The statements of the Russian politicians, officials and other influential persons often remind prvoaprilska joke, whatever time of year neither of them spoke. Expert NDNews Sergei Yasinsky explains what is behind the distortion of words and whether on this occasion to have fun.
The Russian Federation is almost fully integrated into the global economic system. But as an independent economy, it build failed, the Russian economy is dependent. In fact, it is a raw materials appendage, which is trying to call “an energy superpower”. While much of the necessary for life is purchased abroad. So to speak, of the oil-for-food. Policy production and sale of raw materials, mineral resources instead of the development of the processing sector, has led to significant dependence on imported goods and products. Try “import substitution” was conducted out of nowhere, without any preparation, without studying the situation, without calculation, without planning, without reservation and allocation of money on this job and so on. Apparently, this idea was not intended to implement, and needed only to create the illusion of solving the problem (to demonstrate to society that there is a solution, he found, a decision is made, implemented, etc.). In fact, the replacement of foreign products to its domestic, failed. And could not succeed, so how does this idea fundamentally cannot be a separate economic issue – it is solved in the framework of the development of the economy as a natural consequence of this development.
Without a strong economy may not be strong in politics because politics is the continuation of the economy. The Russian economy is weak, so policy is too weak – idle chatter, attempting to deceive yourself and others, to make a good impression and so on in the same spirit. But juggling words will not help improve the economy. Words can mask the fact-bad management of the economy, the poor state of the economy and the like, but to solve problems they can’t. The desired actions.
What are the actions of the leadership of the country? Well, how about it? What information is known? In theory, this should be on everyone’s lips. Because it makes no sense to pursue serious economic reforms in secret. If management wants to build a strong independent country, has the intellectual and other resources and acts in this direction, it will necessarily inform the society.
What you hear can be classified is that of preparatory actions – and to their very beginning. It’s just a statement of intentions at the level of: “we’re going to do something”, without details, without elaboration, as only the most General idea. In this category there are such plans, such as, import substitution, or, say, building a base on the moon.
Other published information is that they are already doing or going to do seriously in the near future. Here we see various measures to reduce budget expenditures on social sphere and increase revenues. This may mean that the state accumulates funds in the budget. But for what? For the construction of a base on the moon? No, of course. No moon, no Mars to learn it will not. Then, what the real problem it intends to solve with these tools?
We see no major economic activity of the state aimed at the development of our country. And from what is known, we can derive the assumption that money spent on meeting current expenses – what you already have. Also from the fact undertaken measures to increase the revenues to the budget, it can be concluded that money is not enough. But then how do you explain the fact that the government spends money to purchase us government bonds? According to information “Russian newspaper” (the publication of the government of the Russian Federation), Russian Federation increases the volume of investments in U.S. government bonds. In 2015 the Russian Federation “increased the volume of investments in securities of the U.S. government 14.7 billion from $ 82.2 billion to 96,9 billion dollars.” This information the latest is 16 March 2016.
Us bonds sold for dollars. Dollars the state receives from the sale of Russian products abroad. The state, as it States, needs money primarily in dollars, but in reality on the funds it buys securities. But this also means that he doesn’t need money? Another proof that the words mean nothing – actions mean (“For you shall know them”). That is, no state challenges the ruling elite puts in front of him, and no problem is going to solve it. Looking at the Russian economy – and, more broadly, on the state of the country, we can confidently say that Russian money is definitely necessary. It is impossible to say that all problems are solved, and so much money that it is nowhere to go.
If the current leadership were engaged in the country with a view to its welfare, it would buy the bonds. Because securities are bought, when the money is extra. This is how to put in the Bank. The excess of money wise to reserve, especially if at interest. But when there is not enough money, to buy securities no. Because money is needed now, not later. It follows from this that the upper classes do not solve our problems, the problems of Russia. They are separate and we are separate. Our problem is not their problem, and Vice versa. And they exclusively resolve their problems. Our problems remain unresolved.
So, what happens? Top converting dollars into securities, stores them in the USA. Travel business limit is as explained by one member – so that tourists do not spend currency abroad (as if it’s not their own money, and the state). Then the state makes it difficult for citizens to exchange rubles for foreign currency. Finally, in February 2016, the President of the Bank of Russia Nabiullina gives an interview to the Agency “Reuters”. In it she says that the banks currency creates problems and we have to solve these problems. Wants to help. There is almost like a joke:
– What has helped?
-No, already wanted.
According to her, the currency forms the banks risks, and these “risks should be reduced”. The amount of currency the Bank should approximately match foreign currency liabilities of the Bank. That is, the Bank must have as much currency as needed to pay his monetary debts. Reasonable? But the fact is that the bankers and without Nabiullina know it. And everything you need already done. And currency (dollars) in current situation no risks does not form. On the contrary, with the currency now protects the Bank from inflation – because the ruble creates risks (not the dollar). The bankers, without any Nabiullina (like any reasonable person), know what to do when the ruble is falling and the dollar rising. They buy dollars. They keep their value in currency.
And Nabiullina says: “But our policy is to reduce valorisatio banks ‘balance sheets”. That is, she wants the banks dollars became less and RUB more. Therefore, in order dollars went to the state, and the RUB – banks. Together with inflation. So she wants to help.
The situation looks as if the state (or rather if, the ruling class) wants to take the country has a high currency, leaving her with the depreciating ruble – this operation is clearly not strengthened, probably, will collapse completely. And what’s next? Russia will be bankrupt – and they?
Earlier question: how will they get out – for me meant, how they would solve the problem that created the country. Now the question is, how will they solve exactly your problem. The classic option is to escape to the West. But the Russian upper classes to consistently and steadily worsen relations with Western countries. There soon criminal cases will go. So, the West cannot. Well, where then? Where to go, it’s not in North Korea, on a dry ration (and would not like in a concentration camp)? And not in China – because the Chinese government almost formally expressed its negative attitude to the leadership of the Russian Federation (in traditional Chinese style: polite but ambiguous). Cuba establishes the relationship with the US, where they can not wait. And in any country going to get them – not their own, strangers. They have nowhere to escape. Only in Russia they have a chance. While maintaining power.
So, at least for their own sake they will need to change the current socio-political regime. Now they can still solve the question of how they continue to live long and tasteful. If the time is missed, they will think only about how to survive. And since they are in Russia, then they have every chance to reach to this stage.
