The name of one of the series of James bond “Never say never” — best exemplifies the characteristics of international politics. There is nothing eternal and complete. Reversed enemies and allies. Appear and disappear common interests. Canceled already started projects and get from under the table long forgotten old.
Less than two years since as of December 1, 2014, Russia finally abandoned the “South stream”, and now, at the request of Bulgaria, which initiated the breakup, resumed consultations on the revival of the project.
Most likely, in the near future and begin negotiations. Moreover, it is hoped that the leaking they will be much more constructive than last time, and “Gazprom” will be able to squeeze out of the EU as a whole, and Sofia in particular additional preferences.
The EU can not argue
“South stream” is good because he’s technically fully compliant with the notorious Third energy package. Gazprom allegedly pulling the tube only to the point of delivery of gas to the EU border, and then every country builds its own section separately. This does not negate the full control of Gazprom over the pipe. No other gas, except Russia, to go to it.
This is guaranteed by not only the 50% of shares of “Gazprom” in a consortium, but the lack of technical capability to ensure South stream alternative gas. If someone really want such opportunities to create alternative gas for consumers will be gold – would be cheaper pipeline to Venus to stretch.
Bulgaria and Turkey – who’s on first?
In addition, the constructive Bulgaria was not born in a vacuum. Sofia bustled in a moment when started to establish relations between Moscow and Ankara.
At the same time Turkey has accused US officials in subversive activities throughout the country (participation in the preparation of the coup). It is not yet a formal accusation of the American government, and claims to individual, albeit high-ranking generals and diplomats.
But since the US does not recognize their guilt, the Turkish accusations can go to the next level. The presentation of such claims have already the American government would mean his accusation of unprovoked aggression against Turkey (the plot to overthrow the legitimate government).
In this case, the relationship between Washington and Ankara will come to the point of freezing, but the personal attitude of the Turkish President Recep Erdogan to nearly killed his Americans needs no additional comments.
Before laying on the bottom of the Black sea pipes for the offshore pipeline “South stream” are stored in the ports of Burgas and Varna, Bulgaria
Each of your interest
Not the best way to fold and Turkey-EU relations. The EU is not willing to perform its contractual obligations either in the financing of control by the Turks, migration flows, nor to provide the citizens of Turkey visa-free regime. Erdogan has given the EU the period for reflection to October. After that, you can expect drastic action on the part of Turkey and an equally sharp deterioration in the formal (informal and so disgusting) relations between Ankara and Brussels.
As a result, Turkey who find themselves in a critical situation, having lost all allies, was forced to seek the last point of support in the face of Russia. Of course, Moscow is also interested in strong friendly Turkey on the southern borders, and not in another area of anarchy, besides an extremely rich Islamist militants. But the interest of Moscow does not mean automatic support of Turkey in any circumstances.
In the politics of “friendship” is always materialized in specific mutually beneficial alliances, projects, contracts. Nobody helps just like that – beautiful eyes. At least because the leaders of any country must defend the interests of their own state, and these interests may not be to tear from the people the resources to maintain a hostile regime from which only the point that it can be worse.
Knowing all this, knowing also that Turkey is more dependent on economic relations with Russia than Russia on relations with Turkey, understanding that without Russian support his regime very little chance to resist, Erdogan has made a number of enticing economic and political proposals. One of the most significant is the return to the project of gas pipeline “Turkish stream”, which was conceived as an alternative to the cancelled South stream.
Preparations for the construction of “Turkish stream”
The alternative may be the addition
It was after this fuss and Bulgarians, who realized that Russian gas will still go to the Balkans, only past them. And tens of billions of dollars, a significant portion of which could qualify Sofia, to settle in the Turkish pockets.
This is all the more a shame that the EU itself seriously senile in 2014, one never knows, its leaders here will be sent to Moscow to pay homage proposals are not worse than the Turkish. The question is: “why the Bulgarians suffer so?”
Sofia can not understand that the project “Turkish stream” has still to be implemented. But you can build the pipe through which will go all the 65 billion cubic meters of southern Europe need gas, and you can make the tube to 30-35 billion cubic meters and another 30-35 to get through Bulgaria (or other ratio).
In Bulgaria also know that Erdogan is a politician is not only hard, but also impulsive, easily changing the state’s course diametrically opposite. In addition, the situation in Turkey is unstable. Though Erdogan and won a tactical victory in the fight against the Pro – American coup- not the fact that he will be able to preserve their power and unity of Turkey (even with Russian support).
Therefore, politicians in Sofia it is easy to assume that knowing everything is not worse than them, Russian President Vladimir Putin will seek to diversify risk and adopt a scheme of two streams. Of course, as already mentioned, the new proposal for Bulgaria to be worse than the previous one because the situation has changed in favor of Russia, and there is no need to pay more when you can pay less.
But appeals the most ardent Russian patriots to punish the traitors and to refuse any form of cooperation in the gas sector does not stand up to scrutiny.
The President of Russia Vladimir Putin and Chairman of the Board of OJSC “Gazprom” Alexey Miller at the model before the launch of the project on construction of gas pipeline “South stream”, 2012
Politics is no place for emotions
In politics, winning reason and cold calculation. A cold calculation shows that the more Russian gas pipelines to Europe (and also Asia), the harder it will be to our friends and partners from Washington intrigue, blowing up the project of greater Eurasia (from Lisbon to Kuala Lumpur).
If Russia succeeds with allies (situational – the other does not exist) to implement the project of greater Eurasia, the US will be on the margins of world trade, and hence of the economy, and politics. And return to the normal format of a regional leader of North America, but no more.
Of course, it is not only pipelines, but also in the transit corridors, ports, Railways and highways, other infrastructure. However, it is not by chance the United States for almost 50 years trying to break it the Russian-European gas trade.
The energy – blood of the economy. The price of them depends on the rest of the chain of prices that determines the profitability of any production. “Gazprom” supplies to Europe, relatively cheap natural gas gives the opportunity for the EU to become economic competitors of the United States.
Well, politics always serves the interests of the economy. Politicians who do not understand this, get out, sit down or die. Erdogan is convinced of this, and he does not want to risk. Bulgarians also begin to “see the light”.
And Russia, the more us allies (situational) related to us economic interests (specific income, specific countries and people), the better – the stronger our position and the weaker the U.S. position in the global confrontation.
The confrontation forever, but it’s our job to win here and now (temporarily), and then will fight the descendants.
Rostislav Ishchenko,
columnist MIA “Russia today”
