In April 2016, the Federal state statistics service recorded the compression of consumer inflation to 7.3% per annum. For the year — April to April — the fastest prices rose analogues of imports subject to substitution, and financial services fell by 6.6%. According to the consensus of analysts, inflation is waiting for leap to 7.8-8% by the end of the first half and slowing down by the end of 2016.
The April report of Rosstat on the development of consumer prices shows their slowdown to 7.3% in annual terms. Inflation was 0.1 percentage point lower than indicated weekly measurements of statisticians and the market consensus. The main reasons for the sharp dip in inflation year on year — last year’s high base, inflated by the devaluation of the ruble and the continued decline in private demand. Due to the fact that analysts ‘ expectations are repelled from the weekly measurements of the Rosstat, the monthly figure is the third time in a row was lower than expected, amounting to 0.4% instead of 0.5%. The compression of inflation in monthly terms contributed to the stabilization of food prices (0.4 percent), the attenuation rate of growth of prices for non-food products (from 0.8% in March to 0.6% in April). Prices for services in April, by 0.2 percentage points) rose faster than in March, an increase of 0.3%.
Price statistics of Rosstat, in the context of individual consumption by purpose shows: the fastest in annual terms for the first quarter of 2016 increased prices on goods with a high import share or have already found Russian counterparts. Clothing and footwear rose by 10.9 per cent; recreation complex — 18%; textiles for the house — 10.3%; education — by 10.2%; tools and equipment for house and garden — 12.9% chemicals — 14.2%.
The only area of household consumption, which recorded a noticeable deflation— financial services (excluding insurance). They are for the first quarter fell by 8.3% in April 2016 by April 2015 to 6.6%. However, the assumption of “b” that deflation in the financial market resulted in increased competition for the funds of individuals, analysts deny. The Director of the Center for macroeconomic research of Sberbank Julia tseplyaeva believes that the effect is a consequence of the revaluation of foreign currency loan repayments. “The ruble in April 2015 was weaker, and the volume and value of foreign currency loans decreased,” she explains. Dmitry Polevoy from ING believes that deflation in the financial services sector may be associated with a reduction in interest rates. However, what the Federal state statistics service includes in the cost of such services, economists are unknown.
The Ministry of economy expect the acceleration of consumer price growth to 7.8-8% by the end of the first half — due to the fact that in the second quarter of 2015, the products are not expensive thanks to the strengthening of the ruble. In the further plans of the regulator analysts differed — if at Capital Economics believe that the current risks will force him to postpone the reduction of interest rates for the second half of the year, ING Bank see a probability of their decline at the next meeting of its Board of Directors.
While the consensus is that after a spike in the middle of the year prices will again decline, unless there is another external or internal shock. Among them Yulia tseplyaeva refers to a sharp movement in the price of oil (in any of the parties), the termination of the fall in world food prices and unplanned growth of tariffs of state monopolies. “In 2015, we are convinced that the tariffs will grow no more than 4%, but in reality turned out to be more than 9%,” she recalls.
Alexey SHAPOVALOV
Source: Kommersant
