Thorough international investigation into the death of nearly 300 people aboard flight Malaysian airlines MH17 has been completed and the investigators in his report clearly pointed the finger at Russia. Such a crime should be enough to convince the West to reconsider its approach to the problems with Russia. However, it seems that he too often falls into the trap of their own ideas about the inevitability and even the desirability of at least limited cooperation with the Putin regime. Meanwhile, the regime for each offer the West about the interaction meets a new string of killings.
For example, the Russian attack on the humanitarian convoy of the United Nations in Syria was again torn to shreds US attempts to find common ground with Moscow on the Syrian issue. This attack, which should be evaluated for possible Commission of a war crime happened after tireless searches American at least one issue on which Russia could establish pragmatic cooperation.
News about the resumption of the bombing campaign in Syria began to arrive shortly after reports that American intelligence agencies are seriously concerned about the secret Russian interference in the presidential election. All this is not surprising after the events of the past eight years, including, after the wars of Russia in Georgia, Ukraine and Syria. If you look back, it is impossible not to admit that we are very far gone after George W. Bush said he looked into Putin’s eyes and felt his soul. However, Western leaders are somehow still think that the simple solution to our problems with Russia is to find some illusory common interests during the negotiations with Putin.
If the conclusions that we do, again and again to be incorrect, then we need to reconsider their original positions. Key concepts of the regime, such as the pyramid of power, Putin’s role as its Creator, the first cause of the Kremlin’s policy aimed at consolidation of power in the country, as well as the possibility of finding viable alternatives to Putin within the regime should be fresh and carefully analyze if we want to understand exactly what you’re dealing with.
The theory of “great man” and other methods, emphasizing the role of personality in history, constantly give us the temptation to seek the source of our problems with Russia in the person of Putin himself. This is a mistake. In Putin’s Russia, which he directs, is much more important than him.
Anyone who spent a lot of time to research the nature of this regime, can lead a lot of evidence in favor of this argument. For several years, scientists, diplomats and even the prosecutors have a very simple and convenient argument that the Russian regime is akin to a mafia state. This conclusion is quite natural and logical consequence of the huge number of arrest warrants for high-ranking Russian officials. But Western politicians feel uncomfortable from a political point of view to come to this conclusion, as evidenced by the constancy of their approaches to Russia.
Unfortunately, the majority of Western countries, using concepts that apply to authoritarian regimes in General, I believe that they very well learned to build relations with the Putin government. But a mafia state requires a completely different approach than the authoritarian state. So, heads of foreign diplomatic agencies is very difficult to explain to voters why they should cooperate with the mafia; however, they expect that the electorate will provide in cooperation with the Russian mafia state an important goal and a big plus.
Today the activity of the Russian special services and the degree of political intervention is superior to all that we saw during the cold war. Moreover, the Kremlin carries out its dirty tricks and conducts intelligence operations not only in neighbouring countries, which Moscow is not permissible to relate to their sphere of influence, but also in France, Germany and even in the United States. But any attempts by Western countries to discuss necessary remedial actions against such Russian efforts to cause the kind of allergic reaction, as if we are talking about the resumption by the West of the cold war.
The West is still trying to convince myself that in Moscow and even the Kremlin are good guys that will force Putin to change his destructive policy, or achieve regime change in Russia. We continue to bet on such an outcome, because we feel that we understand not only the interests of the Russian state, but also the Russian elite.
The only disadvantage of this approach is that our understanding of Russian interests reflect our understanding of self-interest. At least the results achieved for more than a two-year period of sanctions against the Putin regime imposed after the annexation of Crimea, had to convince us that the Russian elite do not share our ideas about her interests. We must also pay attention to the last victory of the Kremlin in the middle East and elsewhere in the international arena, and its apparently strong position in the country.
The Russian mafia state in the style of the KGB will not agree to self-destruct. It can be stopped, but first, Western leaders must rethink their assumptions about Putin and Russia. They must also prepare their constituents to a long confrontation, not pinning faint hopes on regime change in the foreseeable future.
