Regions with especially low incomes and the economy at the level of the weakest developing countries are scattered throughout Russia. While these are separate pockets of risks that can be treated.
The number of victims of terrorism in the years 2011-2014 in the world increased three times (Bloomberg 17.11.2015). We joined the society of total surveillance, where everyone is a suspect, whom searched, read the screens, watching the movements, interfering in private life. Is this inevitable?
Have fed extremism, rebellious generations (Italy, Germany 1970s – 1980s). People grow up, and it passes quickly. There is the terrorism of the minority in developed countries (Spain (1960 – 2000s, Northern Ireland, 1970 – 1990s)? Once fully consider their interests, it disappears.
But there is the terrorism of poverty, of desperation, of the great migration. No matter what ideas became the fault line – ethnic, social, religious – but the terror is boiling world of those who are countless, young and dreadfully poor. Their disorder and aggression in the 17-30 years when there are no roots, no experience, no pity, not their families, but there is passion, violence, and suggestibility. Russian terrorism, 1880 – 1910s, one of those who have not lived for real.
The median age in Afghanistan is 18 years, Iraq for 22 years, Syria – 23, Egypt – 25, Iran, and Libya – 28, in many African countries – from 17 to 20 years. And in the European Union? Belgium – 43, France – 41, Britain – 40, Germany – 46 years. It’s two different worlds. And viability? GDP per capita in countries “hot spots” – from 3 to 5 thousand dollars. a year in Afghanistan – 0,5–0,6 thousand. (2015). In Belgium – 40 thous., France 38, UK 44, Germany – 41 (2015). Break 10-15 times in prosperity, income, availability of work, quality of life. The nuclear potential of hatred and attraction. The difference in the unemployment, education, and just opportunities in life. In Libya, almost 50% of young people not working, in Egypt – more than 40% (2014).
Roman Empire 2.0 and the threat of its collapse. The story of migrants in the EU proves that the most violent of the border and the supervision is not able to resist the massive invasions where satisfying. And there’s only one truly effective way to fight terror. It is a flourishing economy where people are born and where they are now bad. To be developed. To be mass for the population is rooted in the worth, family, education, and quality of life. Everything else is just a way to temporarily restrain terrorism.
But is there any hot zones in the Russian economy? Is there something that is threatening – either now or in the future – bursts of crime and the fact that within the country will begin to grow critical of the influence of ideologies that cross in terrorism?
The answer is Yes. In the domestic economy has areas a national disaster. Boiling young the North Caucasus. On the average across Russia the share of those who are 15-29 years – 20% of the population in the region – from 22 to 28% (2014). But here and much higher unemployment from 9% to 28% (in Russia – 5,2%, 2014). Typically, youth unemployment is 1.5–2 times higher. Gross regional product per capita in the republics of the North Caucasus from 25 to 44% of GDP on average in Russia (2014). And although, perhaps, largely rescues the informal sector, GRP in the North Caucasus, numbering in dollar measurement from 2700 to 4700$. per capita (2014) is the level of Egypt, El Salvador, Guatemala. In 2015, at an estimated drawdown of GRP – another third. This means that went to Laos, Nicaragua, poverty.
There are other areas of national disasters. Regions with especially low incomes and the economy at the level of the weakest developing countries are scattered throughout Russia. There are about 10-15. But it lands with an aging, waning, weakening the population. They do not have that explosion of negative energy that leads to terrorism convictions. What do you have? Low life expectancy and high crime.
While these are separate pockets of risks that can be treated. Investment, lifting the economy, “economic miracle”, which can occur in any region if there is authority indicating that the development of all its activities.
But it is impossible to prevent these lesions will suddenly begin to multiply. For anything, under any circumstances, the Russian economy can not go into the red zone, when GDP per capita will be reduced in 2,5–3 times compared to 2013 Crises of this magnitude can lead to social explosions (Argentina in the early 2000s, Indonesia in the late 1990s, Ukraine), the growth of threat of terrorism on any grounds.
All measurements are very simple. In 2013, GDP per capita was in Russia 14,5 thousand dollars. (higher than in Poland but lower than in Latvia, Lithuania and the Baltic States). In 2015 much below – 8,4 thousand. (The IMF estimates are given in dollars for international comparisons)). No need to bring GDP per capita up to 4.5–5 thousand dollars. If this happens, we once again find ourselves in the 1990s with all their uncertainty and social risks. And again the society begins to split into dozens of groups with very different ideologies and support extremism.
But this temperature is the “average hospital”. For Moscow, the gross regional product per capita was in 2013 more than 30 thousand dollars. Almost Spain, “developed country”. In 2015 – about 17-18 thousand dollars. This is the level of the Czech Republic, calm, provincial. This means that for the sake of social peace in Moscow, where everything boils, it is impossible to go below 8-10 thousand dollars.
Another thing Petersburg. Everyone who comes there, it is clear that the city is very short of money. For each GRP of St. Petersburg in 2013 was equal to 15.6 thousand. Much lower than in Moscow, but still about Latvia, Lithuania. In 2015 this figure, which is very definitely “catches” the level of consistency, the satiety (or Vice versa) dropped by up to 8-10 thousand dollars. Too bad – I live in Malaysia, Mexico and Turkey. But we need to do all that in Petersburg he sunk to 5-5,5 thousand dollars. Such a sharp drop can cause a great tempest in the souls.
But you can continue to descend the stairs. In the Nizhny Novgorod region, glorious in its merchant history, GDP per capita was in 2013 is quite small – 8,9 thous. Today is expected to 5-5,5 thousand dollars. (2015). It Is Peru, Colombia. And traces of this fall are already visible. Black ruined old houses and broken roads as the usual hell of Nizhny Novgorod. But the truth is simple. For peace and tranquility, you cannot go to the level 2,5–3 thousand dollars. Vintage Nizhny Novgorod region, equal in size to the Czech Republic, it is impossible to become Honduras (2,4 thous. in 2015).
The Amur region? Integrity and serenity of Russia from ocean to ocean is the basis of our existence. GDP per capita in the Amur region in 2013 was 6.7 thousand USD, in the Primorye territory – 7,7 thousand dollars. In 2015, apparently, will be 3,8–4,6 thousand. But the red line in the future – 2-2,5 thousand dollars. (Congo, Papua New Guinea). If it were achieved, it would directly led to increased social risks and discussions about who’s who in Russia who feeds and without whom it would have been easier and satisfying to live.
What kind of stuff? Thousands of them, and often they come to the inspection and supervision were more sophisticated, and every sneeze is immediately reflected on the screen.
The economic costs of extremism – a life in the fences, in audits and control points, when a very large part of the population, the most healthy, active is security guards, people in uniform. According to Forbes (2012), accounting for 4% of the working male population. 1.7 million security guards plus the police (more than 1 million people), and this security function is not limited. 50% is the price of our poverty.
But for all will not follow, and on every action will have its reaction. So the spiral “assault ban” can be unwound indefinitely, and the cost of walls and fences, and security guards will grow exponentially.
Real medicine is another. The best thing we can do in Russia, to prevent any threats is to create a very easy, rich money and investment environment to give every family throughout the territory of Russia become wealthier. To the centre of the economic policy, the quality and length of life (Russia – 122 place in the world, 2013). Refer to the energy of each person, especially those who are very young – are all set for you, do high, uvelichivaya freely in homes, property, family assets, into a whole new, changing technology and the shape of the world for the better.
