Ruslan Pockets
Dear friends. As you know, due to a number of historical reasons, most (almost all) the control structures of the Internet are in the USA. The horror, the horror, right? However, they are there because they do not climb into politics and continue to assign ranges of IP addresses, AS and other things, and if it does exactly is to delegate the appointment of regional affiliates, which already do all the work.
Once there to RIPN someone moves in terms of actions against specific large country — will begin a predictable process: all now pretend that we can be the following, and begin a massive replay of management structures to the side “that was General, but not in the United States.”
Ie from any of the beginning of this process, the United States, which is now like 100% of the Internet under control, losing because you can only lose. You can only do worse for US than it is now. Better not be, and worse — will.
Now to the issue of “isolation” of Russia.
USA is a country with 300 million population, all the inflated hayteh economy which is not particularly haytekovsky, but rests rather on mass patent Right of the Rounded Corners. of the blessed, and the subsequent rubbing in a weak brain “you have to update to the new, for any money, and then trash”. And all this is fully export-oriented. So a country can only afford somewhere to access to block.
What sanctions, what will they be supported? Any sanctions in the field of the Internet is the fall of the proceeds from entire segments of the economy and even zero revenue in some cases. All the high-tech U.S. economy is leveraged on the tonsils, aimed at continuous growth (other models of development there do not consider uncool), for any enterprise there is a decrease in sales of, say, 2 times is collapse and death.
What will happen with stocks such as Apple and Google, if they will leave the market on such a scale? And then what happens to funds holding stakes of these shares? And with insurers which will a close Smoking ruins of the funds? On wall street the asphalt to RUB away from shooting clerks get tired.
What megalocephaly clouds, about which almost 10 years is carefully rubbed that “store all your personal data from respected gentlemen — it is fashionable, prestigious, profitable,” after a one-time political problems of the form “you can’t access the folder “Shared documents”, because you are from Russia”? There will be a loss of confidence in the industry, and hundreds of thousands dreaming about Tesla and a house in California will dream to Latinos at the gas station is sick and could be for 20 bucks a day to replace it because I’m hungry.
Don’t believe? And you recall about the attempt to block the work Visa and Mastercard in Russia. What happened? The fact that all transactions and validation of these card systems in Russia are now on the technique of the CBR. And worse than that, the CBR gradually push through the Russian card system WORLD. MasterCard has already broken down and agreed to tobeijing is when the map in Russia works like the WORLD, outside of Russia — as MasterCard. Because it is better to lose a part than lose all.
Guys that you could RUB about the “Any business is bound to be high-tech, by this word we mean mandatory payments of ten different American companies with the right brands for the right purpose, or in any way” is of course a problem, but that’s only for the living economy — which carries, produces, bakes and forges — all is not so fatal as that whose essence is the resale of access rights to something virtual.
It is traditionally pleased to consider himself a Key Figure in the Business, but that’s a real business, if anything, the lack of access to the instagram will survive. And the Internet is 20% slower will survive. And, most importantly, no one who believes will not survive — also survive.
Here’s a simple example of how partners of Cisco, so we pulled up a Chinese attempt to cut the state budget that was excommunicated from the trough EN masse, and nedorezannye the money they gave to the local manufacturer. Two years plus two hole in his career in the hit head — and now Chinese Huawei is the world’s largest manufacturer of Telecom. And cisk is a tragic reduction, because the guys already can not live without margin 300%, unusual. Uncool somehow. Way. Hang out around budget certainly better than work.
After all, when the Russian city of Moscow comes from the member of the system integrator to povorovat local budget, doing something dull Federal and very expensive, what’s he doing? He whines in instagram to begin with — what was flying business class that the ladder was not met. The hotel is not 5 stars, Oh and a dump with*Anaya, go to the pub most expensive local grief, and then perform their difficult task — catalyst 3750 rack will twist and the configuration will flood.
And when in Moscow for talks with one of operators “the big three” came two top of Huawei — both from the Board of Directors — they are in one hotel, not Central, number of single taken. Well, why spend the money, they also one night there to sleep. Balticom. Continue to fly, many cases. Such an ordinary Chinese managers top managers — strong men over 50, dollar millionaires.
So, friends, all that can United States in terms of sanctions is any action, as a result to impose himself as a huge pile. As hhly his trousers. Any such movement will generate a major reduction potential markets and income — and this is a minus for stocks “barneratutako tech (entirely of socialogic with geolocation to the cloud and bigdata) that is a smoothie with a Mojito is a traditional American diet — beans and corned beef as much as once a year a Turkey to the feast.
The foam is already coming off of inflated dot-com will no longer be inflated enough already. Those who really believe that Facebook can cost as much as several tens of Novolipetsk steel, because the type of experts that considered the potential profit from the sale of online games and subscription services — you try to move away from the monitor and to estimate the potentiality of all that is happening, and then think about what you can buy for the money.
And what’s fun farm and zombies-versus-straights possible to write as much as necessary, and to issue shares, and IPO, and roughly drink is all, but the economy is changing. Now for a toy cellphone, valued at an amount equal to one million tons of titanium — a million tons of titanium do not buy. It’s creepy and scary for monetarists situation, but it is from the company Apple can be 100 billion dollars, and the plant ajfonov can be estimated in 1 billion dollars — but this does not mean that Apple, when she wants, there will be 100 such plants. Figushki. The plant was in Chinese Hon Hai Precision, so it will be, but Apple will only zagazig place.
And to these things does not burst, the United States in terms of control over the Internet will toe the line, not sneezing and not blinking. Because, again, any movement is in the minus and the United States as a state, and a very fragile peace office, a high-tech fantasy about a magical world of doing nothing at the computer that much money just pay in the Normal Places.
