- Recently, the state statistics service of Ukraine published data on the demographic situation in the first half of this year: over half the country’s population decreased by 87 thousand people. During 25 years of Independence – 9.5 million in 1991, Ukraine’s population amounted to almost 52 million people, now, according to statistics, remained 42.7 million
However, in reality, even this figure is overly optimistic, as here calculated, and the inhabitants of the uncontrolled Kiev part of the Donbass and the millions of compatriots who reside and work abroad. How many of them there – no one knows for sure.
According to the Federal migration service of Russia, in Russia there are about 2.5 million citizens of Ukraine who came to work, and refugees from the Donbass. Poland recently announced that it had received a million “guest workers”. Rest of Europe also constantly warn about the growing number of migrants from Ukraine.
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Most labour migrants are ready to go anywhere, not even in the most prosperous country in the hope there legit and then to move to more developed States of the European Union. Go not only laborers, as before, but the programmers, and young researchers. According to the survey of one of the Ukrainian recruiting services, half of the “white collar” in the Ukraine is thinking about emigrating, and one in five is determined to leave the country.
Taking into account those who have already left, the actual number living in the country, experts estimate now in the 36-38 million people. And as go first of all young and able-bodied, a significant number of the remaining children and people of retirement age. The working-age population in the country is decreasing, but even their work is not enough.
Now officially unemployed are about 10% of the working age population. The employment rate reached a historic low, and the wage level permits only to survive. According to state statistics service of Ukraine, the share of households that subjectively consider themselves poor part of the population is 72.3%. And the proportion who consider themselves middle class has dropped over the past two years to 0.7%.
We can assume that it’s a consequence of the policy pursued by the current government. Her fault here, no doubt, is. In fact, however, the Maidan and the subsequent events only accelerated the processes that go on in the country since the beginning of 1990-ies.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union and the severance of ties with enterprises of the former USSR within a few years ceased to exist many knowledge-intensive production, has closed hundreds of research institutes, and industry giants switched to the manufacture of spoons and wheelbarrows-“kravchuck”. In Ukraine actually started the wave of de-industrialization seriously changed the structure of the economy. This is what has led to terrible social consequences. Hundreds of thousands of professionals with unique education, skills and knowledge was useless.
Now, after another break ties with Russia, is the second wave of deindustrialization, which was not needed millions of workers have become “superfluous mouths” of the commodity economy. All this together and becomes the main cause of the impoverishment and depopulation.
The economy flush the Ukrainians out of the country. And if nothing changes, the situation will continue to deteriorate. Depopulation is gaining momentum and is actually already “feeds” itself — due to the reduction in the number of working and paying taxes, the country is impoverished, causing new waves of departing abroad in search of a better life.
It’s time to honestly acknowledge that Ukraine has already crossed the face of the demographic catastrophe. Therefore, in such circumstances just to preserve the situation at the current level will not work. You need to act. But it is not the way it is going to make the current government.
Attempts to create on the ruins of industry “agricultural superpower”, in which, according to the Ambassador of the United States, should become Ukraine, will not save the country from extinction. Just because agriculture does not need so many workers, how many of them now exist in the country.
Do not increase grain exports, and to reach millions of people with high-paying jobs in other industries – that should be a main task of the state. And if the de-industrialization started the process of degradation of the country, it is new industrialization forces to put an end to it. A possible industrialization for Ukraine without an end to the war in the Donbass and the resumption of cooperation with Russia? The question is rhetorical.
The author is head of the national Bank of Ukraine in 2010-2012
Read more: http://izvestia.ru/news/627609#ixzz4IzqdqW6L
