Casus belli in the American: a possible provocation against Russia in Syria
Publication date: 13 October 2016, 18:48
When the events reach the point of hot conflict, it is up to the pretext. No one wants to be the instigator of the war, and there is only one method – a provocation. If tragedy there, it is necessary to invent, and then to rotate so that nobody guessed. And when vengeance whistling shells, to the causes already no one cares. The whole history of mankind is the history of war. A war without provocation is not war.
Provocation is a convenient way to divide history into “before” and “after”. This is a red line, crossing which is able to plunge the world into chaos. C incitement began two of the most brutal and bloody war in human history: the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand and his wife in Sarajevo led to the First world war, Glabicki the incident on the border on Poland – during world war II.
Of course, provocation does not always lead to a world war. More often, they are local military, or informational conflicts. Moreover, since potential adversaries acquired nuclear weapons to start a hot confrontation do not want anyone. But in the information war nuclear argument is powerless, a so it started out dry from the water.
Not long ago, the Internet saw the photo of the American F/A-18, repainted in the colors of the camouflage of the Russian HQs. Despite the fact that this was done ostensibly for the training of personnel of the U.S. air force, in social networks began to actively discuss the possibility of a provocation against Russia in Syria.
American “hornets” F/A-18 (left top and bottom, and the right – top) and the Russian “ducklings” su-34 (bottom right) the form and so superficially similar. After the application is similar to camouflage in the sky will feature almost impossible
The probability of such a development, unfortunately, quite high.
The purpose of provocation is not a direct military confrontation with Russia, and the discrediting of the army of Bashar al-Assad and videoconferencing in combating terrorism.
It will give a reason for the United States to inflate the hysterical media campaign, to close the sky over Syria, to strengthen sanctions against Russia and diplomatic means “to squeeze” the air group of the Russian Federation from the region. A then slowly to deal c Bashar Assad, which the Pentagon has become like a bone in the throat.
The most discussed version – the repetition of the tragedy on 17 July 2014, when over the skies of Donbass forces of Ukraine was shot down Malaysian Boeing MH-17. The tragedy killed 298 c of the West immediately blamed Russia. But, experts say, such a scenario is unlikely: C-300 and C-400, located in Syria, securely covered the sky from “unidentified flying objects”. A means to shoot down the plane will only from SAM. However, terrorists have no weapons that might shoot down the airliner at an altitude of ten kilometers and more.
The second option – attack “false flag”: the coalition aircraft in the colors of the Russian HQs can hit residential areas of Syria, to bomb the objects of the coalition or the humanitarian convoy with dozens of people. Then the Internet will be video “evidence of war crimes in Moscow.” On the return arguments of the Russian side, no one will pay attention.
The charge c false content – Nostrum in the Western press: this method does not require large expenditures. “Strike on civilians in residential districts of Aleppo” enough mobile phone camera and a barrage of aggression in the media.
Provocation can be performed using chemical weapons or other weapons of mass destruction, after which apply a number of victims reaches the hundreds. Again, the alleged perpetrators are “Russian military”. Although the chemical weapons in Syria were destroyed and removed in 2014, the coalition headed the US regularly accuses the army of Syria in use of chemical agents against the civilian population. The fact that chemical weapons are mainly used by the terrorists and the “moderate opposition”, they don’t mind.
The permanent representative of Syria to the UN Bashar ja’afari in September 2016, said that the terrorists are preparing a provocation with the use of toxic substances:
I have information that the terrorist group “Ahrar al-sham” intend to carry out attacks on civilians with white phosphorus in order to fabricate accusations against the Syrian state and its army.
According to him, the American experts have already visited the vault of terrorists c toxic substances in the province of Idlib.
No less likely is the establishment of man-made disaster. The attack on energy facilities or industry will cause considerable damage to the population. A simple power outage could plunge the country into the stone age. In early March of this year, the blackout in Syria has already happened: militants fired several rockets at the power plant in the province of Hama, which led to blackouts throughout the country. It is fortunate that the consequences of the attack were quickly eliminated. If, however, they destroyed the vital elements of the station, the repair may be delayed for a long time.
At the moment there is a possibility of undermining of the dam near the city of raqqa. This attack is able to flood a significant portion of Iraq and shut down all of Eastern Syria.
There is information that at this dam the militants of the Islamic state (a terrorist organization banned in Russia) holding the most valuable prisoners. The strategic purpose of this facility makes it impossible to strike on the hiding militants, but the undermining of the structures by the forces of the terrorists is not excluded.
The greatest threat is terrorist attacks on industrial facilities. In Syria there are several chemical plants. As a rule, they are the structure of storage for chemical reagents and finished products. Terrorist attack on such an object will lead to a massive environmental disaster. Air and soil will be contaminated for years to come.
The most effective appears with the option to attempt to create a rift between Damascus and Moscow. The conflict can go on like with the Turkish scenario: for example, shoot down aircraft Syrian air force Russian plane or Vice versa. However, if Vladimir Putin failed to convince even such a hot-tempered leader like Tayyip Erdogan, to stop their provocation, it is hoped that Bashar al-Assad will immediately understand its purpose.
By the way, the Western media has repeatedly tried to come up with a serious disagreement between the Assad government and the Kremlin. Version Reuters, Bashar al-Assad is trying to disrupt the resolution of the conflict in February of this year the President of Syria was allegedly dissatisfied with the established ceasefire regime. However, surely such messages, there are real prerequisites.
Currently, Russia successfully conducts an information war and not give in to provocations Western instigators. The country’s leadership pursues a balanced foreign policy and to adequately defend national interests on the world stage. High level of development of the military-industrial complex of Russia allows to produce modern types of weapons, including space, to perform assigned tasks and ensure the protection of strategic interests. The presence of Russia’s modern military hardware allows to minimize the risk of provocations from political opponents. Radar system, air defense and satellite monitoring have all technical capabilities for early detection of provocative military actions at an early stage.
So the Americans are good, it would be better not to meddle.
Svyatoslav Firsov
