In Syria, Russia is fighting in the ruins of the state, the process of disintegration which started long before Putin, and the death which was almost inevitable, says Russian journalist Konstantin Eggert.
Frames mockery of Syrians over the bodies of Russian officers who were shot down in Idlib helicopter is an eerie reminder of the barbarism into which plunged the country, which five years ago was considered one of the most educated and secular in the middle East.
Curious neighbors and the specter of civil war
The word “considered” is key. My trip to Syria in the 1990s and early 2000-ies each time leaves a strange impression. Day – peace and stability. To clarify: the stability of the dictatorship, with the same portrait everywhere (first Hafez al-Assad, and then his son Bashar), and not conspicuous, but noticeable, if you look a little closer, social stratification.
Konstantin Eggert
On Damascus or HOMS could safely walk even at three in the morning. Because the secret police (or rather police, the Assad family has several) have been ubiquitous and chalk indiscriminately. This reality became clearer in the evening, generously covered tables in Syrian families. You could say: “Now I will go to visit a neighbor, ostensibly to drink tea. It will talk only about health and weather. He was the informant of the political police” (in air force intelligence, army security Agency – underline).
And then, when a curious neighbor finally left, began the stories – someone from relatives or friends who were arrested, denied the right to leave, emigrated. In conversations almost always pop up the word ham. This city in the late 70’s-early 80-ies of XX century was a stronghold of Sunni radicals from the organization “Brothers Muslims”. They are several years conducted a terrorist campaign against the regime of Hafez al-Assad.
In 1982, the father of the current President has surrounded Hama and literally blew the city off the face of the earth by heavy artillery fire. The victims numbered in the tens of thousands. The most common figure is 50 thousand. The ancient city had been rebuilt, but the memory of the massacre remained in Syria at all. It generated fear among the representatives of all Syrian communities – for themselves, for children, for the fact that the country will explode – even after 20 years after the events in Hama.
Missed opportunity of the Assad family
Interfaith peace, which is today enthusiastically remember I had never been to Syria “experts” of the Russian gostv, reminiscent of the “friendship of the peoples of the USSR” – if she was so strong, why the USSR collapsed so quickly? The Assad regime, despite its secularism, was doomed. In the country, which borders as the borders of many middle Eastern States were drawn arbitrarily by the British and the French after the First world war, where 80 percent of the population is excluded from decision-making under eternal suspicion of the Sunnis, it was impossible to hope that the crackdown will solve the problem.
Saddled with financial and commodity flows of the President’s family and its cronies had not done even the most elementary – did not give the Syrians the opportunity to earn and to be rich, has not provided basic for authoritarian regimes the choice between freedom and welfare. When Syria was still the economy, it did not happen without the participation of the mode close to the players and public companies. Last chance to keep the country from collapse was missed, when Bashar Assad after his father’s death began, and then – under pressure from relatives and minions quickly turned timid attempts of reform, dubbed “the Damascus spring”.
Challenges of the Kremlin
I write all this, because only under a magnifying glass the state propaganda of the Syrian anti-terrorist operation Russia is presented as a success. If you look from the side, taking into account the history of the last century, or at least the last 30 years, all looks absolutely differently.
The CONTEXT
In Syria shot down a Russian helicopter
The incident occurred in Idlib province. On Board were three crew members and two officers. The Kremlin said that everyone who was in the helicopter were killed. (01.08.2016)
Is there a breakthrough: what was agreed between the US and Russia on Syria?
Review: Barack Obama will trade Ukraine for Syria
Review: the Syrian roulette Vladimir Putin
Several basic tasks, which the Kremlin set, sending troops to Syria, completely solved only one – Russian weapons has demonstrated its efficiency and competitiveness on the world market. The other is to divert the attention of the Obama administration from Ukraine and create an agenda for talks with the new US President in 2017, has been solved only partially.
The Obama team, being weak, in fact, went on about Moscow, but about Ukraine not forgotten. There is no guarantee that future administration will toughen the position and start in Syria, tougher and more independent line, including, perhaps, a more active military intervention.
A military victory over the Syrian opposition for the year not achieved. With these (limited) forces and means it will remain unattainable. To strengthen the group in Syria, the Kremlin is afraid of: in this case, to avoid the Afghanization of the conflict will be very difficult. This is for the Russian leadership – the red line beyond which it still did not dare to cross.
However, another important task is to prevent the “regime change” in Damascus and see the Syrian civil war, the Kremlin) is never fully resolved. After all, even a successful assault on Aleppo will not lead to the end of the civil war and the establishment of government control in Damascus over the entire territory of the country.
Neither Saudi Arabia nor Qatar nor Iran, nor Turkey from their own goals in Syria are not going to give up. This means that the war is likely to be reshaped but won’t stop. Vladimir Putin faces an unpleasant choice: to leave without risking to lose face, to stay, to risk to be defeated along with Assad.
As I said in a recent conversation one well-known Syrian, still living at home, and in a relatively quiet area, “Syria is no more.” Russia is fighting in the ruins of the country, the death which was almost inevitable.
Author: Konstantin Eggert, a Russian journalist, presenter of programs of TV channel “Rain”. The author of the weekly column on DW. Konstantin Eggert in Facebook: Konstantin von Eggert
