The index (IAN), produced by the Higher school of Economics (HSE), though increased in the II quarter of 2016, but the Russian industry, the industry continues to stagnate and business climate in construction deteriorated. These findings are contained in the latest review of the market research Center of National research University (HSE) HSE.
As stated in the study, in the II quarter of 2016, the economic sentiment (IAN HSE) in Russia increased from the previous quarter by 2.8 points and reached the level of 85.5. “The positive trend in the dynamics of the indicator was marked for the first time after a steady decline IAN’s HSE for three previous quarters. However, given that the value of I quarter of 2016 (82,7) was the lowest in six and a half years, recorded a relative increase IAN HSE cannot be assessed as radically improving the business climate. While the indicator is only compensated for the previous decline and returned to the usual range and relatively low values of 2015”, — stated in the review.
At the same time, experts state, “for the past two years, the indicator fails to surpass its long-term average level (100), indicating the continuing adverse situation in the Russian economy”. The persistent downward trend of the HSE, IAN is saved with the end of 2012. During this time, there has been only three short-lasting episode of minor refurbishment of correction — in the first quarter of 2014 second quarter of 2015 and in the study quarter.
In addition, according to a survey, the business confidence index (ICS) in industry in June reiterated the importance of the previous two months (minus 5%) — “fundamental changes in the business climate have not been observed, the sector continues to operate in a stagnant mode”, experts stress.
Meanwhile, the IPU in construction decreased by 3 percentage points to a value of minus 19%, denoting “further deterioration of the business climate in the industry.”
However, ICS in the retail trade increased by 2 percentage points and moved into the positive territory, amounting to (+2 per cent) that the HSE describes as “the possible resumption of business activity in the sector.”
In addition, the business confidence index in the services sector, gained during the reporting quarter, 3 percentage points “within the zone of negative values”, pointing to “a slowdown in negative trends in the development of the market of services”.
In General, the HSE draw attention to the fact that “among the factors limiting the business development in most of the surveyed sectors of the economy in the II quarter of 2016 dominated the lack of demand for products or services: the negative effect on business activity stated about half of the respondents of all observed industries. Positive point is the cessation of growth pressure on the industrial production of such factors as “uncertainty of the economic situation in the country,” although he continued to refer more than half of entrepreneurs, and he remains the leader of the rating of the limiting factors in the industry.
