Photo: Russian su-24 aircraft overflying the American destroyer “Donald cook” in the Baltic sea.
Can we consider the incident with the Russian su-27 over the Baltic waters by accident or unfortunate misunderstanding between partners? Is there not in all this history with accusations of traces the continuing unfolding of the great theatre of the world conflict in fact, the entire Western border of the Russian Federation.
We will remind that on Monday the Russian su-27 approached the U.S. spy planes, RC-135U at a distance too dangerous. This was reported by European and American media. In particular, the TV channel CNN referring to the representative of the European command of U.S. forces Danny Hernandez reported that the Russian su-27 intercepted the spy plane RC-135 “unsafe and unprofessional manner” come close to a distance of 15 metres from the edge of the wing of an American plane. Hernandez noted that such actions could lead to unnecessary escalation between the countries, and added that the U.S. would appeal the incident.
Shortly before it was unsafe, according to Washington, the contacts of the Russians with U.S. military ship in the Baltic. On 14 April a Russian su-24 on Thursday flew near the destroyer “Donald cook”, carried out joint with Poland exercises in neutral waters. According to the representative of the Ministry of defense of Russia major-General Igor Konashenkov, the aircraft in accordance with all international norms, was performed routine training flights about 70 kilometers from the Russian naval base.
If to put aside reports jingoes that our supposedly showed “the Yankees” and aerobatics, and “clocks”, and scared to death of their much-vaunted “Rambo” in this whole picture is a little consolation. First, rather alarmed reaction of the U.S. Secretary of state John Kerry, who, despite a complete explanation on the incident, Minister for foreign Affairs of Russia Sergey Lavrov, stressed that “Donald cook” had a right and could open fire on him approaching Russian aircraft. That is, the highest U.S. officials do not rule out this possibility, otherwise their rhetoric would be much more peaceful. In this sense, secondly, it is not a sin to remember, than has ended such “maneuvers” in the years preceding the collapse of the USSR.
March 13, 1986, the American cruiser “Yorktown” and the destroyer “Caron” provocative visit to 6 miles in our territorial waters in the Black sea near the southern coast of the Crimea. The ships worked all electronic means of reconnaissance. The Soviet press then rather poorly covered this incident. Officially, the events were announced as follows: long way of agreeing to take decisive action not allowed to give a fitting rebuff to the perpetrators, but to the next such visit, our sailors prepared.
But actually neither the command of the black sea fleet of the USSR or the tail feathers of naval units of the border troops did not wait from Moscow for guidance, despite numerous requests. Moscow, solemnly declared at the XXVII Congress of the CPSU about the idea of mutual security with the United States, actually took a course on the change of the external state priorities in the military sphere. Not everyone, of course, it is understood not all could make a prediction about future events, but we can remember the speech Gorbachev, trying it to the rhetoric of current President of the Russian Federation.
“Security, if we talk about the relations between the USSR and the USA, can only be mutual, and if we take international relations as a whole — only of the universal. The highest wisdom is not to care only about themselves, and especially at the expense of the other side…. We attach great importance to the status and nature of relations between the Soviet Union and the United States. Our countries have many points of contact, there is an objective need to live in peace with one another, to cooperate on an equal and mutually beneficial basis”, — stressed Mikhail Sergeyevich.
These lines can now safely enter the texts in the Kremlin speech writers preparing speeches for Putin. They are not much different from his rhetoric-hungry Western rukovoditeli and ready to any compromises and concessions, even at the cost of the lives of fellow citizens.
And what happened at the Crimean coast two years later, when the last General Secretary of the USSR Mikhail Gorbachev had already “celebrated” with a visit to the United States, where it entered the wider American society and signed a Treaty eliminating an entire class of nuclear weapons? And before that at Reykjavik the Soviet-American negotiation process on strategic offensive arms said literally the following: “With all the drama of Reykjavik is not a defeat, it’s a breakthrough that we first peeked over the horizon”.
In early February 1988, old friends of Russian sailors — two warships of the 6th fleet United States cruiser “Yorktown” and the destroyer “Caron” again entered the Black sea from the Bosphorus Strait and headed towards the southern coast of Crimea. Ignoring the repeated warnings of the boundary ships “Ishmael” and “Yamal” and patrol ship “Selfless” and “SKR-6” closer to the territorial waters of the USSR, the American ships didn’t turn with the provocative course.
The living participants of the incident confirmed that the mariners have asked the command of the permission to open warning fire. But the answer did not wait. Moscow was silent again, realizing that there is a great risk of starting a third world war, in the fear which lived the whole world. Received an order to resolve the issue without opening fire. And its decided. The initiative and courage of the Soviet seamen had no parallel in history. Small Soviet “punt”, as the pirate Morgan, took the American military ships by boarding, after an attempt to push them beyond the territorial waters of the USSR. Some Russian sources now report that “Soviet sailors “piled on” Americans in 1988. In fact, they gave their lives covered the cowardice and indecision of his high command. About how now in the new Russia Russian soldiers and local militia (including civilians) with the order “not a step forward” to cover the feebleness and treachery of the Kremlin leadership.
Nevertheless “the image of the USSR”, due to similar responses to American provocations, has changed for the better. In the summer of 1988 was a historical turning point and the visit of U.S. President Ronald Reagan to Moscow. After this visit there was a full inclusion of the personal factor of the Soviet and American elites.
Next was to meet Gorbachev-Bush in Malta, the recognition that the Soviet Union and the U.S. are no longer adversaries, the announcement of the cessation of the “cold war” and confrontation. Public support for the new administration’s policy of perestroika. Repeated contacts by telephone with Bush at his meetings in Moscow with James Baker in connection with the unification of Germany is actually pushing the GDR into Germany (read the transfer directory in the Soviet part of the American, the analogy — Donbass and Ukraine). Promoting the problems start, the decisive shift in the negotiations on conventional armed forces in Europe, joint acts in connection with aggression of Saddam Hussein against Kuwait. Bush first large-scale raised the question of a “new world order” after the cold war.
According to some Russian experts, the incidents such as happened in the Baltic, may be repeated. USA at the moment, as thirty years ago, decisively, speak with Russia from a position of strength. There is a high probability that the incident was not accidental border incident, which lately is becoming more and planned military action. Such observation aircraft the Americans have just three, they are based in Nebraska. That is, to the Baltic sea im half a planet in a straight line. According to “Opinion” Americans don’t trust these machines, even to his closest allies and I’m afraid it’s not what to base (e.g. in Poland), but also just down to earth even for a short time. In order to do their job, the aircraft electronic intelligence requires only a few minutes, and the rest of the flight will be held in the “idle mode”. There is a version that the main reason for carrying out a risky operation in a foreign American aviation for the region was the need to identify the coordinates of the deployed not so long ago in Kaliningrad oblast divisions of s-400 and the fixing of the parameters in REFs.
It is possible that the importance of the equipment installed on the aircraft, crew and the associated hysteria that swept the us.
Over the past year, this is not the first incident in the region between Russian planes and NATO facilities.
As some analysts suggest, it is in the Baltic region, the Americans have planned the next “boiling point” after Donbass, Transdnistria, Syria, Turkey, Nagorno Karabakh. The level of confrontation in the Baltic region is growing with a fantastic pace. It is a regional arms race in which the positions of the parties are not clarified to the end and wonder where the real limit discharge hostile atmosphere. Putin’s Russia and the late Soviet Union, slowly but surely, ultimatums, manipulation and provocation, are dependent on foreign markets and financing is no adequate answers, driven into the frame of a new world order with a single control.
This is one of the already previously announced and confirmed conclusions drawn from the incident in the Baltic. With regard to military preparations devoid of sovereignty of Ukraine in Kherson region and Odessa, there is a high probability of provocations in the Crimean direction. In particular, the very explicit allusions began to sound from Kiev over the Kerch bridge. Last summer, the U.S. threatened to bomb a bridge across the Strait. Recently on the official Internet representation of the President of Ukraine appeared petition with a request for the destruction of the power bridge Kerch.
Who benefits from these provocations and what is their purpose? Of course, Russia and personally Putin do not need them. Especially don’t need our military, who, like the sailors in the mid-eighties, at the crucial moment may face a terrible dilemma — to decide to open (or not open) the fire against U.S. military and NATO. And this is a different level of confrontation, not comparable with bombing against Syrian armed becausev or boilers against sham by the Ukrainian neo-fascists. And to take responsibility for this decision to the Russian people — lives and deprivation.
To pick up the next news wave of patriotism to the propaganda machine of the Kremlin is easy. Here is a prepared television spiritual bonds on all occasions, performed by the most experienced TV presenters and all Madagascar planet. But the specific jokes on the verge of war with the US (even at the hands of their European satellites) is not the best option. Although not the fact that this issue has been settled by Americans from a geopolitical agenda. Provocation is beneficial to the Americans, held deep by the standards of their ambitions and demands of the crisis. So the arms race at all times became for US a lifesaver, allowing legally and unquestioned successfully transfered from production and sales to all regions of the world of military products. Including equipment and weapons obsolete and to be written off. What we observe both in Ukraine and in the middle East and in Eastern Europe.
By the way the American destroyers with elements of missile defense “Donald cook” around the European seas seems to have become “duty” provocateur. Baltic similar situation had arisen in 2014, when Russian military aircraft, according to Russian media, in fact, completely neutralized the signals equipment. Then “Donald cook” was feared in Odessa and Romania, raising the degree of military hysteria and appropriate “patriots”.
Generally those units that are in the Black and Baltic seas, even if they wanted to, could not cause significant damage to the fleets and the territory of Russia. In the case of aggression the time of their life would have amounted to a few minutes. The purpose of these manoeuvres is strengthening military escalation, the escalation in the degree of anti-Russian sentiment in Europe, “knocking out” the new figures in the budgets of the U.S. and the EU on military needs. Ideally military provocation and retraction of the Russian Federation in yet another local conflict. Whether as a participant, whether in the role of a third party — the defender of the Russian population. For “hawks” — it does not matter.+
Does the Kremlin adequate and predictable response and the algorithm of actions? Judging by the events of the last two years, official Moscow is not ready to play with his own agenda due to its absence. It simply is not. The authorities are more concerned with preserving their own image and safety in the internal political field and ready to accept any world order that will not prejudice the business appetites of the elite. Moscow ready to make concessions, to sacrifice the national interests, the standard of living of people and, actually, themselves lives, ready to participate in any crazy projects anywhere in the world, just to fit into the proposed Western partners of the scheme and the rules.
And if the Russian plane was shot down, it is unlikely we would have waited for a harsh response from the Kremlin. At least one direction. As is the case with “tomato” response to a military incident in Turkey, most likely, the power in one hand would introduce a series of restrictions for the Balts or the poles, but the other hurried to sign another ultimatum said that local officials accelerated the process of its return to the whip of the partner of the Kiev regime.
