The Bank of Russia has decided to dramatically increase the supply of rubles in the money market, despite the decline in oil prices, threatening the stability of the exchange rate.
Instead of Deposit operations, which were conducted in the last two weeks for withdrawal from the system of excess liquidity, the Central Bank will return to the practice of repo transactions, the regulator said on Tuesday.
As a result, in the banking system will return 400 billion rubles placed by the players deposits at the Central Bank last Tuesday.
In addition, the regulator will issue 620 billion rubles and will offer their banks loan under a reduced Friday rate.
The total market for the day can be thrown of 1.02 trillion roubles.
The last time comparable in scale monetary injections, the Central Bank carried out in December 2014, the day before “black Tuesday” collapse of the ruble up to 80 per dollar.
However, even then the amount was less (900 billion), and its supply was stretched to two weeks.
Before the elections to the Central Bank’s task was to maintain a steady course, says the head of analytical Department of the Gran Capital Sergey Kozlovsky. It was time for operations to withdraw liquidity, the Central Bank has removed from the market surplus rubles that they have not rushed to purchase foreign currency.
Now, when the elections took place, predictably, that the Central Bank can change the campaign to “more practical” oriented to help the Finance Ministry to deal with the problem of the budget deficit, says Saxo Bank analyst Kirill Samyshkin.
The budget is now substantially in arrears of oil and gas revenues due to a too strong ruble, said the Manager of research and Analytics PSB Alexander Polyutov.
In the budgeted ratio of 50 dollars per barrel and 63.5 rubles to the dollar, whereas in reality, the average YTD price of a barrel of just over $ 38. The average since the beginning of year the dollar exchange rate amounted to 67,9 rubles.
In addition, the strong ruble accelerates the exhaustion of the Reserve Fund: due to the fall in foreign exchange rates since the beginning of the year, the Fund lost 300 billion rubles.
The dollar should rise to 69-70 rubles by year-end, predicts Polutov of PSB.
Samyshkin of Saxo Bank puts goals above: on the background of growth of the money supply due to operations and the Reserve Fund and the need to pass new peak of repayment of external debt, the course moves into range and 71.6-75.2 per ruble with possible jumps above 80 rubles.
Infusion of the Central Bank is partly understandable, notes the analyst of FC “URALSIB” Irina Lebedeva.
Russian banks are now in dire need of rubles ahead of tax payments, in addition, a number of players do not have enough money to volnenie requirements for compulsory reserves.
However, according to Lebedeva, the need for assistance of the Central Bank in 4 times below, thrown on the market and is 240-250 billion rubles.
To 13.15 GMT, the dollar on Masuria grows by 24 kopecks to the ruble 64,8925. Euro rises in price by 29 cents to 72,57 of the ruble.
