“Газета.Ru”
John Baptist de Medina/bg.EN
On the background of the next parliamentary and local elections is in full swing another election campaign. Non-public, but it is much more important. In Russia launched perhaps the most ambitious since the beginning of the century (and at the same time since the beginning of the reign of the current President) the process of renewal of the elites. The system is preparing for a new presidential election cycle, and in the future will take not all of the current vertical of power.
Recently resigned from their posts Sergei Ivanov, Dmitry Livanov, Pavel Astakhov, Andrey Belyaninov. Changing the governors and the corps of envoys. The media persistently dismissed seeming unsinkable the head of SK Alexander Bastrykin and the Minister of culture Vladimir Medinsky. Full loyalty or even personal closeness to the head of state are no longer an indulgence. After the election, is expected a new wave of resignations and appointments, based on the composition of the next Duma, where, in particular, can be moved from the office of the President curator of Russian domestic politics, Vyacheslav Volodin. Tipped change in the fate of several governors.
The results of these informal elections are still unpredictable, and burst forth only a few leaks and rumors as a result of intra-elite fights.
Another important evidence of a power struggle to become resonant criminal cases against high-ranking employees of law enforcement agencies, primarily the interior Ministry and the Investigative Committee that causes observers to draw a conclusion about the strengthening of the position of the FSB in the political field.
Bastrykin tipped to resign on the basis of high-profile cases against the leadership of the Moscow Central Directorate of the Investigative Committee — as usual, citing anonymous sources. Although the same Minister of internal Affairs Vladimir Kolokoltsev has dismissed at different times, several times, but he is still in office, although the interior Ministry after the creation of Regardie and lost part of their powers. The Minister of sport Vitaly Mutko, who unsuccessfully tried to dismiss Dmitry Medvedev as President of Russia, it seems to have survived even the largest doping scandal in the history of the country and yet looks confident.
“Noname” and outsiders can suddenly be the favorites in power. Because the scale of effectiveness by which to assess people, the Kremlin personnel officer, the public is unknown.
Analyzing what has already happened destination, you will notice that the new appointees (most of them officials or MPs with experience, although there are really fresh faces like children’s Ombudsman Anna Kuznetsova) is still different from the old.
In our eyes, contours of the new image of the Russian elite. To replace hardened cynics, telling one thing, doing another, thinking a third, people come ideological. And the state trend of a great power based on traditional religious and family values. The people who seem to sincerely believe in what makes the power. In this respect, more honest. And, most importantly, a fully owe their careers to the President.
Obviously, it is not those people who are able to quality reform, if by reform movement to the present, and not archaic. Sometimes you can doubt their professionalism and even adequate relation to reality.
The new appointees impress people who will have something to do to serve the country as a measure of skill and understanding of its mission, not just to receive the posts.
But while we are talking about is not the most important posts. Even the post of head of the presidential administration if the current scenario doesn’t look the key. About who will come into the offices, taking the most important political and economic decisions, we have yet to learn.
In particular, while retirement-destination is not affected the most important part of the elite — the economic block of the government and the Central Bank. Almost the last pockets of professionalism and pragmatism in government, where one of personal loyalty or ideology is not enough, we must also be able to make the right operational and strategic decisions — especially in situations when political decisions all the time complicating the conditions of the problem. From the staff of this unit could eventually depend even more than from any shifts of the security forces or within the Kremlin administration.
To constantly rely on the “big politics” to the detriment of the economy becomes more and more expensive for the state and the elite.
Of course, the Russians are used to poverty and to the fact that the abstract interests of the country always the priority in front of the narrow-minded consumer interests. But, on the other hand, many Russians have improved their well-being “fat zero”, was introduced to the new standards of consumption and to roll into the new poverty do not really want. And military power of the state for big geopolitical games in the context of weakening economy support will be more difficult: example-ravaged arms race with grossly inefficient economy and low quality of state management of the USSR — always before his eyes.
The Duma elections in 2016, regardless of their results and turnout, most likely, will not be crucial for the country. The main Russian elections in the current environment and the current state of the political system are in a different place — the head of state chooses a new elite. And a narrow circle of the elite will choose its first face. However, this story is following the election campaign presidential. Although this thought may fall fate to be not just “the printer”, but something much more important, if the process of updating the elite gets out of control.
