The attempted coup in Turkey, may have dramatic consequences for the state.
Over the past century in this country there is confrontation between the secular and the religious direction in the policy. Traditionally Islamic country was radically rebuilt and modernised by Kemal Ataturk in the twenties of the last century.
Show more… That Ataturk abolished the Caliphate, established a Republican form of government and rigid methods of a secular Foundation of the Turkish state.
Mild attempts to return to “traditional values” were made more than once. But every time to protect the secular state arose army that does not stand on ceremony with the Islamists. If the generals thought that there is a threat of restoration of the Caliphate, they power pressure is removed from the power fond of religious populism of politicians.
Erdogan has for a long time were irritated that part of Turkish society, which for decades protects the inviolability of secularism. Erdogan aims to become the leader of the “Islamic world”. During the years of his reign, he drastically increased the role of religion in government, and critics increasingly call it an Islamic dictator.
Is it any wonder that the military in this regard has accumulated to the President of Turkey a lot of claims.
But Erdogan himself knew whence was worth the wait threats. All I remember about the military coup in 1980, when the power in the country for three years was captured by the generals. Fresh in the memory and the memories of 1997, when under the pressure of war, the Prime Minister Erbakan was forced to resign and his party was dissolved (in the party then consisted, and Erdogan).
Therefore, in recent years the Turkish head of state has organized and systematically kept the pressure on army leadership. Conducted purges of generals, in responsible positions were appointed loyal to Erdogan the people dissatisfied with the officers were dismissed from the service.
But in the end, despite all these efforts to strengthen loyalty in the ranks of the military, the situation exploded. In the night of Saturday, July 16, the military took to the streets of Ankara and Istanbul military equipment and even put on strategically important objects air strikes from helicopter gunships. And yet, overnight, it became clear that their coup is doomed to failure.
Yes, the army in Turkey plays a special role, which is not only national defense but also to defend the secular state. However, a military coup is a serious and extremely responsible. As they say: insurrection is never a good, successful rebellion is called differently.
Judging by the chronology of events of last night, the performance of the military was, if not spontaneous, it is extremely poorly prepared.
Firstly, the outbreak of the rebellion, the officers in fact did not create practical mechanisms to take power. Neither the President nor the Prime Minister was not detained or at least blocked. Let Erdogan could not land at the airport, but has kept in touch with his government. Prime Minister Yildirim gave a loyal security forces, spoke to the society and journalists, calling supporters to action. In fact, the military was unable to take control of any one key Agency: was struck at the television station and Parliament, which had no practical value, but only angered the people.
Soldiers raised by the rebels, poorly understood what was happening, their morale was devastated. At the first serious resistance the main forces of the rebels dropped their weapons and raised their hands.
Second, the uprising was clearly not the social base. The rebel leaders have not prepared public opinion and relied solely on strength. In the end, an armed uprising was not supported in fact no significant socio-political force even opponents of Erdogan spoke out against the violent seizure of power.
The same position was taken in the UN and the Western countries, including the United States. In defense of Erdogan reached thousands of people who stood in front of tanks and tried to disarm soldiers. Shooting on the crowd and shooting unarmed protesters is automatically given Erdogan the feeling of moral superiority.
Unlikely in these events should look for the conspiracy trail, but in the dry residue of the failed coup only play into the hands of Erdogan. Most likely, this is the case when stupidity goes hand in hand with the provocation. Rebellion will be the perfect excuse to strengthen the personal power of the President, and Foundation for the pressure on opponents and repression of not only those who raised the rebellion, but government critics that do not have a relationship.
Speaking to reporters in the night, quite frankly, Erdogan said that during the incident he should thank Allah, because now nothing will stop the government before large-scale purge of the army. The country’s leadership are already talking about changing the Constitution and the return of the death penalty. While Erdogan had an important political trump: he’s got an opportunity to strengthen personal power, but under the slogan of defense of democracy before the threat of the junta.
The events of last night can become the most important episode in the modern history of Turkey. If Erdogan showed rigidity and consistency, you will be able to neutralize the army’s role as guarantor of the Constitution, while reducing personal risks. If this happens, Turkey may well begin a process of revision of the “conquest of Istanbul”. And this is a direct way to return a religious state.
