Photo: Dmitry Azarov / Kommersant
The main strategic threat to Russia is U.S. policy to its weakening and establishing in neighboring countries Pro-American regimes. On this, as I write on Tuesday, 29 March, “Izvestiya”, the report said “International threat-2016”, which will present at the end of may the international discussion club “Valdai” and the Agency “Foreign policy”.
“Weak, trapped in the depths of the continent Russia is not going to be a serious economic competitor and will not be able to form an alternative center of power in Eurasia. A weak Russia will be afraid of Chinese expansion and will be forced to become a partner of America in the main project of the XXI century — in the containment of China”, — quotes the edition an excerpt from the document.
The report notes that the successful operation in Syria, Moscow began to find new ways of interaction with the West. “Russia will persist as a leading power in the middle East, is able to effectively conduct expeditionary military campaigns,” say the experts..
The authors of the report warn that participation in the Syrian conflict brings new threats, chief among them being the risk of a military conflict with Turkey, which could escalate into full-scale war. Another danger is the involvement in the religious opposition between Sunnis and Shiites is in Iran.
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Separately, the document mentions the terrorist threat. According to experts, this problem will not disappear even in case of victory over the terrorists in Syria, as the most experienced of them, most likely, will move to other weakened by conflict such as Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan.
Among other dangers, could encounter in Russia in 2016 — the collapse of one of the republics of Central Asia, the establishment in its territory of another terrorist quasi-state and, as a consequence, the penetration of radicals in Russia. Especially vulnerable to this threat state in the region, the authors of Tajikistan, the survival of which, in their opinion, dependent on migrants working in Russia.
In addition, the experts admit the escalation of the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh with the further deterioration of relations between Moscow and Baku and Ankara up to the intervention in the war on the side of Yerevan. At the same time political scientists do not mention in the document of the Ukraine, where the conflict is, in their opinion, goes into frozen stage.