Drastic changes should be expected, but any attempt of correction of Karimov’s of course inevitable, especially in the form of partial economic reforms. Uzbekistan can expand its ties with the West, as the country needs financial support and new technologies. It is therefore possible easy liberalization to demonstrate to the West greater respect for democracy
As predicted by most experts, transit authorities in Uzbekistan was quick and painless. This is not surprising. First, all groups and clans constituting the ruling class have an interest in maintaining established Islam Karimov system, which ensures order in the country and, consequently, their own well-being. Secondly, the first President convinced the rest of society that stability is the main achievement of his rule, while its absence will inevitably lead to a strengthening of destructive forces, crisis, and possibly to the collapse of the country. For more convincing, he referred to negative examples: the civil war in Tajikistan in the 1990s and the “Arab spring”, which ended with the victory of the Islamists. So changes in Uzbekistan are afraid of, but absolutely without them it would not work.
Correction mode
Care of Islam Karimov, born in 1938, almost terminates the epoch of active politicians, who had a child to take a SIP of Stalin’s day. The Uzbek leadership from this generation remained only the head of the national security Service Rustam Inoyatov. The rest of the post-Soviet space the total number of “Stalinists” is unlikely to exceed the number of fingers on one hand. The importance for policy children’s feelings, certainly can not say. But these people were the basis of what is called “post-Soviet generation of leaders.
Who became the second (still acting) President of Uzbekistan, the former Prime Minister Shavkat Mirziyoev was born in 1957, is an entirely different generation. In the midst of restructuring he was only thirty, and as a politician he was forming an independent state. By the way, the new Prime Minister of Kazakhstan Bakytzhan Sagintayev was born even later, in 1963. it is Possible to say that the long goodbye “with postsovetizma”, and along with the post-Soviet space is rapidly coming to an end.
Who is he, acting head of Uzbekistan, which will be officially elected on December 4 this year (in his victory no doubt)? Shavkat Mirziyoev graduated from the Tashkent Institute of irrigation and melioration. His political career began in the early 1990s: he was a member, since 1996 – the Governor of Jizak, and since 2001 the Samarkand region. Since 2003 he is permanent Prime Minister.
Mirziyoev – comes from the Samarkand clan. This detail is not most important, but ignore it completely should not be. And two words about his character: on his head he reminds of Islam Karimov. They say that it is even harder: there are eerie legends about how he would punish the guilty officials. In the East the character of the President cannot be ignored, especially as his human qualities to a great extent determined the policy of the state.
One of the reasons that succeeded it Mirziyoev, is his impeccable loyalty to Karimov. Another is proximity to RR Inoyatov, Rustam, who for years had been saving up dirt on all Uzbek politicians and considered the Eminence Grise. Heard that Inoyatova was afraid of himself, Islam Abduganievich.
The main concern of the new President is the economy. Uzbekistan is in crisis, to decide which palliative measures impossible. Starting in 2010, the GDP growth rate is continuously decreasing. Reduced quality of life. The previous head though, and recalled from time to time about the economic challenges, but the emphasis was done on the achievements. “People in the know” said that Islam Karimov deliberately misinformed his entourage. She told the story that one day before a visit to Karimov in Tashkent Bazaar “Chorsu” officials told dealers to understate the numbers on the price tags.
Uzbekistan needs to reform. Mirziyoev named six priorities, among them the current rate of economic growth by relying on our own strength. On the one hand, decisive action is necessary for the development of the economy. But obviously something else: the impact of the reforms will follow immediately, in addition to any changes will inevitably be accompanied by costs, and hence the increasing tension in society. Mirzaeva have to risk it: leave everything as it is impossible to change – is fraught with unpleasant surprises.
But to proceed, albeit very carefully, the reforms will have. And here it is one more circumstance. If reform is successful, then the President of Uzbekistan will try to attribute them yourself. It can be understood. Similarly, would any political figure in the Central Asian region. If they fail, the responsibility will be assigned to other “careless leaders” and officials.
Reversals and replacements
If the reforms have a problem, then the risk may be consolidation of elite of Uzbekistan. Inside it will intensify contradictions that are not so obvious. Some experts noted that difficulties may arise, for example, Deputy Prime Minister Rustam Azimov, who in the previous government allegedly played the role of “supervisor” Islam Karimov that annoyed and frightened members of the Cabinet. It is no coincidence that immediately after the death of Karimov held a hearing on the detention of Asimov, but this rumor was quickly refuted.
And I wonder how sustainable will be the impact on the situation Inoyatova. On the one hand, the political landscape of Uzbekistan is unimaginable without his presence. Moreover, it has been suggested that the country will manage the tandem consisting of the President and the head of the NSS, which Mirziyoev and owes its rise to power. Many people are afraid Inoyatova, has a dossier on all the Uzbek establishment, it is therefore possible attempts to weaken its influence, and on occasion even get rid of the all-powerful security forces, the Patriarch of Uzbek politics.
But Mirzaeva lucky that unlike many other post-Soviet States, Uzbekistan has no “big family”. Native Karimov significant role in politics did not play. Had some ambitions of eldest daughter Gulnara was completely turned off from the game largely due to the RR Inoyatov, Rustam, with whom she had. And then I wouldn’t look for a complicated political subtext that Karimov’s younger daughter Lola and her husband gave money for the construction of a Tashkent mosque, the Islom OTA, named in honor of Islam Karimov (the mosque built on the site of the old, burned down last year). This is approved by the President of the new act is a tribute to Islam Abduganievich. At the same time this kind of evidence of continuity of power.
There was not one successor of the dictator is not able to achieve authority of his predecessor. Mirziyoev “father of the nation” will never be. To play the role of mediator between the interest groups and clans it is much more difficult than Karimov, and the strength of the system will depend largely on the consensus between different segments of the elite. However, practice shows that at first cautious successor could then be prone to dictatorial – take the experience of neighbouring Turkmenistan, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov imitating his charismatic predecessor, Saparmurat Niyazov.
The problem for Uzbekistan is the Islamist threat, both internal and external. In combating the new President will continue the line of Karimov. Perhaps he will work even harder. However, the real threat, the Islamists can present only in case of deterioration of the overall situation in the country, the rise of protest, which, as elsewhere in the Muslim world, can manifest in the form of religion. Only then can be activated and return to the political field, the two largest Islamist groups, who have managed to weaken the first President, “Hizb ut-Tahrir al-Islami and the Islamic movement of Uzbekistan.
As for foreign Islamists, primarily in the Russian Federation banned the “Islamic state”, the effect also depends on the situation in the country, the readiness of the disaffected in the power of the Muslims to refer to the idea of restructuring the state and society in accordance with the ideology of radical Islam.
In the foreign policy of multi-vector Uzbekistan, of course, will continue as the basis of the dominant strategy. Vectors will be China, USA and Russia. However, Moscow cautiously say that the importance of the Russian vector will increase, but even if it happens, then there is no reason to expect that Uzbekistan will gravitate to the Russian integration projects, primarily to the Eurasian economic Union.
But it is possible to assume that Uzbekistan will strengthen its ties in the West, especially with Washington, while Uzbekistan is in need of financial support and new technologies, and Russia on a large scale to provide not. It is therefore possible easy liberalization to demonstrate to the West greater respect for democratic values, human rights.
To draw final conclusions about what will happen in Uzbekistan under a new President early. Steep changes to expect in any case should not be, but any attempt of correction of Karimov’s inevitable course. This applies primarily to the partial economic reforms. Possible policy changes will be cosmetic in nature. The main goal of the ruling class remains self-preservation. The likelihood of conflict at the top, though exists, but rather it’s limited to a few permutations or possible detention of several people, is too dangerous for the new President and General stability.
