When the country is waging a proxy war, then in its delaying for an indefinite time, you can still retrieve any dividends, both political and economic.
If the country is involved directly in a military conflict, here in the first place is time – the faster a bitter end will be completed the war, the in the best position to be the winner.
If You remember, I was initially against the involvement of Russia in the Syrian conflict (“Russia still dragged into a military conflict: what next?”), primarily due to the increase in times of threats of terrorist attacks against the civilian population, but also because of the danger for a long time to get bogged down in the Syrian desert.
Unfortunately, both of my assumptions came true: a terrorist attack against Russian avilaynera with numerous victims; clouded the prospect of a decent RF output from the Syrian war.
As they say, began in Syria for the health, but at this stage all is going to the funeral. Over the past two years formed a strong opinion that Putin, being able nicely to start any combination, does not know how to finish it – Georgia, Ukraine, Syria are a striking example.
What are the risks of prolonging the war in Syria for the Russian airforce?
The fact that at least in the Russian media and serves the Islamists in the form of stupid and cruel baranabas, but even they, over the few months of the war have managed to adapt to the tactics they used against the Russian military.
West also managed to move out of “grogg” and began actively to help their Syrian “sons of a bitch” the supply of new weapons.
I have knowingly used against the Islamists, the expression “Barnaby”: whatever the newest weapon they can’t foist that will be of little – to use it effectively, they will not. And Afghanistan is a vivid example. According to the memoirs of one of the American experts, who trained the Mujahideen use of stinger, two dozen rockets fired at its eyes on the Soviet planes and helicopters, not one hit the target…
Therefore, the frequent loss of the Russian VKS (two helicopters and four crew members, for this level of war, obviously too much), says that Americans had to equip “their” (and probably not only them) not only modern weapons, but their experts who clearly do not disdain to use the weapons against its own, though its formal ally, in the face of Russia.
What to do in this situation?
The easiest way was just to leave Syria, but, unfortunately, at the moment it is very unprofitable for Moscow both politically and economically.
So you need to follow the example of the Americans: the most urgent way to maximize the Syrian army Russian military as permitted by the circumstances, and technically finishing off of the Islamists taking their capital of Raqqa, a quick “happy feet” from Syria.
Because the long delay of the war had already begun to lead to higher losses among the Russian military – you need to leave Syria until the moment the loss is not turned into a snowball, increasing in his eyes.
