Elena Malysheva
Alexander Ryumin/TASS
Costs of Russians in June showed a record decline compared with the previous month, according to the results of the research holding “ROMIR”. The Russians were forced to spend on food for more than half of his salary that testifies to the increase of poverty, experts say. In the next two to three quarters of the situation will not improve — it is necessary to reduce inflation.
Economical as never before
Consumer activity in June traditionally falls, but in the past month, the expenses of Russians decreased stronger than in previous years, the report “romira”. Their volume in real terms fell back to the level of June 2014, roughly the same figure recorded in January 2012.
In real terms, the reduction was 11.4% by may 2016, estimated by experts of research holding. The previous record in the index was recorded in 2013 and amounted to about 10%.
“In previous years I have never observed such a dramatic and significant fall in the current year. Savings of Russians continues,” the report says. Citizens in the first half of this year increased their spending on everyday goods by only 5.8%, which is not up to the accumulated in that same time period inflation at 7.5%.
Cost reduction follows naturally from the declining real income of Russians, but lags as people spend on the consumption of their savings. In March their volume reached its peak at 15.7%, but is now reduced to about 12%, said the adviser of Institute of modern development Nikita Maslennikov. In January — may 2016 savings declined, according to Rosstat, 1.1% compared to the same period last year.
However, this mainly concerns short-term deposits and long-term, on the contrary, a little grow — this may indicate that the population is beginning to discipline myself. Saving mode has somehow affected 50 to 60% of households.
The situation is tense and volatile. Despite the increasing cost of living, the end of the year the number of poor may rise by some 3 million people. Real incomes decline for more than 19 months in a row, reminds Maslennikov, retail trade turnover — for 17 months. “This is an absolute record for the duration of the fall”, — said the expert.
Eats half the salary
Another indicator, which indicates the impoverishment of the population, — the increase in the share of food in the overall basket of cost the Russians. In June, this figure reached 54% (vs 50% in may), estimated by ROMIR.
According to the standard technique of defining the boundaries of poverty based on the share of food expenditure, is considered the critical mark of 50%, said Professor, applied Economics Department, higher school of Economics Natalya Tikhonova. This figure is used, for example, in Latin America.
“Indirectly uses it and our Rosstat, which tried to shape living wage so that the share of expenditure on food does not exceed 50%,” — says the expert.
Based on this criterion, the number of poor in Russia is higher than the official figure of Rosstat and reaches 30-35%, says Tikhonov. “However, we must admit that we have people like to eat on food saves last — such a national trait. The Russians always better to buy himself sausages — often more expensive than some new things,” she said.
At a critical increase in the share of expenditure on eating out of the wallets of the Russians pointed out during the winter, the Institute for social analysis and forecasting Ranhigs. According to him, the “red line” was passed in February of this year, when food with consideration of alcohol and tobacco products took a 50.1% in retail trade turnover. This trend is logical and reflects the fact that reducing the real costs and the growth of poverty”, noted the economists.
With hope for low inflation
The crisis hit different at different points: if in the countryside suffered more from the dismissal of some and the growth of the unpaid load on the other, in larger cities, sharply reduced the incomes of people in groups with earnings above the average, said Tikhonova from the HSE. “Cut bonuses, premiums, did not increase the salary — as a result of this part of the population is forced to save much more,” she notes.
Data “romira” also suggest that the inhabitants of the cities now are getting poorer much faster than the rest of the Russians: their average costs declined by 15.7%. Muscovites in June, save even more by reducing spending by 16.2% compared with may.
In the next two to three quarters of people will have to stay in the saving mode, said Maslennikov, but hope the situation will improve in the next year there. The preservation of the trajectory of decline in prices of 5-6% this year — not bad, but if by the end of 2017, authorities will be able to achieve the target of 4%, “the recovery of incomes of Russians) just at this time and will be held”, he said.
