The Russian economy returned to the lowest point of the current crisis. This is stated in the analytical review “Comments on state and business” for the period from 14 March to 4 April the center of the Higher school of Economics.
Experts note that in February 2016, “the rebound from the bottom”, which was noticeable in the second half of last year, ceased, and “the level of economic activity returned to the low point of the current crisis may 2015”.
Analysts believe that the industry by the end of this year could continue “to lie on the bottom”, in addition, they consider possible reduction of the index of basic industries for the year to 1.1%. The forecasted decline in GDP by 1.6%, if the average price of Urals oil will be $35 per barrel.
The HSE noted that 2016 is a leap year and an extra day in February overstated the values of all statistical indicators, but some of the results of February can be summed confidently. The first reliable result, as stated in the review, was a sharp drop in retail turnover by 3% compared to January — to the level of 2012. What is happening is due to the fact that in December and January, retail turnover was kept from falling due to consumer excitement amid weakening of the ruble to record levels (83% in January).
“Although Rosstat stopped publishing the monthly dynamics of investment, given the lack of growth in construction and the continued depression in the industrial production of investment goods, we can conclude that the flow of funds from the consumer sector in investment is still not happening, then there is an investment crisis continues,” say the economists.
Analyzing the financial data of banks, professionals of the HSE conclude that the companies repay foreign currency loans and currency was transferred to state banks. At the same time reduces the population of foreign currency deposits in banks.
At the same time, analysts point out that a promising the consistent anti-inflationary policy of the Bank of Russia, which contributes to the reduction of inflation expectations and creates conditions for revival of the investment process and economic growth in General.
At the end of March, the specialists of Economics has developed two scenarios of Russian economy development till 2020 — both of these suggest that the country will not come out of the recession, even with rising oil prices in 2016 to $45 and subsequent stabilisation at the level of $50 per barrel.
