Credit institutions explain the increase in volumes of operations with currency growth of demand from individuals.
The daily turnover of transactions of banks with foreign currency in September unexpectedly increased significantly. Dollar by 10% and the Euro by 29%, which is the highest for the year. Representatives of banks explain the ongoing growth in demand for foreign currency from individuals.
According to Central Bank statistics, in September the turnover on transactions with the dollar and the Euro reached $34 billion and $9 billion respectively. According to the Moscow exchange, the leading operators of the currency market in September was the BCS, “Opening”, “Renaissance Capital”, Alfa-Bank, Sberbank, “Finam”, Promsvyazbank, VTB, Bank “St.-Petersburg” and Goldman Sachs Bank.
In past years, this surge was not observed. In 2015, the surge was in June and was associated with the beginning of the holiday season, in March 2014, in connection with the devaluation. This year the situation is fundamentally different. Experts and bankers suggest that the increase in turnover was caused by increase of external risks, and strengthening of the ruble and the possibility to buy currency at an attractive exchange rate. However, they argue that the credit institution did not act in their own interests, and only served the demand from customers.
The market always expects in September to the deterioration of macroeconomic and external factors, including political, explains the growth of demand for currency the head of the Treasury Communication-Bank Cyril Sverjensky.
— Also during this period fell and the ruble. From the companies peak demand for the currency is around October–November because of the increase in trading before the new year holidays, he explained.
Deputy Director group Finance Analytical credit rating Agency (ACRA) Irina Nosova agrees that the main reason may be the continuing trend to strengthening of the Russian ruble against foreign currencies. In September, according to the Central Bank, the index of the real exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar and the Euro rose 0.6%. The average nominal exchange rate appreciated from 63,16 to 64,91 ruble per dollar and from 72.5 to 70,88 of ruble per Euro. Dynamics of growth of oil prices for the September Brent rose from $45 to $50 per barrel.
As for individuals, interviewed by “Izvestia”, the bankers noted an increase in customer interest in currency.
In September we observed a significant increase in customer demand for the purchase of foreign currency, — said the head of corporate conversion and regional development of the Bank Stanislav Makarov. — The amount sold by the Bank to natural persons of foreign currency in the course of a month about 2.5 times higher than the volume purchased from the population. Respectively, and increased buying of the dollar and the Euro on the interbank cash market. Such dynamics of demand, we are associated with increased volatility in exchange rates and the strengthening of the ruble. In the near future we expect to maintain customer demand for the currency at a high level.
VTB24 also drew attention to the growth of interest in foreign currency.
— We are seeing an increase in demand for currency by 15-20% due to a seasonal factor, — said Deputy Director of the Treasury VTB24 Paul Pshenitsyn. — In future growth of demand we do not expect due to the continuing strengthening of the ruble.
About the increased demand for currency on the part of the customer have informed “news” the representative of Rosselkhozbank.
In turn, head of the FX operations of Alfa-Bank Alexander Red explains the increase in trading volumes as the fact that the demand for currency was supported by the non-residents who had converted the received dividends.
— A certain influence on the process was provided and the risks of new sanctions against Russia as a consequence of the active participation of the country in several geopolitical disputes. In our opinion, other factors being equal, the demand for currency may continue a gradual increase until the end of 2016, he predicts, noting that explosive growth in the demand will not.
In September, increased the speed, not volume purchases or sales. The turnover growth due to demand and supply customers, credit institutions, and not the banks themselves, said the representative of the Bank “trust”. First and foremost, he believes, this is due to the increased fall business.
Irina Nosova from ACRA also believes that banks do not “stock up” currency in anticipation of a surge in demand or for any other reasons.
— Volume of transactions with the dollar and the Euro in September 2016, marginally higher than the monthly average since the beginning of the current year (+4% and +13% respectively), that is the argument in favor of the fact that banks stocking up on currency, no, — she said.
Thus in a press-service of Sberbank “news” said that no significant fluctuations were not.
The official dollar rate for today 63,15 rubles per dollar, the experts at the end of the year predict its retention at current levels, or a weakening of 63 rubles to the dollar, expects b & n, 66.5 rubles — VTB, 65 rubles ROSBANK.
