Iran is a key element of the Chinese “silk road” in the European Union. This is evidenced by not only the leadership of the PRC in the procurement of oil from the Islamic Republic, but also of interest to Tehran from Seoul, which along with Beijing and Tokyo is concentrating in their hands the finances of East Asia. The Minister of Finance of the Republic of Korea Yu Il Ho is going to break, announcing the impending launch of the trading system between Seoul and Tehran, based on the Euro.
“29 Aug (C. G. — S. C.) between South Korea and Iran will earn new rules on bilateral trade, which will be carried out in euros”, — quotes the Minister the Iranian Tasnim News Agency. According to officials, the transition to the single European currency will help to develop the trade and increase investments between the two countries, which are estimated to total $45.6 billion
Implementation of the initiatives assigned to such commercial institutions as the KEB Hana Bank, Shinhan Bank and Woori Bank. The Americans have something to lose. After the failure of Seoul from dollar settlement with Tehran — the attack on the currency hegemony of the US.
And here’s why:
1. South Korea and Iran sets a dangerous political precedent that is similar in scope with the decision of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein (November 2000) on the transfer of the oil trade of Baghdad for eurocurrency. The fate of Iraq is well known.
2. The transition of Seoul at Euro signal to the international investors, because we are talking about the third largest importer of Iranian oil after Beijing and new Delhi. According to the Ministry of trade, industry and energy of South Korea, from April to June 2016 the Republic imported 25,35 million barrels of crude oil from Iran, which exceeds last year’s figure 123.3% (11,35 million barrels).
3. Iranian-Korean trade in the Euro exchange rate will automatically reduce costs for subsequent resale of goods in the territory of the European Union. Thus extending the zone of the predominance of the Euro, the Koreans and the Iranians get an additional trump card in political negotiations with the Americans, indicating their determination to participate in the “Silk road”.
4. The Korean side acts in accordance with the wishes of China, suggests that the English-language Japan News, citing the following arguments: “Economic South Korea’s dependence on China increases. By the end of 2015, the Koreans imported Chinese goods and services at $90.2 billion, occupying in this respect a leadership position. Japan with its $45.9 billion was far behind.”
5. The initiative of Seoul and Tehran (not accidentally) coincided with the negotiations of Japan and South Korea to create a single free trade area with China. Moreover, 28 Aug Yu-Il Ho and the Japanese Finance Minister Taro ASO agreed to resume currency swaps between countries, which also strikes at the positions of the dollar in East Asia. (For comparison: the United States and South Korea signed a free trade agreement on June 30, 2007. Finally the document entered into force 15 March 2012).
Washington is trying to “drive a wedge” between Seoul and Beijing.
So in early July, the Pentagon announces (with the consent of South Korea) of plans to deploy in 2017 on the Peninsula missile complex rolling land-based (THAAD — Terminal High Altitude Area Defense), motivated the alleged missile program of the DPRK. As expected, China reacted with restraint. Although in 2010, Beijing has strongly restricted the supply of materials to Japan because of the aggravation of the territorial dispute between the two countries. The logic is clear — at stake are the interests of the “silk road”, and here Korea could play in the favor of China.
Let us return to Iran, for which the rejection of the dollar — not the sensation. The fact is that with the introduction in 2012 of economic sanctions, the US and the EU against Iran’s monetary authorities are forced to look for an alternative to the dollar and the Euro. Now the wheel spun in the opposite direction.
Political conditions favoring China. Because Washington and Brussels have not created a Transatlantic free trade zone (Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, TTIP). “Negotiations between the U.S. and the EU on TTIP failed, although one is not recognized,” said Vice-Chancellor of Germany Sigmar Gabriel, quoted by Tasnim News. According to him, after 14 rounds of negotiations the parties were unable to agree on the clauses of the agreement, and free trade between the EU and Canada Gabriel does and puts the example of the Americans, stating that the document meets the interests of the participating countries.
In this situation, Tehran is rapidly looks around, calling on Islamabad to speed up economic cooperation. This is the message to the new Ambassador of Pakistan in Iran, Asif Ali Khan Durrani approached President Hassan Rouhani, hinting at the necessity of the launch of the gas pipeline Iran-Pakistan, the construction of which (on Pakistani soil) for several years slowed down under pressure from the US and India.
At stake and container trade along the China-Pakistan-Iran-Turkey, focal point of which is the port of Bandar Abbas in the Iranian Balochistan.
This topic was discussed in a separate meeting between Secretary of the Supreme national security Council (SNSC) of Iran Ali Shamkhani with the Prime Minister of India Narendra modi, which took place on 26 August. “Constructive approaches and independent approach of Iran and India, the two regional powers, has prepared a sufficient basis for cooperation to end the regional conflicts, crises, and combating terrorism and religious extremism,” — said the Iranian politician. But how far are willing to go the Indians? It is difficult to say.
But his contribution to the development of the “silk road” with China is willing to make Israel, which from may 2013 talks on the establishment of China free trade area.
“I was glad to hear from Vice Premier Liu [Yandong], China is ready to start negotiations with Israel on creation of a free trade zone. We are talking about a historical event, and we are ready to do it right now. In every aspect of cooperation relations between the two countries can bring huge results. And we believe that Israel can be the perfect partner,” said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with Chinese officials, which took place on 29 March 2016, reports the Jerusalem Post.
Paradoxes are not. The statement of Netanyahu reveals the nuances of Israeli policy towards the conductors of the southern corridor “silk road” of Iran and Turkey, which involves establishing formal and informal contacts with Tehran and Ankara. Moreover, Turkey and Iran (potential) of the land transport corridor from tel Aviv to China, the trade balance which in 2015 reached $11 billion (10% of total trade balance of Israel).
Surprisingly only that in their actions, China is following in the footsteps of U.S. President William Clinton, who, according to the Chicago Tribune columnist Steve Chapman in the 1990-ies approved an agreement on North American free trade area (NAFTA), agreed to abolish duties in relations with Israel and Jordan, and also lobbied for the accession of China to the world trade organization.
With the Turks, the Israelis, things are easier than with Iran: after approval (20 August) by the Turkish Parliament of the act on the normalization of relations with Israel, foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu promised to soon decide on the appointment of ambassadors. Although it was not without rhetoric. “The normalization of relations with Turkey does not mean that we remain silent in the face of unjustified convictions.
Israel will continue to defend its citizens from rocket attacks in accordance with international law and our conscience. Turkey should think twice before criticizing the military activity of other countries,” — said in the diplomatic service of the Jewish state was responsible for the attacks of Ankara, addressed to the Palestinian issue.
That is, tel Aviv differentiates the Arab-Israeli conflict Israeli-Turkish Affairs, preserving, thus, a free hand in planning the supply of Ankara natural gas (in the port of Mersin with the offshore field “Leviathan) and military equipment (drones and means of radio electronic fight).
As for a possible dialogue with Iran, while the ruling elite of Israel have not yet reached consensus on this issue. Suffice it to recall an interview with the former head of the foreign intelligence “Mossad” (2002 — 2011) Meir Dagan’s television Channel 2, in which it accused Netanyahu in lobbying for the “nuclear deal” with Tehran. “Netanyahu’s at a certain point, screaming about what is going to attack Iran.
He and then defense Minister [Ehud Barak] said that the only way to prevent Iran to get the bomb — to attack, and they talked about the ability and willingness of the IDF to attack, sending a signal to the world… as a result the Americans began to assess the risks. And their conclusion was that war has a negative impact on the interests of the United States. That is why they have to seek an alternative, which was based on the formula: “the Great war we prefer a bad deal”. Now, the person who helped to expedite the signing of the nuclear deal — with all its shouting and sham opposition is the Prime Minister of Israel”, — summed up the General Dagan.
However, his predecessor as Director of the “Mossad” (1998 — 2002) Efraim Halevy holds the opposite view, stating in the air of Qatar TV channel Al Jazeera that “Iran is not a threat to Israel.”
In early August, the Israeli defense Ministry and the General staff has put an end to the debate by comparing the “nuclear deal” with the Munich agreement of 1938, and President Barack Obama on the hapless British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain. “The Munich agreement did not prevent the to prevent the Second world war and the Holocaust, precisely because the assumption about the partnership with Nazi Germany was wrong, and world leaders deliberately ignored the statements of Hitler and other Nazi party members.
That’s why the agreement with Iran does not help, but harm the uncompromising struggle which must be waged against the Iranian state terror”, — quotes the official statement of the Ministry of defense of Israel, Defense News portal.
The new head “Mossad” Yossi Cohen took a compromise position between the military and the government, noting that the key task of intelligence remains an “Iranian threat”, which promises to give “an adequate response”. “Despite the nuclear deal, I think that currently, the Iranian threat has increased significantly”, — quotes the words of Cohen, the newspaper Times of Israel.
Is there a possibility for dialogue between tel Aviv and Tehran?
The Swiss Federal Supreme court optimistic. June 27, the judicial authority of the Confederation ordered Israel to pay Iran $1.1 billion in reimbursement damages for oil contracts concluded before the Islamic revolution of 1979.
We are talking about that part of the European elite, is configured for dialogue with Tehran and Beijing seek “to rewind the tape back”, when after the Arab-Israeli war in 1967, Shah Pahlavi supplying oil to the Jewish state in the hope to balance the Sunni Gulf monarchies, which have been traditionally hostile to Tehran.
“When Egypt blocked the Suez canal, making it impossible for the transit of Iranian oil to Europe using tankers, Israel has given Iran pipeline Eilat-Ashkelon, allowing to bring raw materials to ports on the red sea, where she arrived on European markets”, — says columnist for Forbes magazine Tim Daiss, reminding that the Iranian-Israeli company Eilat-Ashkelon Pipeline Company (EAPC), established in 1968, functioned over the next ten years, although she never reached the maximum capacity of processing 60 million tons of oil per year.
It is possible that the history of Iranian-Israeli relations can be repeated. Indeed, in mid-August, Iran’s tankers had to go around Africa to the South, to deliver a consignment of oil to Poland — Egypt again refused to Iran in transit through the Suez canal.
But now the game has entered China: President XI Jinping invited the President of Egypt Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi to visit (as a guest of honor), the summit of “Big twenty”, which will meet on 4 September in Chinese Hangzhou. There will be preliminary results of the main project of the century — the “silk road”.
