Russia today is in deep crisis. For various reasons — both objective, and in connection with failures in political strategy and tactics, both inside the country and in the international arena. And as usual, the first victims are the ordinary people, their income, their social security.
About what is happening today with the so-called social programs, we are talking to a well-known expert on social issues, doctor of economic Sciences, member of the Committee for civil initiatives Evgeny GONTMAKHER.
— How are we doing today with the “social state”? We should say goodbye to him? Somehow it is difficult to imagine a broad social policy not just in a poor country, but even in this, which is arming itself with all the world around fell out.
Actually in our Constitution says that Russia is a social state. But we haven’t and never was. We from nothing today, do not refuse, because to not give up on anything. From my point of view, the welfare state is entirely humanitarian in nature, it does not describe any figures, saying that such and such income, such expenses… a state that does not allow exclusion from the social life of some more or less important groups. And what happens to us?
Well, for example, take people with disabilities. That, in Russia, the disabled protected? Never been protected. Well, in some region better, in some worse. That began with a huge delay to do any gatherings, ramps. But it’s Moscow! But in the province too is disabled. But the ramps is very simple, it is a trifle. And most important — socialization of persons with disabilities, their participation in society, health, education. By the way, every person with disabilities has a formal individual rehabilitation program, which in fact massively fails. And we have, among other things, of disabled persons in the country almost 10% of the population.
Or take the family with minor children. There is a welfare state? There is absolute exclusion, because
how to show all studies, the largest group of poor in Russia is families with minor children. If you have two of them, then you are likely to fall into poverty when you have to save on food.
That is, we can’t an average family with two young children to provide a normal level of well-being that was not just bread, cereals and potatoes, and to ensure her development. When adults and children have access to education, quality healthcare, which not just cures sores, and profilaktirujut allows you to lead a healthy lifestyle.
Take the elderly, especially lonely, which in General abandoned. The system of patronage we have, to put it mildly, not very working.
Take those who was released after serving his sentence. Little to say about them, but the millions of people who are not socialized, which are in large part then again commit crimes. And often not because they are hardened, but because they are not returned back to normal life after a stay in jail.
And such excluded groups have quite a lot. We are not a welfare state. Because the welfare state demands that any group that got in a difficult situation, get some backup. By the way, not necessarily the state. It can be the same NGO, charity, philanthropy. Among other things, municipal authorities have a huge role to play. And here is where the municipal authorities? Without money, without authority, do?
We are dealing with the corporate state, something that at the time did Mussolini. All-inclusive inside — trade unions, NGOs, creative unions, must all work in a kind of sacred state at the head, of course, a sacred leader. It’s a classic. In such circumstances, the social state can not be.
Remember the anecdote from the Brezhnev era? “All in the name of man, everything for man’s welfare. And we even know the man.”
I don’t mean a specific person, I mean a particular state, which comes with all the possible twists and turns of our history from their own interests and not the interests of the public.
For example, health care. Back in the early 2000-ies the question was raised about what we need to calculate what is the real need of our society in health care. For this it was necessary to assess the state of health of the society, how many at us patients, etc. But this has not been done. And still we have the condition assessed on a very simple thing: on the appeals in the clinic.
— It is necessary to come and say: “I’m sick”?
Yeah, but that’s not all.
So now that health services become more limited (because money is less), now in fact, the health status of the population will be determined by the Finance amount of money, so is the health status of the population. That is, if we will not have any healthcare, we have the health status of the population would be considered ideal.
Because nowhere is recorded that people get sick with cancer, cardiovascular disease, flu — they will heal themselves. Know what in our country the circulation of the newspaper? Those who talk about a healthy lifestyle! Colleagues conducted a study in the province: in many places people no longer go to the doctor. People are treated with herbs, with the help of traditional healers, psychics, some wizards. Not because they don’t want to go to the doctor, but because either the doctor is bad, or to it impossible to get to because of the queue, or he’s just far away. For this reason, by the way, recently there was a report of the accounts chamber, absolutely furious. And where is the state? Does it just not see this? This is an example that says that we have a state anti-social that it only pursues its own objectives.
Bureaucracy, the state I live in itself, is a separate life, it is as if behind glass. And it’s not because the government has some kannibalistskih inclinations, simply by definition, this type of state does not see how real people live.
I remember there was a fire in Perm “Lame horse”, when many people died. There has arrived Putin (he was then Prime Minister), his night was brought to hospital where he lay injured. And he said (this was shown on TV): “Do we have a health care?” In the sense that he saw poverty, ragged walls that do not have time to paint for his arrival.
No, the heroism of the doctors, everything is clear. But the great wall! Just not in time for the arrival prepare. We have even sometimes that is sick, the doctors lay down in bed, when he or another “boss” coming from Moscow — that, God forbid, patients extra not say that.
It’s like already seriously ill Lenin published “the Truth” in one instance with specially selected news.
Now we are experiencing a lot of difficulties associated with the fall in oil prices and the effects of the crisis over Crimea and Ukraine, international isolation and sanctions, with the costs of the Crimea and the “hybrid war” in Eastern Ukraine. Besides, as you know, even before the fall in oil prices and before the Ukrainian crisis nedorabotannaya our economy began to go into a tailspin. Of all the components of the current situation, the most harmful to our economy and, in particular, to the social sphere? Because social policies need money and there is not enough that their peace is not enough, so also the external situation is getting worse and worse, and the militarization of society is increasing. Where main chains of our social development?
— First and foremost veriga is our state. We have long before Crimea and sanctions. When it is closed on itself and goes in all holes, does not allow us to live normally, it is extremely inefficient, has poor management, the squandering of budget money. At the time, was initiated by the famous national projects, they were released quite a significant amount. But right now, nobody actually remembers.
— Why?
— Because they did not give the desired effect. When Putin declares them at the time, he said, “Guys, the money we will allocate in order to patch up any holes, and reform later. The hole was patched. Where are these reforms? But we are well aware that without reforms to patch up the holes — this means nothing to do.
— Well, Yes. The formation of new holes. It’s like rust.
— Which is what happened. Because our government is afraid of reform. In social terms is enormous, unfortunately, the negative role played by the monetization of benefits. Then our government was a terrible fright. And remember, who took to the streets? Not young people, not students, and retirees — the most seemingly loyal electorate. And at the same time, Ukraine was the “orange” revolution.
Of course, at the top in the minds of all was — yeah, we, too, can be “orange revolution”, especially since even the seniors came. All, any reforms do not, we at the expense of oil and gas will live, we will give money to feed these people, holes to patch, and there where the curve will take out. I saw predictions of oil prices, it was somewhere in the area 2007-2008 — $200 per barrel!
And it had been carried to the top. And there, apparently, agreed: “Guys, well, fine. This our life is enough”. By the way, the type of state we’re talking about, is the community of favorites. They live their lives there, go have something to leave to our children, and they don’t care what will happen to the country, which they, in words it’s like. Incidentally, many in spite of “patriotism”, will resolve to different foreign countries.
So, the basic instinct of our state — even long-overdue reform is not needed. And the fact that they were not carried out when you had the money and when it was possible to enclose a pillow — it is a colossal blunder of the state. Strategic miscalculation.
Than the state does today? It hits the tails: how much money he has, so much it allocates for social programs. On defense, then the funds go in the first place is top priority.
And the rest — how much is that money will give health care, how is that money will give education. And it cuts us in full.
— The constant dancing around the pension system are even afraid to ask — at risk of our conversation is not finish ever.
— Yes, this is a separate issue. Confusing everyone. Started with a decent reform of 2002. Then she immediately began to mend. And now, as a result, you will not find all. By the way, here’s an interesting question. Let me remind you that was a two-year freeze of contributions to the funded part of pensions. Now the money should be returned to future pensioners. And where are they? Was spent either in the Crimea, said the Minister of Finance Siluanov, or used to pay current retirees. The Finance Ministry is now scratching his head. This, incidentally, several hundred billion rubles! Where does it take the money to return in pension funds, where people have written statements? Clear answer is no. That is, we have an Amateur state. Not that there are people who want to infringe upon the compatriots to cut their pensions.
No, mostly it’s normal people. But when they begin to act as a kind of machine they have at the outlet all get anti-social and totally unsuccessful. And therefore, our state is the number one problem.
The second number — antisanktsii. Because they raised prices, they gave us monopoly market. In many niches there was some competition between our products and imported, and now there is no competition, and prices on Russian goods increased.
— Well, what about sanctions?
I would do number three. But this is a very long time-social effects. Sanctions will impact primarily on our labour market. Because it’s a blow to our production, in many industries, and therefore, a decrease in employment (people already are switching EN masse to part time, they reduce wages). Many workers move to the informal sector. The official unemployment numbers that are published, uninteresting, because they do not have any relation to real life, real situation on the labour market.
— And what is relevant to real life?
— The most adequate numbers is wages and real incomes. Wages, the real, that is, purified from inflation, according to Rosstat in may (may 2015 to may 2014) is minus 7.3%. Real income — minus 6.4%. But it’s the averages. So, in some families this is not a minus 6-7 and minus 10 or 20. That is, there are pockets where many people are in a very difficult position.
— Recently, in the midst of all that you have described is a revival of the theme of reform. Then speak Gref, Kudrin, then someone else. Where is it, why is this topic suddenly appeared in the public space at the time, as the government is afraid of is not something that reforms, and in General of any complexity and unpredictability” and is looking for simple solutions, even where they are not? Is there a hope that the situation will somehow turn around and re-start reform from the top?
— By the way, Gref said that such a state apparatus would be better not to entrust the reform, it is first necessary to put in order management system. In fact, the type of state we’re talking about and who is obsessed with himself, likes to talk about reform. Remember Medvedev’s article “Forward, Russia!”, where he talked about the “archaic” model of the economy, take the latest version of the Main activities of the government. There is also written about the reforms. This is the mantra that spell. Because
subconsciously bureaucracy still understands that just stand still — it’s like not pedaling on a bike, will fall. But pozyskiwania wording, for example: “Yes, we are planning reforms that will give effect in 2055”.
And implicitly the author’s thought is very simple — we will not live. Two years later, if not I will go according to plan, we can say: “Well, boys, external circumstances, and that. Let’s now 2060 open”. And it’s such a bureaucratic game of reform, which has no relation to reality.
Now on. Of course there are people who are not embedded in the bureaucracy, such as Gref, Kudrin same type and a number of other experts who see the dangers and challenges that threaten us.
— In this there are none?
— No, they have no time. I was a very senior person once said that
the classical system of public administration can be built on two principles — functions and objectives. And we have third. You know what? According to the instructions. Our state apparatus, as well as schools, hospitals, littered with papers.
And there’s even normal, sensible people have no time to think about reforms, they sit and answer the numerous orders that come down from above. The advantage Gref, Kudrin and other such people that they are, thank God, now don’t sit buried under this huge pile of orders.
— That is if they were in government, they are unlikely to be something like that expressed?
— I would say that they were saying that even when they were in power, although he was a turnover, and performance discipline. Now everything is even more simplified: if any of the current officials, Vladimir Putin says that he does not agree with what is included in the “General line of the party”, it is quite probable immediate retirement. Therefore, it is better not to speak.
To go by inertia no longer is a bad option. That is, you either turn the economic ship to the side, relatively speaking, Glazyev and Rogozin, in either direction, relatively speaking, Gref and Kudrin. But such a decision at the top is not accepted. Although the need for it is long overdue, and it is understood by all, even by many officials. It may well be a kind of competition, possible types of reforms. Although I have serious doubts about the professionalism of what is supposedly statist side. I think there is not very short calculations, studies, not very short of some things associated with motivation and interests of different social groups. There is, in fact, the same approach as the Bolsheviks – people are seen as expendable.
Kudrin, Gref and their supporters, to whom I count myself, obviously are in a state in a state of great alarm. Because they are sure that the continuation of the inertial scenario for another two to three to four years will lead to the fact that our car will be uncoupled from the world of the train. And Russia will become the fifth power of a number. Forever.
— What do you think society has a reserve of strength not to notice the deterioration of life and to continue to rejoice as “uschuchil” the West?
— Plasticity, the malleability of our society is very large. In relation to propaganda, to ideologies, which are not relevant to real life. For example, I saw on the glass good cars sticker: “Win then, and win now.” And it’s not just about the great Victory. People feel better life somewhere in 2005-2007. Still, pensions have increased, incomes began to rise. It was certainly not a very good economic basis, and due to the growth of prices for oil and gas, but nonetheless it was. People, among other things, all related to the merits of the state. In the 2008-2009 crisis, the government did not allow the decline of social standards. Even had famous valorisation of pensions, which took place in the midst of an economic crisis. Now
now dominated by the mood that the government will make the same miracle, as it was then. Something will happen — for example, oil prices will rise and we will again fall goods and income. This phenomenon is very high of Putin’s rating, although now about half of Russian families only have enough money for current expenses.
Expectations are as follows: the President or the government will come up with something. Our task is to wait, it’s our job to be patient.
— Our society has a very high level of adaptation to the most adverse circumstances.
Yes. By the way, this type of passive adaptability is a sign of a very deep crisis of our human capital. She says that people don’t want to unite and expect someone on top of them will solve all the problems. A readiness to join (in this case mainly in words) demonstrate only in the context of external threats — real or imaginary.
