Valery Solovey that may become an alternative to twenty years of stagnation
Valery Solovei, a political scientist, Professor, MGIMO, one of the most accurate predictors of shifts in the government, releases new book, “Революtion! The foundations of the revolutionary struggle in the modern era.” And predicts dramatic changes in Russia over the next two years. Based on his assumptions as to why law enforcers and officials do not support the regime and what can be the alternative to the new Russian revolution — he told in interview “Газете.Ru”.
In his book, which will be released in November, you write that no revolution was not predicted. And nevertheless find common features in many so-called color revolutions of recent times, including in the CIS countries. However, this is not the notorious “hand of the state Department”, teaches us that great TV and what seem to genuinely believe even some of the leaders of the country. Then what are these common features?
— Yes, many believe in the “arm of the state Department,” and although this belief has some grounds, the influence of the West is first and foremost the influence of lifestyle and culture. Labor migration from the CIS countries — especially those that are geographically between Russia and Europe, is directed to both sides: to the East, and West. People can watch and compare which is better.
Even the Belarusian youth today is much more oriented to the West, and in this sense, the future of Belarus is a foregone conclusion.
That’s how the Ukrainians went up and down, watched, I learned. Take such a fact. Ukrainian can come to study in Russian universities on a paid basis only, whereas in Poland and in many other countries of the EU, he can get a scholarship. If we talked so much that Ukrainians — brotherly nation, why this brotherhood was limited only to how to split the money for gas transit.
— But in the end I had instead of “soft power” to act rude.
— With no serious reason. In 2013, when it was a question whether the sign Ukraine Association with the European Union, Europe from the Ukraine has actually refused. The EU has had so many problems with Greece and other “violators” of fiscal discipline. There was a tacit division of spheres of influence. Not that openly, but it was considered a foregone conclusion that Ukraine is in Russia’s sphere of influence. The Ukrainian revolution was for European leaders the same unpleasant surprise for the Kremlin leadership. Especially when there is spilled blood and had to intervene. That Western politicians were afraid of fire. So popular in some circles, the idea of “subversive” Western influence have very little to do with reality.
“The authorities were lucky with the opposition”
— The unrest of 2011-2012 in Russia — all these rallies against “fraudulent elections,” occupy-Abai, walks on the boulevards, and so on — is not the state Department was organized?
— It was a moral protest in its pure, unalloyed form. Socioeconomic root causes for protest in Russia did not exist. The country was in an uptrend after the crisis of 2008-2009. Income and standard of living grew. I in his book, writing that – those who came to the first meeting on 5 December, immediately after the elections to the state Duma, is made up of observers, who have insulted, as a demonstrative power spit on their efforts to hold fair elections.
Society literally spat in the face. What is surprising is that it has risen? It was a moral protest, which could escalate into a full-fledged political revolution.
— Why he didn’t.
In this case, the main role was played by the weakness of the opposition itself. The opposition to this mass upsurge was not ready in the same way as power.
— And what was supposed to be training the opposition?
— It is necessary to think in advance about what you would do if people suddenly come to the area.
— But the idea was to cancel the parliamentary elections, recognize them invalid, to organize new.
— Yes, but not followed by any deliberate and sustained action to implement this idea, although the authorities were willing to go for re-elections of the Parliament after the presidential election.
— You know or suspect?
— It was discussed. I write in the book that before 10 December 2011, the government was seriously scared of the opposition rise and did not exclude even the storming of the Kremlin. However, the behavior of the leaders of the opposition showed that they are afraid of uncontrolled public outrage as much as the Kremlin itself.
When the authorities saw that on New year all the leaders of the opposition went abroad, we realized that to seriously fight these people are not ready.
It was necessary to achieve certain legislative decisions, the public promises of the President, and not just recite: “We are here, we will come again”. I love the phrase of Mao Zedong: “the Table will not move until it is moved”. No regime in the world has not yet collapsed under the weight of its own mistakes and crimes. The power changes, makes concessions only as a result of pressure.
— That is, Russian authorities could say I was lucky with the opposition?
— The government was lucky with the opposition, and with myself. She quickly made operatives, came up and began gradually to tighten the screws, acting pretty high-tech.
— Nuts began to tighten in may, six months later.
— That’s right, they had six months to assess the situation, see what the dynamics of protest began to decline. If you are tightening the screws, suddenly, sharply, there is a risk that this could cause increased dynamics of the protest — as it happened in Ukraine in the 14th year after attempts to clear the Maidan. In Russia everything was done correctly.
“In a crisis situation is particularly acute desire for justice”
Five years ago in the square came the middle class. Out, as you say, from a moral, not an economic protest. Since that time, the economic situation dramatically changed. Isn’t there a danger that tomorrow the square will be completely different people?
In the capitals in any case, the core of the protest will be that very middle class. Because he and the civil and political sense the most active. And now much angrier than they were five years ago.
Because poorer?
— Not the only reason. People are very much annoying political and cultural pressures, all these endless restrictions and harassment — even in respect of you personally, but your friends and acquaintances. Falling incomes is also very important. In a crisis situation is particularly acute desire for justice. People see that they are already struggling to give credits for iPhones or cars, but someone close did not change the way of life: still buys a yacht and enjoy annoying, heady luxury.
What was acceptable in a situation of economic recovery, it becomes totally unacceptable in a severe crisis.
The injustice begins to annoy people is much stronger than before, in the fat years.
— Is the desire for justice only escalates in the middle class?
— It escalates at all. The question is, who and how implements it. The “lower” layers unable to find a solution in deviant behavior — alcoholism, disorderly conduct. The middle class thinks in other categories — more politicized and more civil. And the middle class in Russia is quite enough to become a breeding ground of change. All modern scholars of revolution have noted that they usually occur where there is a developed middle class and where the economic development level is not too low. That is in Somalia or Ethiopia have little chance for a revolution, there are prevalent other forms of protest.
“I do not believe that Russia would be a bloody revolution”
— In Russia the word “revolution” is associated with something terrible and bloody historical experience we have such. So even the term scares many people.
Five years ago Russia was close to the so-called velvet revolution in which the government likely would retain some of their positions. She did not have to allow new elections, which the opposition, frankly, had no chance to win. She would get faction in Parliament, but it certainly would not have received a majority. But the government then did not go, because we have it avoids compromise. And therefore, she called the situation “edge against edge”. So now developments in the case of the revolution will take on a more hard scenario.
You mean bloody?
Based on international experience, the hard scenario is not necessarily bloody. And not just in Russia, he bloody won’t.
In Russia there are forces interested in the protection of the authorities. It sounds paradoxical, but it is.
Our government looks like a granite rock, she tries to intimidate his deliberate brutality. But actually this is not rock and limestone full of holes and ruts, which is very easy to collapse in case of pressure.
— I don’t know… In the country such a huge number of security forces and officials.
That means nothing. It is important not the number, but the motivation, goals, meanings. For that they will fight the notorious security forces? The power of a narrow circle, their yachts, palaces, planes?
— To stay in his manger.
— Officials — at least the middle layer — understand that they as technocrats will be in demand at any power. They especially were not in danger. Moreover, many of them in relation to the current government negatively, since, from their point of view, it is not the development of the country, and something else: predominantly war, “sawing” of resources, some strange PR projects, etc.
As for the security forces, then when people face the choice to die for the boss, or save his own life, in the absence of strong ideological motivation they prefer to save ourselves.
Especially now that we live in a world where everything is visible, that is, the whole world will be watching the events live as it was in Kiev. And any other General received the order on the harsh suppression of the rebels, will require from the authorities a written order. His superiors never will. And what do the General case implementation of the order?
From Kiev it was still possible to flee to Rostov, at Moscow, at Voronezh. And from Moscow to where? In Pyongyang?
Therefore, the risks for the security forces is extremely high. And all for what? The Soviet Union was much more powerful apparatus of violence. The Communist party was a no, but still welded United by ideological ties, a common motivation. And where it was in August of ‘ 91? We all watched it. Here’s how Rozanov said about tsarist Russia, that it is three day faded, in the same three day faded and the Soviet government.
— But why then endlessly step on a rake, bringing the situation, as you say, “edge on edge”? Well, let there be the same opposition today in the Parliament — though slightly eased the situation.
— First, think later. Second, infantile, visible, true teenage desire to avoid compromises as compromises, from the point of view of those people who make the decisions is a weakness. This question already to the psychological profile of people in power. Perhaps it was this key paragraph for understanding the dynamics of the situation. In most cases, leads to revolution, not the opposition, not by external forces, and the government itself, which is not ready to meet the public, timely resolve contradictions.
Contemporaries said about the reforms of Nicholas II — “too little too late”. It is an eternal trouble of the Russian.
But I repeat: I do not believe that Russia would be a bloody revolution, especially with large-scale apocalyptic consequences, like the collapse of the country. Nothing like that will happen.
In strategic terms, the government loses today. Its main strategy is time all our opponents are weak, we will continue to push and to wait until the problems resolve themselves. Lacking in power. today, theorists who are convinced that they will be able to hold up to 2030-2035 years.
— You think this strategy is incorrect?
— I am inclined to believe that the political situation in Russia will change dramatically over the next two years. And, it seems, the changes will begin in 17-m to year. The point here is not about magic numbers, not that this centenary is just a coincidence. For this forecast there is some reason.
“It is the radical reversal of the mass consciousness”
— What? If the opposition is weak and new faces and new ideas, as shown by the last election, don’t see why something has to change in the 17th and 18th years? On the contrary, judging by recent forecasts of the Ministry, which promises us 20 years of stagnation, the government expects to last until at least 2035.
— If we say that everything is now in the hands of the authorities, we must not forget that the government, which has no competitors, be sure begins to make mistake after mistake. Plus, the overall situation is running out: the resources of the country over growing unrest. It’s one thing when you suffer a year or two. And when you make it clear you’re “gut” feeling that you have to endure a lifetime (20 years stagnation, then what?), your attitude begins to change.
And you suddenly realize that to lose you have nothing. You already, it turns out, all is lost. So you never know — maybe change?
Sociologists who do qualitative research, they say that we are on the eve of a radical reversal of the mass consciousness, which will be very extensive and profound. And this is a reversal in the direction of loyalty to the authorities. A similar situation we experienced at the turn of 80-90-ies of the last century, before the collapse of the Soviet Union. Because first revolution occurs in the minds. It’s not even the willingness of people to oppose the government. It’s the unwillingness to consider it a power that deserves obedience and respect, something that is called a loss of legitimacy.
— What are your predictions often come true… But the coincidence of dates — and you are predicting the beginning of change in 2017 — scary. Would not want any of the new 1917, no new Lenin, who can pick up the power and plunge our country once again in some kind of horror.
— Theoretically, of course, cannot be ruled out. However, don’t underestimate the common sense and restraint of the companies. Even an angry society. Russian is extremely bad experiences.
Our people are very afraid of change. They need a long time to beat on the heads that they came to believe that change is better than the preservation of power.
This is the first. The second large-scale bloody excesses usually occur where a large proportion of young people. Russia among these countries is not exactly true. And then, if we have in 90-e years when the economic and social situation was much worse than it is now, the civil war began and the Nazis to power did not come, but today the chances of such a development are vanishingly small. But the power of the fear of very successful plays. Inside the country and outside. I often notice how the Pro-governmental experts send the same signal to your Western colleagues: did you know that people can come, which will be more dangerous and worse than Putin? And I see West side begins to think.
In professional jargon this is called “trade in fear”.
“The effect of the Crimea exhausted”
Is the key to any revolution is a request for justice. How big is it in Russia today? Crimea partly satisfied this request or is it different things?
— Crimea has responded to the need for national assertiveness, national pride. And this need he satisfied, at the same time, partly offsetting the initial phase of the crisis. But the effect of the Crimea exhausted. Back in the spring of 2014 I was told that it will last for one and a half, two years. And this effect is exhausted at the end of 2015. Please note that in the parliamentary elections, the agenda of the Crimea in General does not appear. In contemporary discussions it is not present, because today people do not care.
People is first and foremost a social perspective: the revenues that decline, unemployment, the collapse of education and health… Well, Yes, our Crimea — well, that’s all. The problem of Crimea does not look political divide of the future.
In the case of mass protest activity we see in the same ranks of people who say “Crimea is ours” and saying “Crimea is not ours”.
It will not be for them to have any value. Because a major crisis, the political disposition of simplified maximum — you “for” or “against” the current government.
— And the most notorious a majority of 86%, which rallied around the government thanks to the Crimea?
— Those who have the power, always sitting at home. The government itself taught them: all you have to do — every four to five years for it to come to vote. But those who are against, know that only their actions determine the fate of themselves, their children and grandchildren. They have the motivation. Yes, they’ll be intimidated. They don’t know what to do.
— In his book, you write that, while elites are United, there is no revolution. The Russian inner circle, judging by your words, today United as never before.
— The elites — a very strong power. Associated, first, with what aggravated the division of material resources, which are dwindling. There is a fierce, truly a wolf fight. So everyone who can come out of the tax residency in Russia. Second, it undermined faith in the infallibility of the leader. And most importantly, do not see prospects. The elite does not understand how this situation can go.
Because the whole strategy of power based on one thing: we will wait. What?
Maybe increase the price of oil. Or here in the US will be a different President — no matter who, but just open a window of opportunity. Or in the European Union formed the group of the revisionist countries opposed to sanctions. In General, they expect miracles. But the unity within the elite anymore. Therefore, as soon as the pressure from below, they immediately begin to think how to escape, about what will happen to them after Putin. Now they don’t have what not say, and even think. Only alone, and then, perhaps, with caution.
“Russia needs 15-20 years of peace”
— You often say that the best thing for the country if come to power, the technocrats, not politicians. But where do they actually come from, if in recent years the selection of personnel was on the basis of loyalty, rather than professionalism.
— In the higher layer Yes. But lower — at the level of Deputy Ministers, heads of departments — many highly professional and Patriotic people. Although overall in Russia, unfortunately, not very much. But nevertheless they are there. Development strategy of the country — at least economic, development technologies — must be in the hands of professionals. And it will happen. And the contours of any political and foreign policy strategy of Russia is clear. Russia needs 15-20 years of peace. No feverish activity in foreign policy. No huge PR projects in the country. Because it is not what.
— We had 15 years of stability. What?
— These 15 years has been, unfortunately, wasted, that we should frankly admit. And it’s awful. This is one of the reasons for the discontent and anger of citizens when they suddenly realize that their prosperity behind. It’s just that we lived, worked, and our life became better. Yes, we knew that someone she quite good, but in our anything to change for the better.
And suddenly we realize that the Golden age behind us. Ahead anything good does not Shine. Us, gnawing resentment.
The offense not only for himself, but for children and grandchildren. Thus we see a number of people who have yachts in short did not. And it causes very strong irritation. This sense of injustice is what prompts people to leave the square.
— You speak as if the revolution was a foregone conclusion.
— Not at all. I just think that today it is much more likely than five years ago. Ten years ago I would say that it is hardly possible. And today I say: why not? Especially when the alternative is revolution — 20 years of decay. Or radical scheme development course, or 20 years of decay and extinction is the dilemma facing Russia and all of us.
— There is a third way, which you also said, — Putin will not go to the next presidential elections for one reason or another, and will nominate a successor.
— Yes, but it can lead to quite revolutionary consequences, to a radical change of course. By itself, the atmosphere of moral, psychological violence and pressure in the country is so thickened that just needed an outlet. I hope it will be more or less rational in nature. Because the country is in need of normalization of life as the antithesis of the current preservation of the social and moral hell. Should be the normal moral values. That, by the way, the problem for Russia is much more important than economic reform.
We have to restore the moral and psychological health of society.
To give society a healthy guidance. People should know that, honestly working, they will get enough for a decent life income. If you do well in school and work, it guarantees the promotion of the social ladder. It is necessary to reduce to acceptable levels — at least until the notorious two percent, which was at Kasyanov — corruption. To recreate normality. Just the normality. A normality implies that a reciprocal reduction of accounts must also be discontinued.
You talk about the need for retribution and lustration?
— Not only on lustration, but about the restoration of the institutions. If a judge repeatedly brought improper and biased decisions, it is unlikely that he can remain a judge in any normal country. Here are possible options until a full refresh of the judiciary. Some things, apparently, will require a radical and fast solutions. Others will be long-term. But in 15-20 years the country is unrecognizable. And its place in the world too. And without extraordinary measures. You just have to return to normality, and gradually it will work. I think such ideas can become the basis for revolutionary transformation. Because people in our country have the good sense not to want again to take and share.
