The conditions for it actually happened, but Nazarbayev still controls the situation
Kazakh security forces managed to neutralize protests against plans to transfer Astana to Beijing to rent fertile land.
The organizers of the protests, which were to be held across the country, have been advised of their illegality. But still in some cities, protesters took to the streets.
And were arrested. According to eyewitnesses, quite tough. In the police at this point, that, according to the intercepted information, the protesters were ready to give the law enforcement officers back and “purchase” of alcohol – probably to “warm up” protest of the masses.
The protest not happened, the official Astana breathed a sigh of relief, but we can say with confidence: anxiety for a long time now prescribed in high Kazakh offices.
Now, police stopped the unrest, but they are organized and some really were not. And if it did, and even in a more serious scale? Where is the guarantee that the process is not connected in the most active way the US state Department? Let Washington now nearly up to this election… But they will pass, and the opposition in Kazakhstan will…
In an interview with columnist KM.RU political analyst and chief editor of the journal “national strategy Issues” Azhdar Kurtov said that despite prevailing in Kazakhstan “revolutionary situation”, to his leader to fear yet nothing:
– Connection with the “color revolution” that maybe is the place to be, but still the situation is not to say that that event can really escalate into a serious revolution.
The fact that Nursultan Nazarbayev back in the late 90s in fact already dealt with his most brilliant political opponents, he also squeezed out from the territory of Kazakhstan opposition, which could be a threat to his personal power. Including, by the way is touched and the strong independent Russian-language organizations. Those that remained, “formed” under Nazarbayev.
Dealt with it and then seemed all-powerful clans that threatened his power. Let me remind you that former Prime Minister Akezhan Kazhegeldin, which competed with Nazarbayev in the presidential elections, was the representative of the most numerous of the Horde (historically Union of Kazakh tribes – approx. KM.RU), while Nazarbayev was the representative of the senior Zhuz. Was crushed and the democratic opposition.
At the same time, cleansed the political field has its obvious drawbacks. In particular, it all leads eventually to the fact that the struggle for power finally goes “under the rug”.
And everything would be fine, but Kazakhstan after all, the last time presented himself (and continues to position itself as the most successful state in the post-Soviet space and among the CIS countries. That is, their state propaganda was not only totally hammered into the heads of its citizens, but also focused on the external world.
And the world eventually saw that all things in this country things are not so safely, because it was enough to “sink” the price of export commodities, primarily oil, as the myth of the welfare of Kazakhstan immediately turned around and repeated the sharp devaluation of the national currency, which resulted in a sharp deterioration of life of the population.
To present same to the court for its citizens and the world some success, which would help in maintaining the myth about the success and prosperity of Kazakhstan, Astana official and failed. The attempt to conclude the lease of a large farmland with the people’s Republic of China became, I think, not so much the cause, as the reason for the current performances. The already unhappy population to the protests implicitly pushed as the forces that operate in Kazakhstan “undercover”.
And this could happen for obvious reasons: Nursultan Nazarbayev already it will soon be 76 years old and, frankly speaking, far not all of the thread management holds in his hands, not all the issues he can control personally. You have some control functions “delegated” to his entourage with him.
The environment also plays into this: Oriental servile praises all his merits and virtues, both real and completely fictional. When he lives and monuments are erected in its name to colleges, universities, and constantly introduce him to awarding the “peace Prize” for some personally unknown to me the merits of peacekeeping.
In the end, Nazarbayev himself has believed in his own infallibility and exclusivity. And when the head of state, and not only of the state, by the way, losing the sense of reality, this is just further incentive to dump him. Because his political opponents masquerading in the skins of admirers, I see just the real situation in Kazakhstan. They see on the one hand a significant deterioration of the economic situation of the country and the growth of social discontent, and on the other a clear decline in the capacity of the first persons of the state.
Thus, it is possible to say that the revolutionary situation in Kazakhstan has matured. But only that she has matured, not that the revolution itself there may be about to happen. Because again, you need to really look at things: yet Nazarbayev has sufficient financial resources and security forces remain loyal to him. Which, by the way, showed clearly the current crackdown on demonstrators.
But the most erroneous on our part would be to somehow get stuck in the story. First, Nazarbayev that can threaten his power, can handle himself, and the aid of such a sensitive issue it is, of course, we will not accept.
In addition, if we would be connected to the solution of this crisis, it immediately proved to be extremely disadvantageous in a dual position: on the one hand Moscow criticizes the sharp pressure of its journalists in Turkey and Ukraine, and on the other she also helps similar steps to do the other country.
