. “Despite the fact that Lukashenko is Russia’s a very difficult partner, Russia has traditionally unhappy with his policies, I must admit that its offset will be a huge blow to the Russian interests and the Russian-Belarusian relations, as alternative to it at this pitch. It is possible to recognize that the overall return of the us Ambassador to Minsk is quite a disturbing event for the current Belarusian system, and for Russian-Belarusian relations,” he concluded.
As reported Colossal, charge d’affaires of USA in Belarus Scott Rowland said that this year, Washington and Minsk can discuss the possibility of mutual return of ambassadors. He noted that the return of the American Ambassador in Belarus would be “a very good step forward for the development of relations between the two countries”. Recall that the last US Ambassador to Belarus Karen Stewart has been deleted from Minsk at the end of 2007. Since then, the US diplomatic mission in Belarus is headed by the chargé d’affaires.
