Winter is coming — Ukraine will teach Europe to ride? Dmitry Molchanov
Date of publication: 16 October 2016, 15:45
If Poroshenko was not a war criminal, the 51-year-old oligarch and alcoholic with experience, it would be very similar to the schoolchildren who got called to the principal’s office. You know how it is: stand on the carpet, two of the guilty, downcast eyes, dart noses and chanting “I th? He started it!”. Irresponsibility and blame is a way of thinking “seminovel” of the junta.
Recently Poroshenko said: “the Hybrid war is not only war at the front and not only Russian propaganda. This is an attempt of destabilizing the situation in society.” As examples of such destabilization Poroshenko took the utility bills. In both…
It turns out that “hybrid war” against Ukraine by the junta in the face Groisman, Poroshenko himself the whole of the Verkhovna Rada! The numbers of “agents of the Kremlin” has arrived! And yet “all those who today takes a populist position,” that is, all the forty million Ukrainians who are angry about new tariffs. Way to be strong! Just think, forty million agents of the Kremlin! The CIA turn pale with envy.
“How are you predictable, you idiots!”
A phrase I say to myself every time, after the next “Peremogi”, Ukraine is paying the price for a new crisis. For example, recently I published a forecast of the consequences of growth rates, in particular that will effect vicious circle “more tariffs — less payment”.
And here it is. Ivan Plachkov, Minister of fuel and energy in 2005-2006, the program Schuster confirms the debt owed to power producers has grown to 28 billion. and continues to gather momentum. All as in the famous joke about the “virtual” and “real”. Virtual Ukrainians have a housing, which is “rich” by 28 billion debt, but it is really two old p… Poroshenko of Ukraine. Ukrainian utilities included heating season with less financial resources than in the previous period.
“Putin everywhere” longer rolls
Another crisis of Ukraine, which for days has suddenly raised the subject on one of the channels is a crisis of confidence in the versions of the “hand of Moscow”, ie the Ukrainian propaganda, which patch any holes from “peremog”. It is crumbling before our eyes. The Ukrainians are beginning to understand that no, Putin is forcing officials to steal, MPs fight in Parliament, karbate to mock people and not pours vodka in his mouth Poroshenko. The problem should be solved, and does not cover. Once, before the October revolution, the Russian Empire covered the issue of religious sermons, the problems accumulated, and after spring abruptly gave the opposite effect and the yesterday’s devout peasants danced around the campfires of the icons. Today’s Russia is not patches, and resolves problems that extremely irritating to the state Department and “belolentochnikov”. And in Ukraine, where propaganda has acquired the characteristics of a cult… well, inter was already on fire. Over the cries of Poroshenko “hybrid war” and the “Russian aggressor” Ukrainians are already starting to openly laugh. Yet to laugh. From the soot on the walls of the Bank already long… And, therefore, excuses such as “you freeze because of the fact that the insidious Kremlin invented winter” this season will not cut it.
As infants grow into Poroshenok
Again, remember the old joke about what the future policy you can define in the cradle — the whole, sorry, shit, but keeps the head proudly. And Poroshenko, who said that the lack of winter this is a “rumors and gossip”. It is echoed by two more policies from the same cradle — Groisman and Nasalik.
Here’s a mystery — a year ago it was said by experts and trade unions about the fact that for a comfortable heating season to 3.5 million tons of coal, or at least 2.8. Now Ukraine wants about 2 million, but in reality there is only about 1.7. Of course, Ukraine trumpets the fact that there is nothing wrong, we say, have learned to save. In fact, this “savings” is a result of the industry downturn and as a result, the reduction of energy consumption. What could be easier, stop everything and save 100%. Thus, the junta hopes its “smart strategy” to deepen the crisis in the industry. The representative of “Ukrenergo” V. Zaichenko explains the reduction of the need the absence of the Crimea, LDNR and the reduction of consumption in Ukraine is 12%, for a total of about 30%.
With gas things are not better. Debt of the enterprises to NJSC “Naftogaz of Ukraine” only in the last week rose by 232 million UAH. and approached 21,3 bln. of which the debts of only the heat generating enterprises make up 83%, or 17,626 billion. The debt of power generating companies 2,326 billion. The debt of direct consumers 307 million.
It is worth noting that Nasalik does not exclude “problems with the supply of anthracite,” as he calls shy delivery from the hated Kiev LDNR. And in the event of termination of these supplies (you have to understand, if Poroshenko wants to resume full-scale aggression against LDNR) supposedly will be a transition to gas-fuel oil units. Member of the Supervisory Board of the Institute of energy strategies Yuri Korolchuk said: “European lenders had formulated a clear position, that winter should not happen misuse of the accumulated natural gas, including its use for the production of electricity at thermal power plants”. And oil is only 30 thousand tons it does not have money and almost no of power plants. Easier to stock up on straw and dung.
Realized for three?
In General, the situation is this: Gazprom says Ukraine to store more gas. Simply because of the Ukrainian GTS works in such a way that the transit of gas to Europe goes from like a transit Ukrainian UGS. Ukraine, hoping for a warm winter stores at first, only 14.5 billion cubic meters. Then, apparently after “catching up” of Europe that does not want to freeze, hoping with Ukraine on “maybe”, agreed to increase the reserves up to 17 billion But Ukraine may not be enough, if the winter happens a force majeure from a nuclear power plant or supply of anthracite, or simply a month or two will keep the cold in -20. However, Kiev keeps everyone calm, “5 chartered vessels” and coal, if anything, acquiring in South Africa, and to steal transit gas, no, no! Europe does not want Ukraine to rely on South Africa and “maybe” because in the last year did not get 15% of gas and had to be frostbitten, feeling the price of Ukrainian integrity.
This is some funny justice: Europe gave six billion people on the euromaidan, and then their henchmen forced the Europeans to chill, to jump and to feel like a “namaskaram”.
What happens?
Likely to be frosts. Stop the flow of gas to the enterprises-debtors. The apartments will be +12. If all is tight, for example, rebel Ukrainians, it will start taking gas from the transit pipeline. When the Europeans protest, Ukraine themselves will accuse that gave her the loan in time. Perhaps now in Ukraine there is a game with gas to knock out the stubborn European credit…
Will begin rolling blackouts. And then the knock-on effect for industry, housing and communal services and social sphere. It is possible, without sacrifice, if the surgical Department is equipped with independent generators. Policy of Ukraine will start blaming each other and figure out “who started it”. Kiev accuses the local government. Groisman has already hinted: “In the field provided with all the necessary for the heating season: gas, electricity and funds.” That is why Poroshenko spoke in advance about the “achievements of decentralization” — look for the money. Another accused Russia that Ukraine is “nezalezhnoy” refused to Russian gas, and “country-aggressor” cunningly refused to impose it.
But this is just the worst prognosis. And the best… In life there is always a miracle, right?
Dmitry Molchanov
