The death of the President of Uzbekistan Islam Karimov, as can be seen on social networks, not seriously concerned with the Russian population of Uzbekistan and all Central Asian republics. It is clear that the Republic, these as communicating vessels, as the boundaries between them are still quite clear.
The Russians are concerned, would not care Karimov the pretext for the Islamists to destabilize the situation not only in Uzbekistan but in Central Asia. Recall that in other republics, the presidents are quite old age.
According to the latest census, people who identify themselves as Russian, in Central Asia, home to about 5 million. Still about the same — speaking of other nationalities.
The most “Russian” in the region continues to be Kazakhstan. Here in early 2015, the population of 3 million 600 thousand Russians. They account for 21% of the population, with Ukrainians and Belarusians — almost a quarter (23%). Fell sharply the number of Russians in Kyrgyzstan. But here it is about 350 thousand people. It’s almost 9% of the population.
But in Uzbekistan, the census population after the collapse of the Soviet Union never carried out. Therefore, based on the calculations of demographers, only to make a rough estimate of the Russian population in the Republic — 500 thousand people.
There are still Tajikistan and Turkmenistan.
In total it’s millions and millions of people. Touched by their fate the outbreak in the region the process of change of elites? And what can Russia do to not have to host hundreds of thousands of new refugees?
— A change of elites concerned Russian in Central Asia, as they have often encountered a hostile attitude, especially in the early post-Soviet period, ” says lecturer of the faculty of Humanities, a specialist in Central Asia Grigoriy Lukyanov. — After the collapse of the Soviet Union a quarter of a century. During this time the number of Russian communities in the Central Asian States were sharply reduced. And those who remained, for the most part integrated into the new States. Equipped with professional and business relations between Russian and other ethnic groups in these countries.
There is a certain threat to the security of Russian in Kyrgyzstan. The main reason — the country’s weak state institutions. And every outbreak of instability in this country was accompanied by pogroms quarters of the Russian population. It was in 2004 and 2010. One of the reasons was that the Russian ethnic group is quite well off in material terms against the backdrop of poverty of the majority.
As to Uzbekistan, it should be noted that the main achievement of Karimov — the creation of a powerful state institutions. The system created allows to control the state with the largest in the region population. In these circumstances, the Russians felt confident enough. The majority are people with a good education, to which not everyone in the Republic can afford. In the various professional fields they are experts, which in Uzbekistan is simply nobody to replace. In particular, the Russians occupied the segment of the security sector. It is no secret that in the ranks of the national security Service of Uzbekistan a large number of ethnic Russians and Ukrainians. They remained in the region after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the professional skills to live quite wealthy life.
The Russian population in Uzbekistan could threaten only a great civil war, is able to split the society. I the threat of such a war do not see. This is due to the fact that the social supports of the state of the system, which was created by Karimov, to undermine quite difficult. Tools providing control over the situation in the country, will continue to operate as under Karimov. There are serious grounds to assume that in the period of transition will have problems with security. This means that the Russians in Uzbekistan can feel safe.
“SP”: — what is the situation in other regions?
— As I said, the most difficult situation with the rights of Russian in Kyrgyzstan. This is largely due to the lack of an authoritarian regime.
Russia must do everything to on a mental level not to lose Central Asia. To expand quotas for young people of these republics in our Universities. Russian schools and universities in the region must be strongly supported by Russia. And to representatives of the titular ethnic groups of the Republic have not forgotten the Russian language, it is necessary to maintain an information network in Russian — first of all, to watch, to preserve the broadcasting of Russian TV channels, and, moreover, had access to the Russian segment of the Internet. Moreover, it is important that it was the media which, reaching significant for the inhabitants of Central Asia the issues, and denounced the Russian point of view on certain issues.
Of great importance in relations with the Central Asian republics have always played the issue of migration. Streamlining the migration of representatives of the titular ethnic groups in Russia, could guarantee the safety of the Slavic population in Central Asia. However, Russia has already used this factor in the past two decades, and did it quite effectively.
We need to continue to support existing in the republics of the modes, since they are the guarantors of security of the Russian population.
“SP”: — But the East is not only thin, but sometimes unpredictable. The regimes of the Central Asian republics sometimes behave not friendly to the Russian population. An example is Turkmenistan, where for some time it was forbidden even to write out Newspapers and magazines in Russian. The question is whether it will turn out that instead of people focusing on cooperation with Russia, in the government can be proponents of, for example, the Islamization of Central Asia?
— Turkmenistan is a special case. The Russian leadership turned a blind eye to infringement of the Russian language in the Republic in a period when Gazprom large volumes purchased in this country is natural gas, which is then resold to Europe.
Russia has always balanced between two priorities. We want to maintain economic ties with Central Asian republics. This is evidenced by our active participation in the Shanghai cooperation organization. On the other hand, we need to support Russian and Russian-speaking in these republics, it is not always easy in the political situation. Therefore, the Russian diplomacy always have to find a balance between these two principles of our relations.
In addition, we need to divide the Slavic population and the population of the title, which, nevertheless, speaks the language, keeps the orientation to the Russian world. This part of the population of Russia must be maintained. Because it in any mode will remain a tool for influence in the Central Asian Republic.
“SP”: — How seriously can stand the problem of radical Islamism in terms of the change of elites in Central Asia?
I repeat, the prerequisites for the change of elites in the same Uzbekistan no. Whoever has replaced Islam Karimov — it will be a man of the same mode and the state of the system, is now operating in Uzbekistan. Opposition figure, can not now claim authority in the country. The democratic opposition has virtually no influence in Uzbekistan. It is popular only among the representatives of foreign diasporas. The Islamists also do not have access neither to power nor to power structures, nor to the levers of influence on the economy. The situation is similar in Kazakhstan, which remains the largest Russian community.
Yes, Islam Karimov — a figure most powerful. His departure may want to use Islamists of different stripes. There is the Islamic movement of Uzbekistan. But his main forces are either in Pakistan or in the territory of the “Islamic state”. In order to redeploy some forces to Uzbekistan, it takes time. Besides, it is difficult to make because, as I mentioned, the national security Service of Uzbekistan works quite professionally. Most likely, radical Islamism will be in Uzbekistan, the bugaboo that will scare the population in order to make it more rally around the current regime, and voted for the candidate whom it will nominate.
Since the first reports of the death of Karimov, the Uzbek government has refrained from any comments, and high officials, as usual, engaged in the division of portfolios, ” says the political scientist, candidate of historical Sciences, researcher of the IMEMO Anton Bredikhin. — Soon the country will get a new leader and a new government that is likely to change the course of the country — both foreign and domestic. Do not bypass this process and Russian Uzbekistan. Yes, they are since the mass Exodus of the 90s left a bit, but still we are talking about hundreds of thousands of people. For Russia they are the informal “soft power”, a guide to her ideas and interests. Their support is among the strategic interests of the country. Moscow could not stand aside from the process of change of elites in Uzbekistan, which borders with our Eurasian economic Union.
And therefore simply obliged to support the forces that promote not only the stabilization of the political field in Uzbekistan, but also able to lead him to the EEU. That is, I would not expect only negative effects from the departure of Karimov for the position of Russian in Uzbekistan and in Central Asia. If Russia is correct to behave in this situation, we can get more loyal to a mode in Uzbekistan.
