Yesterday’s bombing, which was abandoned virtually all of the aviation group of the Russian air force and all I could scrape together the Syrians, stabilized the situation in the South of Aleppo. In some places, the militants have moved away (somewhere in time), but in General aviation once again proved that she can stop the attack, but not eliminate its consequences.
In the end, there was a situation which does not suit anyone. The disputed part of the territory exposed to both sides through, so cut off was and Syrian units, and fighters. Formally, the maps, the blockade continues, but it rests on a narrow section through which it is impossible to supply one nor the other.
In this case, the lull means that the parties regroup and prepare for new battles.
In Libya, Gaddafi’s troops repeatedly demonstrated that even the full power of enemy aircraft in air combat operations if to come into contact with militants. In this case, the aircraft is almost useless – any strike will be to cover their own and others. Then, in Libya, the West was quite indifferent, whom exactly are they sprayed from the air. Now in Syria the cases of friendly bombing is not uncommon, but still it is the excesses, therefore, extremely rare aircraft bombed quite so indiscriminately.
By the way, yesterday was just such a rare case that justifies an extraordinary situation.
Despite the uncertain situation in the South, the Russian command did not disavow his idea of “humanitarian operations” in Aleppo. Its meaning remains the same – people in fact set an ultimatum for an immediate withdrawal from the city (however, without specifying a hard deadline), after which all remaining in the part of Aleppo where rebels, recognized by terrorists or their accomplices, and begin to sweep the city. About the same ultimatum put forward the Iraqi authorities in Fallujah. Our were not to repeat verbatim the words of the commander of the punitive Shiite Sonderkommando that in Fallujah all – including children – are accomplices of terrorists, but in reality, this approach is somewhere close.
Another issue is that of forces to conduct ground operations as there was no and no. Therefore, the threat of assault is satisfied only in one scenario – the ruthless bombing militants occupied parts of Aleppo. Forces existing aircraft to make it too impossible – too little quantity, and ammunition. But with Russia’s strategic aircraft, plus missiles can wipe in the dust in an area of approximately 5 to 10 kilometers, although it is even for them will be a very difficult task.
However, to exclude such a scenario is impossible. Russia nearly a year waging war in Syria, to present her, in General, nothing. Palmyra is valuable only for its name, in reality it is now a suitcase without a handle. Her capture was not used for further promotion, but because the militants are very quickly blocked her again. The ill-fated “March on Raqqa” liberated or strategic villages and barns look too pale for the industrial army, fighting with irregularly. The desired result. Aleppo looks like result, but to score we need a full combined-arms army with appropriate support and relevant to this inevitable storm losses. In Russia it can not go, and Syria, no such forces.
Purely theoretically, the script erase the dust part of Aleppo Russia can implement. However, while it seems that the “humanitarian operation” – a kind of blackmail. Rasschityvat the Kremlin that the West will threaten, demand and request not to carry out this operation, for obvious reasons, civilian casualties will be measured by five-digit number, and for Obama in a difficult electoral environment where he must perform his duty to the party and to push the election to Clinton, this turn is not completely necessary. We can expect some bargaining.
But this is a very risky game: States can alert and silence, he washed his hands ostentatiously. In this case, or really have to start bombing (which, of course, not too eager and for the same reason) or quietly and shamefully “merge” – something like “merged” under Tabka. There is a palliative option is to stabilize the situation and to wait again. As a country deeply third world, Russia is critically dependent on the US elections – only after the announcement of their results will have to change their policy. The Soviet Union was, in fact, do not care deeply, who will win the presidential election, but Russia is a pale shadow nemochny Union. Therefore, the entire political elite and Kamlat these elections, passionately desiring the victory of trump, somehow believing that when it all suddenly becomes Golden.
However, it is a reality, and if we fail blackmail to achieve the desired result, so will have to wait. Fortunately, there are only three months. Meanwhile prodoljaetsa menacing the wrinkling of the eyebrows and demonstration of unwavering confidence.
Well, finally, we should not discount the factor that can dramatically change the vector of interest of the Russian public – the events in the Donbass. Only today Pushilin warned of a sharp escalation, and ahead of the Olympics, which traditionally can be a period of hostilities. For obvious reasons, in the case of aggravation of the situation in the Donbass attention will switch to it, which will allow to forget about the question “what have the Syrians”.
