As with the West, and in relations with Moscow, Belarusian authorities are increasingly finding themselves in a situation when their partner’s willingness to make concessions. Both sides are sure to go to Minsk any longer, and so it is possible to set more conditions than before.
In its slow drift to the West, Alexander Lukashenko was ready to go on unprecedented concessions – two months ago in the Belarusian Parliament for the first time in 12 years was held by the opposition. But the West does not hurry with the response gingerbread. At the level of rhetoric Minsk patted him on the shoulder, said, keep, problems remain, demokratisering on. The reality was more modest.
Difficulty of the West
The United States was extended for another six months, a partial freeze of sanctions against nine Belarusian companies, leaving untouched the restrictions against individual officials. A diplomat from the state Department’s Bridget brink, who brought to Minsk the news, has not confirmed the recent optimism of Alexander Lukashenko on the day of election he promised the imminent return of the ambassadors of Belarus and the United States in the capital to each other (eight years of Embassy work in reduced mode).
The EU canceled its sanctions in February, and a major new concessions has not yet been announced. There were signals from the German Bundestag and the Polish Sejm that they are ready to establish official contacts (read – accept) with the Belarusian Parliament. MEPs will decide the issue in late November.
The EU launched with Belarus trade dialogue – consultation between sectoral authorities for the removal of trade barriers and promises to begin similar negotiations in the energy and customs. It is useful, though not binding to the result, until it is only the expansion of the agenda in the talks with Minsk.
But the European Commission is not pleased with Belarusian diplomats. Recently, Federica Mogherini said that the EU is still not ready to start negotiations on the conclusion of basic agreements with Belarus. About that Minsk is asking for all platforms and a half years.
That is progress in the parliamentary elections in the EU and US have noticed but not evaluated as seriously as he treated his assignment of Minsk. In Western capitals realized that in General Lukashenko has nowhere to go. It’s from it came the impulse to a new warming of relations, he is disappointed in the economic and political reliability of Russia. So it is possible to set more conditions than before. And now increasingly there are calls to continue, and in fact – to start the reform of the electoral legislation and to introduce a moratorium on the death penalty.
This approach still works, the Belarusian authorities do not turn from the path of the new counter-gesture to the West. The brakes after two politically sensitive criminal cases – anarchist and activist Cycling Dmitry Polienko, who was tried for resisting the police, and sharply anti-Kremlin blogger Edward Palicia, who was convicted of inciting hatred and pornography. Both were found guilty, but did not give a realistic time frame.
Belarusian law enforcers are still not arrested participants of the unresolved stock – maximum delay for a few hours “for identification” and give fines.
At the end of October, the government at the direction of Lukashenka approved the national action plan for human rights. In the world of such a document have a total of 40 countries. It one hundred steps to improve the situation with human rights until 2019. The points plan is formulated very vague, giving the authorities the field for retreat, if warming with the West choke. The calculation is made on signal strength: you’ve never even asked for, but we take ourselves and ahead of homework.
Challenges from the East
Against this background, continuous negative blows with the other flank of the Belarusian foreign policy is Eurasian.
In the Kremlin, the Eurasian economic Union (EEU) perceived through the prism of geopolitics is to consolidate the spheres of influence, to create an alternative center of power on the mainland. Belarusian interest in the Union is purely pragmatic.
First, Belarus is a free access for its products to the Russian market. Secondly, and this was the key, Minsk seeks to move away from hydrocarbon coordination issues on a bilateral level. Lukashenko did not like and did not want at the end of the next contract to get new concessions from the dominant and less cooperative partner. Multilateral frame agreement was to be protected from emotions, to make a permanent rule of duty-free gas deliveries at Russian domestic prices and of oil.
Failed. Whether consciously to preserve leverage, whether of the banal indifference to the aspirations of Minsk Moscow has not supported this idea when he launched the EEU two years ago. The unification of the energy market has appointed 2025.
Since at each integration summit of the Belarusian authorities to repeat like a mantra: we are not satisfied with the availability of the exemptions for oil and gas in the EEU, you need to move faster to the common market. The same thing almost word for word, Lukashenko said, speaking to recently gathered at a meeting in Minsk Prime Ministers of the CIS and EAEC.
The most pressing reason to be on edge, Minsk became the summer and autumn, the oil and gas conflict with Moscow. Gazprom put claim to $300 million of underpayments for gas – the sides differ in the interpretation of the contract price. When the Belarusian authorities tried to argue, they have reduced the oil supply in the fourth quarter.
Lukashenko said in his style – raising the stakes. Once the EEU is not working as he wants to, Russia was pointedly said: we will withdraw the best employees of the organs of the Union, what are they in Moscow pants sit.
But this time Russia is not lost, apparently, the irritation was much stronger than usual. Some sources reported that, not least because of the increasingly obvious Western drift Lukashenko. Rosselkhoznadzor began intensively to find poor quality of Belarusian milk. As you know, they always get that way when in a relationship sparks. We don’t know about the content of closed-door talks, but in the end to settle the dispute turned more on the Russian conditions: Minsk recognizes and debt returns, the price of gas remains the same in 2017, it can reduce the supply of oil, Russia plans to resume full.
As with the West in relations with Moscow, Belarusian authorities are increasingly finding themselves in a situation when their partner’s willingness to make concessions. Can Minsk go crazy and put an edge on the question of its membership in the Eurasian economic Union? Again – nowhere to go. Though the trade dependence on Russia and decrease in absolute numbers with the fall of the two economies, but in some areas, especially industrial, alternative Russian market Belarus has not. But there is a clear understanding of what is fraught with such threats at a time when the Kremlin feels like a besieged fortress.
This oppressive hopelessness when their own capabilities are no longer allowed to from neighbors that is necessary, leads to the unusual initiatives of Minsk. In parallel with the summit of post-Soviet Prime Ministers in the Belarusian capital, when state-run media and the active support of the Ministry of foreign Affairs organised several conferences on the topic of “integration of integrations”. Belarus tries to measure their forces to put on the agenda the idea that overcoming the differences between East and West in the collaboration of the two unions-European and Eurasian.
Moscow formally, through their Eurasian officials, not against it. Vladimir Putin himself is several times mentioned “a Greater Europe from Lisbon to Vladivostok”. But it is hard to imagine such integration in terms of mutual sanctions, and Brussels is clearly not intended to start formal dialogue with Russia without serious progress in the implementation of the Minsk agreements.
The efforts of Minsk verbal promotion of the idea of integration of integrations, and they go for more than a year, of course, will be futile, as great uncle will not solve their problems themselves. But the voice of one crying in the wilderness – signal the growing fatigue of Belarus of the need to balance between disputing neighbors. Which also often cease to pay attention to clenched between them is small, but demanding country.
