Nadezhda Savchenko, a Russian court sentenced to 22 years in prison on charges of murder of journalists VGTRK in the Donbass, exchanged for two employees of the Russian GRU.
The talk about the exchange Savchenko walked for a long time, but only in the last days events began to develop rapidly. In Kiev, where Nadezhda Savchenko was taken by the presidential plane, she was greeted as a national hero.
President Petro Poroshenko I awarded the woman-pilot with the order “gold Star” and the title “Hero of Ukraine” for courage and devotion to the Ukrainian people. Repatriation of Russian military Alexander Alexander and Evgeny Erofeev took place in much more modest surroundings.
Why now made possible the liberation of Hope Savchenko? What is its political significance, what are its causes and effects?
Oleksandr Sushko, Director of the Ukrainian Institute for Euro-Atlantic cooperation:
Realized one of the long-discussed scenarios. It was one of the main options, but for a long time there was no political will on the part of Putin, vzveshivajem the pros and cons of different options.
But the decision was made, and it is the result of a big diplomatic work at the highest level, with the participation of European leaders including the French President and the German Chancellor.
In Ukraine, long believed in the possibility of this variant, realizing that Putin, with all the benefits of this step, it represents a departure from cultivated their image of the indomitable leader, not going to compromise.
But stay Savchenko in a Russian prison is a problem for Putin in his relations with the outside world, while Savchenko is on the loose in Kiev – is a problem for the Ukrainian government and especially for President Poroshenko.
There are absolutely serious calculations that emergence of Savchenko in Ukrainian political configuration will lead to further imbalance and instability.
There is the expectation that she, as an icon of the radical political spectrum, it can become a political leader. This is one of the calculations, although Putin surely there are others, particularly related to the positioning of Russia in the Minsk format.
Savchenko’s release is part of a larger diplomatic game. No one doubts that she now opened the way into politics and that it this will go through. The question is, what niche it tries to occupy.
Will you include it in the political spectrum as a bomb that will blow up the current reality, or will try to build some kind of constructive long-term strategy, especially with the party “Batkivschyna nominated her to Parliament?
Meeting at the airport have already shown that not everyone is clear in its relations with the party’s leader Yulia Tymoshenko. Severely weakened Ukrainian far right, now not having any political representation, will also be trying to draw her as a leader.
Savchenko has character, it will not be easily bribed with material goods. But it has its weaknesses, and experienced puppeteers will try to play them.
As she already stated, she knows what to do, but do not know how. And it raises some questions. Obviously, that Nadezhda Savchenko is committed to be a leader, but it is not clear how exactly it will operate.
Victor Parshutkin, the lawyer:
I guess Savchenko from the very beginning was and still is manipulated in a big political game. Hope Savchenko now is really a great value for Ukraine. She may be the only person not tainted by corruption scandals and offshore stories.
Savchenko return to Kiev after she was told that she is the Ukrainian Joan of Arc, passionary and she is extremely capable of leading the opposition, armed, uncontrolled forces. Ukraine is now full of extremist elements, the people dissatisfied with policy of the President that possesses weapons and is able to oppose the President at any time.
It is primarily a danger to Poroshenko. I assume that from the very beginning it was an FSB operation. From an unknown girl she was turned into a towering figure, pumped her muscles and now sent to Ukraine to destabilize. Poroshenko does not understand this.
