Minsk less focused on recalcitrant Moscow, preferring her generous Beijing. At least, judging from official rhetoric on foreign economic relations. But in practice, China grants loans to mainly Chinese businesses. Energy and military security of Belarus remains Russia.
Bad loans
30 September ended a three-day visit of Alexander Lukashenko to China. His visit was announced by the Belarusian leadership almost from the beginning of the year and always designated as “strategic” and “fateful”.
In early 2010 China to open Belarus a credit line worth $15 billion, which helped the economy after the 2009 crisis, and also made it possible to raise salaries and pensions before the presidential election. And five years later, Chinese President XI Jinping himself visited Minsk and brought with him more credit on the $7 billion, of which $3 billion on concessional terms. At the same time was implemented a number of joint projects — from construction near Minsk a large car Assembly plant “Belgee” for the production of Chinese cars Geely in the Russian market to create the Chinese-Belarusian MLRS range “Polonaise”.
According to the results of the last meeting of Alexander Lukashenko and XI Jinping signed a new package of agreements and memoranda, which stipulate a greater volume of investments of China in the Belarusian industry.
In particular, Chinese investors will gain access to many strategic enterprises of Belarus, which are still deliberately not privatized.
“In the joint Declaration signed by Alexander Lukashenko and XI Jinping, declared the readiness to develop cooperation in the sphere of production potential, which will attract large Chinese companies in projects to enter the share capital of Belarusian companies”, — quotes the information Agency “BelTA” head of the Department of international relations of the Academy of management under the President of Belarus Sergey Kizima. — A very important agreement with the Export-import Bank of China, which will contribute to attracting to Belarus direct investment of Chinese companies”.
It turns out that Belarusian-Chinese cooperation will be largely reduced to the fact that China will lend the private companies working on the Belarusian market.
Now Belarus buys much more from China than it sells him. By the end of 2015 China entered the top three trade partners of Belarus, the bilateral trade totaled $3.3 billion That only the Belarusian exports to China amounted to about $800 million, while imports from China to Belarus — $2.4 billion this year, Belarusian exports to China are simply falling apart. In the first seven months of this year, Belarusians sold to China goods for $107 million — almost five times less than in the same period of 2015.
Continued buying by the Chinese Belarusian industrial assets. 9 September the Ministry of economy of Belarus invited the Chinese to buy stock in 25 companies. As told journalists the Deputy Minister of economy Alexander Yaroshenko, filed by the Belarusian side was listed as a top enterprise and smaller companies. “It is necessary for our companies to new markets, technology, production, — said Yaroshenko. Are companies from different industries, but primarily we are talking about the industrial sector, energy, construction industry. The observed enterprises of the cement industry, for the production of metal”.
“From leaving Lukashenko more noise than result.
How many heard loud statements about the immense financial resources that will come from China.
As a result, we from China have only tied loans, often unprofitable projects, such as cement factories, or the localization is not the most advanced production processes with an eye not on the West and the Eurasian economic Union, — said Victor, Evmenenko, expert analytical resource Belarus Security Blog. — Therefore, no direct investment from China, and I think we will not see. And will continue prior practice of our relationship, when the Belarusian side will be forced to take is not that attractive offers from China.”
Beijing will not replace Moscow
“It is no coincidence that almost at the same time was an initiative of “integration of integration” proposed by Alexander Lukashenko, and the concept of creation of the economic belt of the silk road XI Jinping. Belarus is a logistical crossroads. We are located on key transport routes linking Western Europe with the East, the black sea regions with the countries of the Baltic sea, — said the Deputy head of the presidential administration of Belarus for economy Nikolai Snopkov. — Today in the Chinese-Belarusian industrial Park “Great stone” is the active creation of an inland port and integrated logistics center. Two obvious nodal sites economic zone of the silk road: urban district of Urumqi in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region of China and Belarus”.
Indeed, now under construction near Minsk a huge (80 square km) of the Belarusian-Chinese industrial Park “Great stone” had already become the largest Chinese project in Belarus. In this Chinese investors are attracted by the opportunity to build their Assembly plant right next door to the European Union — the second largest after the U.S. market to Chinese goods.
But the main idea of the Belarusian leadership here — to fit in the Chinese concept of the “New silk road” — the Eurasian transport corridor, integrated transport networks from the Pacific ocean to the Baltic sea, designed to provide quick and hassle-free supply of Chinese goods to the West.
“Official Minsk is well aware that on the route “the New silk road” Belarus was in the role of a bottleneck, the bottleneck that connects the Eurasian Union with the European Union. Ukraine China as a transit country is not seriously considering because of the ongoing war, “said ” Газете.Ru” Belarusian economist, expert of the civil campaign “Our House” Andrey Aksenov.
— By the Belarusians to sell in Europe much in contrast to the Chinese.”
“China is the second most important geopolitical partner of Belarus, — said “Газете.Ru” Dmitry Bolkunets, expert Higher school of Economics. But unlike Moscow, Beijing gives the related loans, on which it is possible to buy only Chinese goods and equipment. China is interested in Belarusian potash fertilizers, and is actively interested in weapons. However, China will provide Belarus with energy resources, will not replace the Russian market will not provide military security.
