All of Europe trembles with the realization that Russia and the United States about something agreed. Just as long as this agreement hold and do not advertise
U.S. Secretary of state John Kerry, who visited the Russian capital on a visit on March 23-24, got off the plane with the case, which has attracted the attention of the press. President Vladimir Putin during the meeting joked that in the US there is no one to help the Secretary of state to carry a suitcase or one brought money to bargain on key issues”. The Secretary of state, in turn, called the contents of the diplomat’s “surprise” that will surprise the Russian President. However, after negotiations, he never answered the question of journalists, what was in the briefcase, saying it will remain a secret.
Doctor of political Sciences, Professor of Moscow state University. M. V. Lomonosov, member of the Scientific Council under the security Council of the Russian Federation Andrey manoylo believes that the contents of the case, Kerry was the basis for a strategic “Pact Kerry-Lavrov”. That is this “Pact”, explains the expert…
– All Europe tremble from the realization that Russia and the United States about something agreed. Just as long as this agreement hold and do not advertise. Although, in reality, everything is already decided behind the EU, other allies of the United States. Thus, perhaps the world is already divided between the two major centers of the new global confrontation – the US and Russia.
And it’s quite possible that there is a secret Protocol to this agreement, by which a new demarcation line that defines the zone of influence of Russia and the United States. And this line passes through the territory of the EU. European countries are very afraid that this Protocol is not repeated in its General outline and the principles of the secret Appendix to the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact.
– Andrey Viktorovich, you want to say that in March in the Kremlin were some separate negotiations?
– No, not separate. The agreements reached within the framework of cooperation of foreign Ministers of the two States, both legal and not were invisible. Everyone in the world noticed that for the past year and a half, Kerry speaks to Moscow. And he always arrives on the eve of some events of a particular nature. This creates the impression that the line of the Kerry-Lavrov (between the US and Russia), despite the apparent antagonism of the opposition, regularly “check watch”.
While the heads of States still adhere to the rhetoric of confrontation. However, in the last time, Obama is increasingly calling Putin, and on a variety of issues, and Vice versa. This suggests that some agreement is there. Moreover, they began to be implemented, otherwise there would be no need for these contacts.
– Then in order. What plan Kerry-Lavrov”?
– To talk about the plan too early. Rather, we are talking about a certain deal which is offered and discuss the United States with the Russian Federation. The fact is that virtually all of the current White house administration adheres to business thinking. Its essence is to build such relations with Russia, which bring very specific commercial value, convertible into the sphere of political relations.
The United States are with Russia Torg, tilting it to the conclusion of a global transaction, rates which are high: is and Syria, and Ukraine, and “the Panama offshore companies”, and much more. In this deal Russia, despite all the antagonism, the White house is seen as a partner that may be as best purchaser of American assets that burdened the United States (e.g., Ukraine) and best seller, which can help US to restore their prestige in the middle East, the victim on the contrast with Russia’s actions in Syria.
The global deal offered by the United States, Russia, may have the character of “nuclear bargain” between the US and Iran, and may be in the nature of a “Pact” that defines a new division of spheres of influence. This transaction is in the nature of a certain equivalent of mutually beneficial exchange. It is clear that the USA and Russia – great powers, today no one doubts this and says that Russia — a country at the regional level. And the exchange between the great powers from the point of view of the Americans can only consist in the definition of clear boundaries of the spheres of influence assigned both to the United States and the Russian Federation.
In this sense, the U.S. considers other countries, including its allies, as a kind of bargaining assets. They have a certain price, so you can be the subject of bargaining. It’s a style. And regular visits by Kerry to Moscow, I regard as the business talks, which are traded.
During all this time Russia offered several options for the transaction. Last visit Kerry with a red suitcase in one hand and a guitar in another, and a new phase of the bargaining. In the suitcase there was nothing (except a bottle of Scotch and two glasses), but he had to attract attention. All of this was to signal to other countries (particularly Western Europe) that the deal between the United States and Russia was almost finished, and most of the settings consistent.
Mutual moves of Russia and the USA are obviously coherent. And these signals clearly believed not only in Russian political circles, but almost all Western and European elites. They were all scared and flustered, reminding gutted anthill.
Concerns of Europeans regarding the fact that the secret Pact between Russia and the United States already exist, in my opinion, can be quite justified. The transaction involves equivalent exchange. Since Russia after a successful operation in Syria is in a privileged position and holds the strategic initiative, Syria is an asset.
In order to keep some influence in the middle East (including on the peaceful settlement of) the United States should enlist the location of Russia, and, therefore, to buy her loyalty, sacrificing Ukraine. I am convinced of this. Before the operation the Russian HQs in Syria that it was hard to imagine, but now it’s real.
Today the United States sees Ukraine as a “toxic” asset, whose value decreases with each passing day. From the point of view of the business approach from that asset to be got rid of and the sooner the better, because after a while it generally will not cost anything. Here is the White house and in a hurry to “merge” it to Russia, which now is the sole power, has not yet lost the final interest.
– About Ukraine we will talk more in detail in the following parts of the article “Covenant Kerry-Lavrov”, so we will continue on Europe… What was the reason for the convergence position of the United States and Russia?
– Syria and Ukraine – two large playgrounds, where recently happened a collision of interests of the United States and the Russian Federation. It was a confrontation in the form of “hybrid war”. And with that, and on the other hand, these sites through affiliated supporters and satellites competed by the US and Russia.
Our country appreciated the strength and power of each. The result was an understanding of the principles on which should be built a new world balance. And this global balance, as well as the 40-ies of the twentieth century, as well as in the years of the cold war, can be built only on the delimitation of spheres of influence. When there is a straight demarcation line that divides the world “in half” or in some other proportion. This is an important element of international security. If this line does not move, it reduces the risk of accidental conflict that could lead to global consequences.
That is why the rhetoric of our American elites and often can be traced to the term “red line” that cannot be crossed. This “red line” as a Freudian slip — just an indication that the lines have either been conducted or will be conducted in the near future. And there is agreement on the fact that these lines do not, under any circumstances, should Berestovitsa, but if it happens, this incident should jointly investigate.
One of these lines will obviously take place not only on the Middle East and the former Soviet Union or Ukraine (I think the Americans will sell it as a whole), but also in Europe itself, despite the fact that there is already a boundary and its zone of influence (the Americans on the sovereignty of the EU as a whole do not care). In Kiev worried about this no less than in Berlin.
I think that the demarcation line may, will be held at the Europe, because for US the phenomenon of the EU – is very conditional. They care about the sovereignty of Europe and its borders. States very intensively “bent” the European Union, forcing him to be actively involved in sanctions against Russia. They treated the EU as its semi-colonies, which can be shared. With a semi you can do anything you want, in this case to approach the process very creative.
However, there is one “but”. European countries, especially Eastern European, are very afraid of returning to the Russian sphere of influence. Especially The Baltic States. That’s why they always ask me as quick as possible to expand the NATO contingent there. The Baltic States are afraid that the Americans, as always will negotiate with the Russian and the demarcation line will be much further to the West the boundaries of the territory of the Baltic States. The proof is a sharp acceleration of the process of Finland joining NATO. These small countries fear that they either “divide” or will provide themselves, and no one will protect them.
– But if you specifically. Which European country will be in our sphere of influence? Serbia, for example, our? Joint exercises with the Serbs here were… by the Way, I wonder there may be the same with Kosovo…
– Yes, there is a strange situation. On the one hand, our influence on Serbia in recent years has increased, on the other hand, the leadership of Serbia absolutely Pro-Western. So, what “our Serbia”? In addition, in all the former republics of Yugoslavia sits the elite, focused on Europe and the United States. I think that the entire territory of the former Yugoslavia in the case of the demarcation lines will be considered, as in the years of the cold war — as a kind of neutral zone with a special status.
Remember Yugoslavia during the non-aligned movement, the time of Josip Broz Tito. On the one hand, Yugoslavia was under the Communist regime, on the other, to any camp, they are not fundamentally joined. Therefore, it will form a special status, where Pro-Russian sentiments are counterbalanced by the influence of the Kosovo enclave which will constantly receive threats or to arrange another Caliphate or the great Albania.
From the point of view of the European strategy for the Balkans is very important region to keep it simple so to take and “share.” From there began both the First and Second world wars, so it is clear that neither the US nor Russia will not cede the Balkans to each other.
With regard to specific spheres of influence of Russia, then most likely it will be the Baltic States. However, the U.S. will try their first “cheat”, to create a huge tension, to bring back the troops, to organize the teaching (which is happening now), and then quit.
The Baltic countries are very small. Not in the wound as this asset has a single price, and if there still and lard NATO bases, the value of these assets from the point of view of Americans increases.
This is such a development. Baltic dilapidated asset – they even agriculture is not – it has ruined the EU. It is an asset in military-political terms, “cheat”: create NATO military bases, impose contingent, deploying infrastructure, open on Tallinn information centre — that is, artificially make the Baltic States almost in a military camp. Thus, the asset price increases and it will try to sell his opponent. It does not, it may well be that the United States will relinquish this asset of the Russian Federation.
– That is, the current NATO exercises in the Baltic States with participation of 6 thousand soldiers, there is nothing like an artificial increase in rates?
– Absolutely. This is conditional until a show of force to cover the transaction. That is, as if there is a confrontation, and it is actually solved. However, Western elites, the press need to show that everything is going according to the scenario rolled. The reality is actually changed. If a deal is struck, everything changed.
Now comes the hidden preparatory work for the implementation of the transaction. If it becomes known, rises the noise will start to panic – all this may prevent. Therefore, the parties continue to gnash teeth at each other, and US allies calm. They believe that participating in the confrontation against Russia as full partners of America. If the West wins this confrontation, the allies will get their share of the “pie”. They do not know that they are being used.
What are these deployed 6.000 soldiers to the Baltic? It’s just the calm of the Baltic States. They are in a state of panic, and all the time waiting for the attack “polite people”. Here’s to him being moved a contingent of the NATO. Another problem arises. Now the Baltic States can threaten their Eastern neighbor. And they will go to provoke Russia. And will do it roughly. Russia will declare some serious protest and appeal to the United States. Those, in turn, will join Russia’s position and say that they introduced troops to stabilize the situation, not to support the provocations of the government. For these actions the US is not the answer.
Next, the script will evolve as follows: the U.S. withdraws its battalions and say that now this area, they will not patronize. And all…
– But periodic aerial threat convergence of our fighters with the American reconnaissance aircraft how to explain?
Is a process of mutual testing. It has always been. Ready? Whether the potential of both countries is at the level of readiness to act at any moment? This is normal and makes the result of this transaction is inevitable. And if someone is relaxed and is not in full readiness, then this will certainly take advantage.
– Sanctions what will happen?
– It is possible that as a result of the transaction, the U.S. and Russia mutual sanctions will be removed — they will not be needed. Europe is in this situation would be to get out on their own. What is already happening. The French Parliament voted for the lifting of sanctions against Russia. The following can be Hungary, Slovakia, Greece, Austria, Italy. By the same sanctions will find a new point of application. She is likely to be China.
– Is it possible then to regard the visit of Kerry to Moscow as a turning point in our relations with the United States or it is a “waste,” leaving Obama, followed by “could not care less”?
– Rather, it can be seen as a turning point, and as the finale of Obama. He the blood from his nose” have with Russia is something positive to be solved before the departure from the post of President of the United States. He has in this respect there is a very strong personal motive. He would, of course, wanted to win Russia for this and launched an information war – all these offshore the Panama scandals, and so on. But this is hardly feasible: Russia to Obama – a tough nut to crack.
But Obama need to quickly record any victory over Russia (even microscopic) in the asset. To chronicle the history of the name of former Senator President Obama was written in polite terms, like the name of a former actor-President Ronald Reagan, who managed to undermine the Soviet Union.
Obama has failed to bring Russia to its knees, but he will think that struck her at least one significant blow. That Obama will be proud of for the rest of his life, if possible. However, the best move that will work for sure is to have time to make a deal on the division of spheres of influence and interests between the United States and Russia. Then this transaction will be bequeathed to the Republicans, who will not be able neither to abolish nor to denounce. And will only impotently gnash their teeth that the Democrats need.
The following continuation of the interview with Andrey manoylo on “the Covenant of the Kerry-Lavrov”. The expert will talk about how the distribution of spheres of influence between the US and Russia with respect to: Middle East, Syria, Ukraine and other former USSR countries. Follow…
