The Doha negotiations were conducted between representatives of the cartel, OPEC, Russia, and several small manufacturers. The Kremlin had hoped that the cartel will decide to cut off the oil valve and to restrict production. The effect would be as expected in Moscow increased prices for oil. Recall now that a barrel of Brent costs about 42 dollars, and the Russian Urals. To dependent on oil exports for the Russian budget, this price is deadly.
In a period of prosperity, two years ago, it was formed on the basis of the prices exceeding 100 dollars per barrel (in 2008, a record exceeded 140 dollars). But that all changed. This year, the Russian Ministry of Finance assumed that the price will stay at around $ 50, then these assumptions have to be adjusted as new horrendous forecasts for a further decline. Now, Russian analysts predict that by the end of the year the price of Russian oil will keep at level 30-some-odd dollars. The Russian government has already had to apply to pending during the period of abundance reserves and begin to cut costs, for example, in the social sphere, education, science and investments.
Doha promised some hope of changing these trends. Russia relied extensively on Saudi Arabia. In the Kremlin know that saudize is also suffocating from the excess of cheap oil. They are better than Russians, due to a larger volume of reserves (billions invested mainly in the American economy) and smaller size of the state that must hold. Despite this limitation the volume of production would be a huge relief for almost all producers, especially from countries that depend on export of one resource.
However, Saudi Arabia plays his own game. She was primarily interested in the reduction of production said of Iran. Meanwhile, Tehran has refused to participate in the summit in Doha. The ayatollahs are not going to reduce production, because the abolition of Western sanctions allows Iran with its huge oil reserves and productive capacity to effectively enter international markets. Low prices are not yet concerned with: he can sell cheap and plenty, and at the same time he needs Western technology and investment. At the same time he wants to put cardizem — their main competitors in the region.
Because the Iranian boycott of Saudi Arabia, the largest oil producer in OPEC, has taken a hard line, and she was the key. In the end, the Iranian-Saudi rivalry has buried the Russian dreams of the chances of price increases and the prospect for a while to breathe easy.
Thanks to the reserves and opportunities to reduce costs in Russia remains a little more time, but it is not enough. So it certainly would take steps to being able to influence oil prices. It will be risky and very dangerous attempts. Why? Because they can turn in the direction of further destabilization of the Middle East is key for the oil market in the region. While Moscow has been creating tools for such influence. This, in particular, activity in Syria, where it has become an equal to the United States, Saudi Arabia or Iran player. The Russians are trying to destabilize the situation in Turkey, supporting Turkish Kurds or reviving the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
But things will remain the same. Oil wells in the Persian Gulf and Western Siberia will be like a mad, pumping oil, trying to compensate for the low volume selling price raw materials. Leading manufacturers still sustain this crazy pace, but this situation will not last long. The question remains, who will give up first and how will stop wells: peacefully or by the strong, the whole world shaking explosions.
