Current events testify that Russians live worse, and foreigners with money in our country – all the better.
From 29 September to 2 October in Sochi will host the XV international investment forum. His motto speaks for itself: “Investments – the way of development of economy of Russia”.
Once again, to present and to Woo the country of “foreign” guests will be the Prime Minister Medvedev and several Ministers. As stated, will focus on the development of the world economy and its current trends. There will be presentations from different fields and sectors of investment and economic potential of Russia. Special attention will be paid to the interaction and strengthening of ties between Russian and foreign representatives of business, political circles, expert and media community.
In fact, neither in the globalized Western neo-liberal scenario of the world, nor us, as it is mainly a raw materials appendage, there is a clear and clear view and understanding of how and in what direction to move further. Doors seems less stupid and blind corners – more and more.
It’s all happening from that one, in particular we do not want to face the truth. From all the stands and public platforms we hear unintelligible speech about “overcoming the bottom of the “sprouts of growth”, “stability of the ruble” and other soul of ordinary Russians things. And not a word about the holistic picture of what is happening, its prerequisites, the real state of Affairs and prospects. This event is from the same series. Just like Ilf and Petrov in “Twelve chairs”: “Foreigners will help us”. Exactly who, what and why? To answer these questions, we need to see for all going. There are happening and joyless things.
Just on Tuesday, 27 September, the WTO downgraded its forecast for growth in global trade. “World trade will grow in 2016, slower than expected – only 1.7%, significantly less compared to the April forecasts of 2.8%,” – said in a statement released in Geneva, the report of the world trade organization. And a statement from there: “given the fact that global GDP growth in 2016 is expected to reach 2.2% in the current year may show the slowest growth in trade and production since the crisis of 2009.” Forecasts for next year revised downwards. What is the implication of these sad figures? The crisis has not been overcome, and like any untreated disease threat moved to the severe chronic form, threatens the patient with death. In order to understand this, one must look at the real causes that produced it, and that is what brought the “fight” with him.
So, a well-known public version of the crisis. Supposedly all the fault of an incredibly bloated, unsecured debts of the two largest American foundations mortgage lending and following the collapse of a Domino effect. Very similar to the answer to the question, why blow up a nuclear bomb and killed 200 thousand people, – has closed two wires, and it went current.
Actually the problem is not transactions and two mortgage funds. The main problem is that investments in the traditional areas of activity, including in production, had ceased to be expected from them profit built in, the main measure of success and efficiency of modern economy and business. The race for profit, which would be more and faster has led to the fact that the “growth point” was the virtualization of money and their transformation from capital into product, operations which are more profitable than operations with real raw materials, goods and products. As a result, in excessively overgrown financial sector forcibly globalized, put in direct dependence on the dollar and leading Western trading rooms, the world economy, swelled the incredible size of the bubble. Bubble “paper-only” money (because money is the equivalent of the goods, and under these it in its natural form is not), and artificially generated debt. What started the collapse of the pyramid? That’s right, where the concentration of the bubble peaked – with the US. And then globalization and the lack of conceptual alternatives neoliberale economic policy has done its job. First, the fed, and behind it almost all the leading Central banks of the world started to pour “fire” “gasoline,” with cheap money. Saving, thus, primarily banking and financial sector, for its collapse would lead to the collapse of the entire virtualized world economy. And in the second place, hoping that adjusting his Affairs, “monetary” sector will begin concessional lending to the real sector of the economy, thus creating new jobs, stimulating trade, consumer demand, and the acceleration of growth in the economy as a whole. But the bankers and speculators did not rush to do this. Why? Again, due to the fact that investments in the traditional areas of activity, including industry, do not produce the expected results. The circle is closed.
Against this background, leading Central Banks began to curtail its program of quantitative easing (in particular the ECB and the Bank of Japan). And what happened? It was nothing special. The General concept of monetization of the world economy sharpened, not on the production and making profit at any cost and satisfaction of the appetites of the major shareholders, disregard everything else, including billions of non-profit division of the people has not changed. Financiers have continued, and continue, to this day, their manipulative games. The money mostly from the financial sector to the real not fall. Demand and trade are not bred. Corporations are also seeing this, also have achieved their investment flows. And why, if the General background shows a negative trend. The explosive growth of consumption, trade and their background is wide and tough competition there. They invest only in the technology the following structure and the maintenance of their positions on the already conquered markets. Financial speculators, of course, as always the world looking for a fast-growing, fast-wrap, high-yield platforms in order to rapidly enrich themselves and if that is also rapidly escape with a profit, leaving financial ashes. This was due to a severe crisis a number of developing countries, the growth of which the guys like Soros and smaller players has made the capital, and then abruptly everything was taken out, the ears and the collapse of the national currency, indices, ratings and other economic indicators. Leaving behind debt and poverty of the local producers and the population.
But with perseverance worthy of better application, do not recognize nor whose experience and line up for foreign money. Do everything in order to the most unimaginable limits to improve the conditions of stay and “work” foreign businessmen in Russia. And they, to the delight of our liberal economists recognize this.
“Investors in Russia have had record profits,” writes 20 September, The Wall Street Journal. “Russia all year was winning a place for those who were buying depreciating stocks, bonds and foreign currency”, – noted with satisfaction the publication. On new technologies, creation of new jobs, modernization of production, withdrawal of Russian assets in new markets, the article doesn’t say anything. But this purpose needs to attract foreign investors. For the benefit of the Russian economy and the Russians and they have come here to do work, not Vice versa. In fact it is not. At that time, as foreign investors comfortable conditions are created for making profits, the lives of Russians is rapidly deteriorating. According to Rosstat, in August, real disposable income of Russians (that is money which remain after payment of all obligatory payments, so he can spend them at their discretion), decreased compared to the same month of the previous year’s average of 8.3%. The rate of contraction of real incomes continue to accelerate (in June, the decline is estimated at 4.8% in July, 7.3%) and reached a maximum of more than seven years.
Assess the situation the Russians recently introduced the “Levada-center” published the results of his survey of the end of August. According to them, 80% of respondents acknowledged the economic crisis in the country. 33% expecting or already have problems with wages (in the months of delays in salary expected 16%, and 17% of those surveyed already hold wages). 42% perceive significant uncertainty about the future (20% to allow for the dismissal in the next few months, 8% – in the coming weeks, 14% of respondents claim that there is a reduction of jobs).
Why foreign investors in Russia as well, when the Russians so bad? Who to whom and for whose benefit work? These questions we have never raised and publicly discussed. On the contrary, dominant in the domestic economic circles point of view – the more foreign investors and money, the better.
This is evidenced recently began its rapid return to power Alexei Kudrin, September 21, encountered with fired him in 2011, Dmitry Medvedev. At the meeting he was true to himself, saying that the main problems countries are “deepening isolation from international capital markets and commodity markets” as well as “involvement in conflicts in the area of interest or near Russia’s borders”. For the institutional environment the main problem was called the challenges of the inadequate level of public administration, as well as excessive state involvement in the economy. In General, the conflict unilaterally has got to stop. With all the come to terms. And their environment, as other they will not go, not for this conflict have undertaken and sanctions imposed. As soon as we’re back to being soft and thoroughly obedient disciples of the Western community, we to joy Alexei Kudrin and his followers, let the debt capital markets and we will go even more foreign investors. And if you reduce to a minimum the level of public administration (ideally even leave it in purely nominal), and on the same scale to reduce state involvement in the economy, the alien trample us tuna shoal. And what would he do then not poperet if that happened all this, the state actually leaves everywhere, and a Holy place, as we know, is never empty. It will be like in the “tale of bygone years” when elder Gostomysl allegedly called the Vikings Rus: “our Land is great and rich, but there is no order: come to reign and rule over us.”
In defending this position Alexei Leonidovich are not alone. A similar view is held by the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina. “The key limiting factor for investment is not so much the high key interest rate and tight monetary policy, as structural limitations and the investment climate,” she says. “The monetary policy of the Central Bank did not negatively affect economic growth, but on the contrary, is intended to increase the investment attractiveness of the country.”
All for attractiveness and attraction into the country as most foreign. But why none of these gentlemen does not ask – why, if the aliens were interested in strong, economically developed, advanced Russia, with a growing, highly educated, wealthy and happy population, they did everything to make nothing?! Alexei Leonidovich Kudrin is 11 years, was the head of the Ministry of Finance and for many years Vice-Premier of the government. Repeatedly recognized as the “international business community” the best Finance Minister. He’s been hanging out at Davos and Bilderberg. Last year, the influential magazine Euromoney recognized the best Nabiullina head of the Central Bank. Before all this, Gorbachev was given the Nobel prize. And happiness-where? What all these boys and girls are awarded, if the life of ordinary Russians are far from the standards not only of the “Golden billion”, but even incommensurable with the Soviet.
And the results of economic activities of the country, to put it mildly, were reduced to a single indicator. Oil price is still the starting point for projections and economic development and budget parameters. What has been done for a quarter century and whether it was possible to do something? Yes, very much. For comparison it is enough to recall the Soviet Union of 1945. The war destroyed most developed and densely populated European part of the country, the South and the Caucasus, almost to the bare earth. All production capacities in industry and agriculture, power generation, infrastructure, housing, social facilities – everything! Now look at the statistics and the chronicle, USSR, 1970. Before us is blooming highly developed in every country, in almost all indicators confidently occupying leading positions in the world. Laughing, actively giving birth, confident in the future of the people. Now look at those same 25 years of the reign of the latter-day saviors of the Fatherland. In 1991, they got destroyed in the same zero the country, and they brought it to the five world leaders on all indicators, including happiness and optimism of the people? Rather the reverse if it was, and continues to be?
Maybe that’s why the current Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov in Moscow financial forum said: “it is Necessary to use a conservative forecast. Last years we had such optimism in forecasts and budgets. This optimism is absolutely useless”. Optimism ran along with the remains of the Soviet capacity in the economy and high prices for hydrocarbons and raw materials. More drag from the “pantry” for sale on favorable terms is nothing. Therefore, the optimism was blown away. Now the main rate on those who pray our liberal economists, who “proliberalization” all former power of the USSR, – uncle from abroad. And what about yourself? With this hard.
According to analysts of the “Center of development” the most acute problem in Russia is not lack of money, and lack of projects that can generate stable profits. Simply put, for all its vaunted market price, which compared effectively with the supposedly “primitive” state, all these gentlemen and their followers in 25 years have not learned to create new points of potential growth and profits, respectively. The only thing they had – a quarter of a century to wring all you can from individualized in the era of “grabbing” factories, fields and ships of Soviet construction and slicing. This applies to various economic entities, from the “oil” to the unfortunate “bulgarii” drowned in 2011.
What guys like Prokhorov invested wring to arrive at the creation of new production facilities and technologies that increase productivity? Where these new facilities and technologies, liberally covering the body of Russia and the envy of partners from abroad? They are not. And the American basketball club and other assets abroad where it really flowed and was actively invested withdrawn from our country the profit is. And then these gentlemen say that people in Russia are poor work, low productivity, and it is necessary to tighten the labor code?
But all this at an investment forum in Sochi, of course, will not speak. Not for this going. Although the issues, as they say, is overdue.
