It is no secret that the relative stability in the vital for Russia the Central Asian zone is dominated by three countries: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, which are interconnected in a quite complex, but more or less balanced relationship.
In each of the three countries in power are the leaders of the former Soviet party nomenklatura, successfully renamed in the post-Soviet period, the leaders of the Nations.
All of them — Nursultan Nazarbayev, Emomali Rakhmon and Islam Karimov — in one way or another, the adherents of authoritarian rule and de-Russification, multi-vector foreign policy and the absolute priority of national interests.
However, of these, only Islam Karimov earned the nickname Old Fox.
In a specific embodiment, the Central Asian geopolitical game of chess, where the Board always play at least four, including Russia, the West and China, the President of Uzbekistan noted the highest maneuverability.
This was evident in March 1991, when the referendum on preserving the USSR, Karimov urged the population to vote to remain in the Soviet Union, and it’s the 31st of August of the same year, after the failure of the putsch, first among the leaders of Central Asia declared independence.
Then there were the entry-vyhodne of Uzbekistan from the CSTO, a demonstrative turn in the direction of the United States, to Russia; the Declaration of intent to participate in the integration process, not to participate…
The centralization and concentration of power in the hands of the President — a feature of all the new Central Asian States, but in Uzbekistan, it was probably the greatest. And the role of the person, including the President, and the value of personal relationships between heads of state established the region’s political architecture cannot be overstated.
For Russia this situation is quite problematic, since in all the decades of the Soviet use of political and economic inheritance, gradually wetshaver, we have not managed to organize a strong grassroots infrastructure of its presence and influence in the region.
Of course, there is the problem of Afghanistan and a certain kind of risks associated with the economic expansion of China, which objectively can’t be removed or at least reduced without the participation of Russia.
But no one can say with certainty how things go in Uzbekistan and around it, if Karimov is really gone.
It is unlikely that we will be able to avoid new problems.
