Libya is considered a “reserve base” to the terrorist “Islamic state” in the event of a loss in Syria. To Russia in this connection the question arises: is it worthwhile to develop the Syrian success of another country in the Arab East? What forces can support Moscow and whether it is correlated with its foreign policy interests.
After the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, Libya was plunged into anarchy and chaos. A rigid vertical of power, which is built of Gaddafi, to subdue the warring clans and tribal groupings were destroyed, but in place of it never came. Attempt to build institutions on the basis of party representation has not brought the results expected in the West. The disunited opposition and Islamist groups that entered the new Parliament showed its inability to restore the Libyan state.
All this creates perfect conditions for the intrusion here of an operational base of the terrorist “Islamic state”. For the last two months in Syria destroyed two Central figures of the organization Omar al-Shishani al-Adnani. With APR in social networks associated with the radical Islamist underground, began to appear in which the user of the IG for the first time began to recognize the possibility of defeat their terrorist “Caliphate”, said Evgenia Gvozdeva, Director of the European center for strategic studies and security (ESISC). Earlier in 2016, was recorded a significant outflow of militants from Syria to Libya, which was not bombed, neither Russia nor the Western allies.
In 2015, ISIS managed to capture several major Libyan cities, including Sirte — the birthplace of the late dictator Muammar Gaddafi.
For Moscow, this situation begs the question: does it make sense to expand its anti-terrorist operation in Libya? In the end, the actions of domestic armed forces on Syrian territory led to the weakening of ISIS, and now the state of Syria threatens in the first place, not terrorism, and the clash of interests of different clans and political groups.
Rumors that Libya could be the next country, where will unfold the Russian “military adventure”, intensified in August when news of the visit of the Libyan General Khalifa the Haftarot in Moscow.
As suggested in a research note Yury Barmin, an expert of the Russian Council on international Affairs, the invitation to visit Moscow came personally from Vladimir Putin. He argued that Russian interests in Libya are dictated by not so much economic benefits as a desire to become one of the most active players in the restoration of the political system. Thus, as noted by Barmin, Russia can obtain additional leverage on the situation in the middle East.
A similar view was expressed by a number of prominent English-language publishers and the Arab news Agency Al Arabiya and Al Jazeera. As Russia has already helped the government in Cabruca to print 4 billion dinars to strengthen the Central Bank as opposed to the current in Tripoli,” the potential supply of Russian weapons Haftarot journalists regarded as a logical continuation of the Kremlin’s policy, especially given the “impotence” of Western countries to influence the situation.
Country for two
At the moment the country has two governments and two parliaments. The first power center is a national unity Government and the Presidential Council of Libya, based in Tripoli. These authorities were originally created in Tunisia last December on the basis of Shirinskogo agreement brokered by the UN security Council. The head of government became Faiz Sarraj, which Western countries see as the only hope for the political unification of Libya.
Another center of power was the house of representatives (PP) of Libya, elected in 2014, and has received international recognition by a number of States and the UN. PP is based in Tobruk.
The Libyan army led by Khalifa the Haftarot loyal to the government in Tobruk, which is supported by Egypt and UAE. Tripoli, in turn, protects the military coalition “Dawn of Libya”, formed from the former jihadists of al-Qaeda, the Berber militias, the Libyan branch of the Muslim brotherhood and the militias of Misrata. The government Saraga ready to compromise with the Islamists. Haftar and PP are set up unconditionally hostile.
The country is in a deadlock. Experts say that in the absence of constructive practical efforts on the part of external players in the coming years, Libya can expect three scenarios, each of which is disappointing. The first and most realistic is a further fragmentation of society and decentralization of power, which put into question the existence of Libya as a state and is fertile ground for the expansion of terrorist organizations.
Some fear or expect that in the near future the situation will be able to reverse the upward leader army chief Khalifa Haftar.
The figure of the Haftarot has captured the attention of international media and analysts, when he launched “operation Dignity” to oust Islamist groups from Benghazi and the Eastern regions of the country. Journalists began drawing Parallels with the Egyptian General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, shortly before he will take a military coup and began the persecution of the Islamist movement “Muslim brotherhood”. Haftar also does not hide his political ambitions, believing that, after receiving military-technical assistance “superpowers”, he will be able to establish peace throughout Libya.
The General comes
In his youth Haftar was one of close to Gaddafi officers who participated in the military coup of 1969 that brought to power the dictator known. Some authors claim that Haftar was in the Soviet Union, however, most likely, we are talking about instructing Soviet officers who were sent to Libya in 1970-1980-ies in the framework of a broader military cooperation.
At the end of 1980-ies of the Haftarot, was one of the commanders of Libyan troops in the border war with Chad, but was defeated and captured. As a result, Gaddafi has put forward to address the Haftarot accusations of betrayal. With time spent in prison starts opposition the General.
While in custody, the Haftarot and a group of his closest officers have established contacts with the based in Chad, “National salvation front of Libya,” supported by the CIA. After the military coup in n’djamena, the General and his supporters were evacuated by American intelligence agencies in the United States.
In America, the Haftarot became a citizen and continued to cooperate with the CIA in developing the plan to overthrow Gaddafi. Haftar lived in the United States, in Virginia, until 2011. After he returned to Libya to take part in the civil war, which ended with the fall of the Jamahiriya and the murder of Gaddafi. However, the Haftarot were not accepted at home. He was accused of collaboration with the CIA, treason, intent to become a “new Gaddafi”. He failed to acquire a decent position in the transitional government of the Libyan Republic, and he returned to the United States to spend time with his grandchildren.
In 2013, the General returned to Libya and began to gather his supporters, the old comrades in the struggle against Gaddafi. In may 2014, he launched “operation Dignity” to oust Islamist militants that began in Benghazi, has been expanded to a number of the Eastern territories and has reached Tripoli. Haftar launched the assault on the former capital, but was eventually driven out of the city by the forces “Dawn Libya”, which until now consider it their primary goal. From these events began a new round of the Libyan civil war.
Was there ally?
Correspondents of Western media in Libya argue that the Haftarot many supporters. His uncompromising attitude towards the Islamists, he creates the image of “Libyan al-Sisi”, which gives hope to ordinary Libyans, tired of the constant armed clashes and war of all against all”.
However, despite some hype around his persona in the media, objectively the resources and influence of the Haftarot limited. In order to continue the attack on the positions of his opponents, it is necessary to achieve the lifting of the embargo on the sale of arms and to enlist international support.
America, once interested in cooperation with the Haftarot as an experienced military commander, is now set not so favorably. In Washington, his actions called the “arbitrariness” and I think the main obstacle to the unification of Libya — because of his categorical refusal to engage in dialogue with the authorities in Tripoli, while Tripoli is not clean from the terrorists.
“Haftar threatens major initiatives, supported by the West, and the establishment of an internationally recognized political power,” reads one study of the Washington analytical center New America.
The experts of RIAC Grigory Lukyanov and Ruslan Mamedov believe that to talk seriously about the interests of Moscow in Libya is not yet possible.
“Russia today is not the interests and challenges in Libya, what have and what we have to deal in this country, European and Arab Mediterranean countries, says Lukyanov. In Libya there is not a healthy political forces with whom Russia could do business with confidence and trust.”
Ruslan Mamedov added that, despite the support of the Haftarot from the main Russian partner in the region — Egypt, the General has enough forces and authority to unite the country.
“Now eyes are turned to the government of national unity Saraga, which was recently recognized by the government in Tripoli,” — said the expert.
It is unclear how credible information about the visit of the Haftarot in Moscow. The Russian media reported only the Sputnik Agency and the newspaper “Izvestia”, citing its sources. Later, the correspondent of “Izvestia”, RIA “Novosti” interviewed the Russian Ambassador in Tripoli Ivan Molotkov, which confirmed the presence of the General in Moscow, but did not say that he was personally at the meetings with representatives of the Russian Ministry of foreign Affairs and the Ministry of defence.
Grigory Lukyanov, however, claims that Haftar has not arrived. According to him, the negotiations on his behalf in Moscow were only the representatives of the General.
“The Russian side was Deputy Minister of foreign Affairs, responsible for middle East area. In many ways it was a sign of respect from the Russian foreign Ministry to the Egyptian patrons of the Haftarot,” he added. News agencies Interfax and TASS not reported on the visit.
Regardless of the details and format of this visit, the experts emphasize that the Haftarah is not a person representing Libya as a state. Therefore, meaningful dialogue will be possible only when the country will have a legitimate government.
