Four years ago presidential candidate from the Republican party MITT Romney (Mitt Romney), said that Russia for America — “geopolitical enemy number one”. Barack Obama, like many others, then made fun of this funny mistake. “I called the 1980s, ask them to return back their foreign policy, saying the cold war is 20 years over,” the President joked. Since then things have changed. Russian hackers interfering in American elections. Russia staged a massacre in Syria, annexed the Crimea and spoke about the use of nuclear weapons. Against this background, the opinion of Romney has become a generally accepted point of view. Probably the only American who doesn’t agree with it, remains the current candidate for the Republican presidential nomination, Donald trump.
Russian President Vladimir Putin every week finds new ways to scare the world. Recently, he has deployed missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads, closer to Poland and Lithuania. Prior to this sent the aircraft carrier group of the Russian Navy in the North sea and the English channel. He’s threatening to shoot down American planes if they attack the forces of Syrian despot Bashar al-Assad. Russia’s representative to the UN called relations with the United States the most intense in the last 40 years. The news on Russian television all the time glimpses of ballistic missiles and bomb shelters. “Rudeness towards Russia has nuclear dimension,” warns Putin’s chief propagandist Dmitriy Kiselyov and adds Putin’s quote: “If a fight is inevitable, strike first”.
In fact, Russia is not going to war with America. For the most part all this is just bluster. However, it still poses a threat to stability and order. And to respond adequately to this threat, you need to understand that the militancy of Russia — a sign not of strength, and chronic, debilitating weakness.
Vlad Pugnacious
As shown by our special report, published this week, Russia now faces serious economic, political and social problems. Its population continues to age and by 2050 are expected to be reduced by 10%. Her attempt to use the revenues from the commodity booms to the modernization of the state and economy had failed. Instead, under Putin sharply increased the public sector: for the period from 2005 to 2015 the share of Russian GDP, the share of organizations funded and controlled by government increased from 35% to 70%. The economy is growing at the beginning of Putin’s rule at 7% per year, now reduced. This is partly due to sanctions, but corruption and falling oil prices also contribute. Who will be rich and who will keep the wealth, now decides the Kremlin. Russian tycoon Vladimir Yevtushenkov in 2014, was taken into custody for three months. When he came out, he gave his oil company.
Their vulnerability in the country, Putin is trying to compensate for external aggression. Educated urban middle class has demonstrated in 2011-2012 for its protests against a rigged election that he needs a modern state. While oil prices were high, Putin could counter this trend and buying popular support. Now he strengthens his power, waging war abroad and fueling nationalist sentiments propaganda methods. He is afraid of Western ideas, because the Russian political system is extremely fragile, for all its repressive nature. Institutions that could become the basis for prosperity of Russia — the law, press freedom, democracy, open competition, by its very nature is dangerous to the rotten state of Putin.
A big part of both his presidential terms, Obama argued that, as Russia weakens, she does not need to be given special attention. Meanwhile, a weak, nervous and unpredictable country with nuclear weapons is dangerous. In a sense, Russia is now even more dangerous than was the Soviet Union. Unlike Soviet leaders who ruled after Stalin, Putin, has the sole authority and does not limit neither the Politburo nor the memory of the horrors of the Second world war. He can stay in power for a long time, and his age is unlikely to soften.
Obama often says the right things about Putinism — during last week’s press conference, he took a justifiably tough position — but Putin has already realized that it can challenge America and take over. Moderate Western sanctions, of course, complicate the lives of ordinary Russians, but they give people the image of an enemy against which to unite, and Putin — the ability to shift to the West the blame for the damage caused to the Russian economy in his own political course.
Ivan Not A Very Formidable
What to do to the West? Time is on his side. Tending to the decline of the power to restrain, until it finally weakens under the weight of its own problems. It should be understood that it may at any time to arrange some sort of a trick.
As the danger of miscalculation and uncontrolled escalation, the us should continue to have direct contact with Putin, even if — as in the moment — the experience of such negotiations does not look promising. The fact that success in this case is not loud agreement and the truce (although the truce in Syria is also unhappy, of course, would like to achieve), and the reduced likelihood that the Russians will do something stupid.
Worst of all, if this stupidity will be nuclear. Therefore, the negotiations should provide for the strengthening of arms control and cooperation between the armed forces. It is necessary that questions about nuclear weapons were considered separately from the rest, as was done in Soviet times. However, to achieve this will be difficult, since the decline, which is forcing her to consider nuclear Arsenal as a tool of influence.
Another important topic is the Russian near abroad. The example of Ukraine shows that Putin is ready to destabilize the situation in neighboring countries to prevent their exit from Russia’s orbit. America’s next President needs to declare — contrary to the claims of trump — that in case if Russia will use this tactic against the country-member of NATO (for example, Latvia or Estonia), the Alliance will take it as an attack on all its members. Separately, the West needs to make clear to Russia that if it will undertake large-scale aggression against its allies, non-NATO such as Georgia and Ukraine, — he reserves the right to supply them weapons.
First, however, the West should maintain composure. Of course, Russia’s intervention in American elections must not remain without a definite answer. However, the West could withstand a Russian “active measures”. Russia is now not even pretending she could offer any appealing ideology or worldview. Instead her propaganda aimed at discrediting and undermining the universal liberal values and propagates the idea that the West is as corrupt as Russia, and that its political system is equally dishonest. And need to split the West that has lost the belief that he could lead the world. In response, the West should show unity and firmness.
