The top leadership of al Qaeda is greatly weakened after ten years of struggle with the CIA, decided that the future lies with the terrorist group in Syria, and secretly sent more than a dozen of his most experienced veterans there, officials said U.S. and European agencies on combating terrorism.
The movement of senior jihadists of al-Qaida reflects the growing importance of Syria to a terrorist organization and likely portends the escalation of a bloody rivalry groups “Islamic state”, say Western officials.
Investigators said, to begin the process of establishing an alternative headquarters in Syria and to lay the groundwork for the eventual establishment of the Emirate through the Syrian branch of al-Qaida, the Nusra Front”, have to compete with the “Islamic state”, from which “Nusra” were defeated in 2013. It would be a significant shift for al-Qaida and its branch, which resisted the establishment of the Emirate, or formal sovereign state, while they do not consider conditions on the ground appropriate. Such a subject may also be an increased terrorist threat to the United States and Europe.
Al-Qaida for years were moved to Syria. Ayman al-Zawahiri, the Supreme leader of the group in Pakistan, sent a high-level jihadists to support the “Nusra Front” in 2013. A year later, al-Zawahiri sent to Syria, a clandestine cell of al-Qaida called “Khorasan”, which, according to American officials, participated in the conspiracy to attack the West.
Build a stronger presence in Syria would provide the group with invaluable opportunities, according to Western analysts. “Al-Qaeda” in Syria will not only be closer to Europe but also to the logistical resources of the militants from Iraq, Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon.
Al-Zawahiri has released his first treatment in early may, in which he blessed the “al-Qaeda” to use the “Nusra Front” to form an Emirate in Syria. Some leaders of the “Nusra”, however, opposed the timing of such a step, so the branch had not yet done so.
“Al-Qaeda” and “Islamic state” have the same ultimate goal – the creation of an Islamic state, but they use different tactics. “Islamic state” tried quickly to impose tough, unilateral control of territory in Iraq and Syria and declare their independence. “The Nusra front” painstakingly sought to strengthen its influence in areas that he wants to control and other Syrian rebel groups opposing the government of President Bashar al-Assad.
American officials say that the “Islamic state” largely eclipsed “al Qaeda” global jihadist hierarchy.
“Islamic state” has about 19 000-25 000 soldiers, divided between Iraq and Syria, how do you assess U.S. intelligence analysts. “The Nusra front” is of the order of 5 000-10 000 fighters, they are all in Syria.
The Emirate is different from the Islamic state of the Caliphate by the scale of its ambitions, the Emirate “Nusra” will not qualify for a government for all Muslims in the world.
However, the presence of a senior cadre of experienced leaders of al Qaeda in Syria has raised alarm bells in Washington and in allied capitals in Europe, Middle East and North Africa.
It is unclear how and when al Qaeda can form an Emirate in Syria, which will hold the territory and, most likely, will strengthen its position against more moderate Syrian opposition groups. “Nusra front” was established in 2012 as an offshoot branch of al-Qaida in Iraq, which under the leadership of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was later declared itself an Islamic state fighting against the Assad government. In the same year, the United States has designated the Nusra Front ” as a terrorist organization.
But in 2013, the “Nusra Front” has decided to depart from al-Baghdadi, when he announced the creation of the “Islamic state”, also known as ISIS and swore allegiance to al-Zawahiri in Pakistan. From that moment began the often bloody rivalry between Nusra and militants of the “Islamic state” in Syria.
Currently, the top leadership of al-Qaida seeks to stop their losses in Pakistan and to make a propaganda coup in Syria by creating a formal Emirate. Part of the leadership of “Nusra front”, however, continues to adhere to a more pragmatic strategy.
