13-14 April, paid an official visit to China Prime Minister of Australia, Malcolm Turnbull – the first since he assumed his post in September 2015, the Government delegation has arrived in China accompanied by thousands of Australian businessmen.
Such a large-scale landing, landed on Chinese territory, had to witness the exceptional interest shown by Australia to the development of relations with China, which is one of the three leading players in the Asia Pacific region and its main economic partner. With Canberra it is important not to overdo it to demonstrate “warm feelings” in relation to one regional leader, to the detriment of our allied relations with the other two, that is, with the US and Japan. In addition, the process of the selection of Canberra the optimal strategy occurs in the conditions of active influence on the part of each of the three regional key players.
For Canberra the price of possible errors in choosing the optimal foreign policy strategy is increasing and because Australia is in the Asia-Pacific region, where the shifted “centre of gravity” of global political processes. Increased political turbulence, in particular, different subregion of South-East Asia (JUVA), to which Australia is geographically immediately adjacent.
With a total population of 25 million people today, she takes 13-th place in terms of national GDP. The content is relatively small (52 thousand soldiers), but quite modern armed forces spent about 23 billion dollars. (12th largest in the world). Australia (along with Britain and Canada) is the most active member of the American military actions in recent years. That is why it is often referred to as “Deputy Sheriff” in the Asia-Pacific region.
However, in recent years sharply increased the risks from the duties associated with this status, because the main object of activity “the Sheriff” definitely is becoming increasingly the PRC. It is therefore particularly conscientious “helping” regional (and even global) “Sheriff” can lead to the loss perhaps the primary factor in the prosperity of Australia, due to the extremely profitable cooperation with China in the economic sphere.
China is the main trading partner of Australia. Its share in Australian annual foreign trade turnover is approaching 32% (share occupies the second position of Japan is 16%, South Korea 7% USA – 5%). While Australian exports to China is 30 percent higher than Chinese exports to Australia.
The share of Australia in the foreign trade of China is only 1.7%, and it occupies only 14th place in the list of trading partners of the PRC.
Hardly the figures allow us in this case to speak of “mutually beneficial economic partnership”. For Australia, the development of relations with China goes directly to the issue of securing the economic prosperity of the country. While for China the role of cooperation with Australia playing a secondary role from the point of view of the economy.
But not policy. For the stay in China a substantial part of the “stomach” of Australia is a critical factor in her understated role as a “Deputy Sheriff” in Southeast Asia. And that Beijing is, apparently, actively uses in its own interests.
In the comments of Australian experts to articles in the Chinese press on the subject of the visit of M. Turnbull in China flashed the term “phantom menace”. Any contact with the discussion in these articles facts are of critical importance to Australia of economic cooperation with China in the context of the American project of creating certain configurations of anti-Chinese orientation with the indispensable participation of Canberra.
This evaluation policy of the Chinese leadership in regard to Australia, probably close to the truth and explains the worsening situation in China surrounding space. The latest indication of the seriousness of the challenges is China became the us-Philippine military exercises “Balikatan”, held in the first half of April They completed the landing of U.S. Secretary of defense Ashton Carter on the deck of the aircraft carrier John C Stennis (caught up at this time in the South China sea) that China was evaluated as a “demonstration of muscles”.
Same purely symbolic participation in these exercises was precisely because awareness of the seriousness of the warning signals coming from Beijing.
Canberra, apparently, the relief would have taken (quite likely) transition in the coming years the status of regional “Deputy Sheriff” to Tokyo. Such a prospect could become a reality if you are going to strengthen the American position “neoisolationist” that is perhaps the most remarkable feature of the current presidential race in the United States. Therefore, all the fundamental problems that today has to deal with Australia in the search for optimal positioning against a bunch of “US-China”, will have to decide on a pair of “Japan-China”.
In this regard, in the Australian review of experts dedicated to the visit of M. Turnbull in China, notable was the discussion on “automatism” connecting Australia to a hypothetical armed conflict between Japan and China (for example, in the area of the Senkaku Islands). Previously this issue was raised in connection with a possible us-China conflict (for example, in the Taiwan Strait).
During various events with members of the Australian delegation stressed showed optimism about the prospects of development of economic cooperation. Thus, according to the statement of the head of the Australian Treasury S. Morrison, maintaining relations with “our trading partner No. 1 would continue to contribute to ekonomicheskogorazvitiya Australia”.
However, it is important to note that half of Australian exports to China is iron ore and 7% for coal. But China has just adopted a new five-year economic development plan, one of the fundamental provisions which provides for the reduction of steel production on “zombie companies”, as well as the share of thermal power plants running on coal.
It is hard to imagine that is inevitable in this regard, the problems in trade with China did not rise as Prime Minister of Australia. However, the “output” of the talks it was possible to read only the statements of the Australian representatives on the correctness of the new course of the PRC for the restructuring of the economy with the increase in the share of domestic components in total national GDP and the shift patterns of bilateral trade in the direction of the joint work in the field of high technologies.
But it words. And how will develop economic reform of China and, consequently, the nature of economic cooperation with Australia, hardly anyone today can predict. Too many uncertainties have to be taken into account. And among them perhaps the most important result of the complex political situation in Southeast Asia and in the Asia-Pacific region as a whole.
