The Central Bank believes that the recession is over. Rosstat, in turn, indicates that real wages began to rise. Under other circumstances it would mean that Russia has successfully overcome the crisis, and now we can expect another period of strong economic growth:
http://www.vestifinance.ru/articles/73744
Indeed, let’s look at one of the important indicators of our financial strength, the size of the international reserves of Russia. As you can see, after you enter the West the sanctions, the reserves began to dwindle, however, after some time, the Central Bank stabilized the situation, and now more than a year as our reserves are steadily increasing:
http://www.cbr.ru/hd_base/Default.aspx?Prtid=mrrf_7d
Our foreign debt, on the contrary, is steadily declining. Since the introduction of sanctions of the West it fell more than $ 200 billion, and is now at the lowest level in the last five years:
http://ruxpert.ru/Внешний_долг_России
Thus, the financial stability we have in fact a whopping… what, in General, is not surprising — our economy has a solid base, which weakly depends on external factors.
Judge for yourself. The energy we have — thanks to the oil and nuclear power. Industry we have developed enough, so we were able to cover most of our needs. Agriculture we have our own, and the last years it has seen rapid growth. Russia’s food security is secured:
http://ruxpert.ru/Продовольственная_безопасность_России
Quite a few countries on the planet can boast the same. For example, in Germany and, say, Ukraine is not its oil, these countries are dependent on imports of hydrocarbons. The oil of the Arab countries there is no production or agriculture — they have to spend huge amounts of money to import the most important and necessary things. Norway and Canada are not independent, they critically depend on larger structures such as the European Union or the United States.
The United States is the only major country apart from Russia, which has its oil, industry and agriculture is tightly entangled in debt, and now is floundering pitifully under a heap of financial instruments, trying to delay the inevitable moment of reckoning.
Russia, again, is now in a unique situation: not only do we have all essential elements of a solid economy, but also have a powerful army that can protect us from various encroachments of Western partners. For example, we do not invest, like the Norwegians, our stocks in the us financial bubbles — its stockpile of Russian stores or in gold, or the like reliable tools.
(At this point, perhaps, is to remind you that the myth of Russia’s investments in US bonds understands here:
http://ruxpert.ru/Вложения_России_в_облигации_США
Refer to this article when the pseudo-patriots or Pro-Western liberals will tell you that Russia allegedly sponsoring the America).
Now, Russia’s financial system is currently robust and stable is the fact. Our industry also is gradually overcoming the crisis: thanks to the clean markets import substitution in Russia we have excellent conditions for growth for the Chinese type — in what the industry tkni, be sure to find the best options for commencement.
Statistics show that the industrial production index in April shows a constant growth:
http://www.gks.ru/wps/wcm/connect/rosstat_main/rosstat/ru/statistics/enterprise/industrial/#
If you consider that to deploy any large-scale production need at least two to three years, one would predict that the substitution will result in strong growth in the years 2017-2018.
Only one major svinokompleksov is now being built five pieces — the account goes already on millions of pigs. But Russia has started to export pork when the pig is completed, we can hope that our pork will capture a significant share of the world market, as has happened already with the wheat.
Of course, built Stakhanov pace smelters, refineries, pharmaceutical complexes and other and other. Curious refer to the list currently under construction major projects:
http://ruxpert.ru/Строящиеся_российские_проекты
So, colleagues, if now on the calendar flaunted 2009, I would probably exuded optimism and hoped for the best. However, the global crisis has not been canceled, and the fact that the suffering of the Western economic path will not be escalated so far in the catastrophe, correctly will be regarded as luck, which will end sooner or later.
What happens when the West still will have to start to pay for decades of debt?
All economies of the world will shrink — including Russian. Our margin will allow us to pass the crisis safely, with compassion looking out the Windows to the “greater Greece”, which inevitably becomes entangled in the loans of the countries of the West. However, the margin of safety is not enough to not notice the crisis — the coming cataclysm will affect us…
Of course, you can think about other scenarios. For example, many investors already think about Russia as a potential tranquil haven in the event of a disaster, perhaps a lot of money flee EN masse in our direction. Then Russia’s economy will grow, and grow rapidly.
However, I would still expect a period of several difficult years. Unfortunately, this scenario now seems much more likely.
