In recent months, the media was informed about the falling of stock quotes of the largest German Bank – Deutsche Bank. So, on the last day of September the Bank’s shares on the Frankfurt stock exchange fell 9%, on the new York stock exchange by 7%. Some commentators were quick to call it point of no return. Simply put, announced the imminent death of the patient.
Since the beginning of this year, the market capitalization of Deutsche Bank fell two times. Events with this Bank fit into the overall picture of deterioration in the financial position of the banking sector of the countries of the European Union. However, this write very little. There is a suspicion that the increased interest in Deutsche Bank someone warmed a little in the hope that further aggravate his situation.
Stream sensational reports that the Bank is on the verge of bankruptcy, complemented by a series of official actions that really bring Deutsche Bank to death. Recall a loud statement to the International monetary Fund made at the beginning of summer this year. The IMF has named Deutsche Bank as “catastrophic”. This is a really sensational statement. And not just because Deutsche Bank is one of the worldís largest credit institutions from the category of systemically important banks. There is an unwritten rule against such banks public evaluation is not done. The IMF for decades has never allowed himself publicly to rate individual financial institutions, it happened the first time.
Around the same time, the Prime Minister of Italy Matteo Renzi called Deutsche Bank a major financial problem in Europe. If Renzi protected Italian banks from the attacks of officials of the European Union, why can’t he use any other defences? For example, give figures for the entire European banking system (here the picture is bleak) or a switch on criticism of Greece or Portugal, where the banking system is even worse than in Italy?
Let a poisoned arrow in Deutsche Bank and George Soros. After the UK referendum on leaving the EU, this speculator sold their shares of the German Bank (about 0.5 % of all shares of the Bank, the total amount of sales is about 100 million euros). Soros is not just the speculator. Many consider it a “financial prophet”, who in advance knows what will happen with a particular Institute. The Soros operation at the exit of Deutsche Bank has added fuel to the fire, stock quotes Bank even faster rolled down.
The recent sharp collapse of quotations of the Deutsche Bank was preceded by a decision in ten hedge funds to refuse the services of Germany’s largest Bank for the clearing of derivatives transactions. Here too not all is clear. First, all of these funds are subject to the jurisdiction of the United States. Second, their failure has occurred synchronously. Thirdly, this event has provided a powerful information support.
A series of misfortunes Deutsche Bank this is not over. In early September, the U.S. Department of justice stated that the German Bank has played a major role in the preparation of financial crisis 2007-2009: he was actively involved in the securitization of mortgage loans in the American market, it was not enough to take into account the risks of mortgage loans that ultimately triggered a collapse in the American market of mortgage securities. Accordingly, financial regulators, the U.S. start an investigation into activities of Deutsche Bank. The U.S. Department of justice suggested that the German Bank scheme: list of U.S. financial regulators the amount of 14 billion dollars. Given the current financial situation of the German Bank the sum named for him is a killer.
The question arises: why Deutsche Bank has become the target of attacks, reminiscent of a well-planned operation?
I think, first of all, because, as the largest financial institution in Germany and Europe, Deutsche Bank allowed himself to statements and assessments, which do not always coincide with the opinion of the leading officials of the EU institutions. In particular, the executives of Deutsche Bank have repeatedly expressed dissatisfaction with the actions of the European Central Bank. For example, the fact that the ECB is pursuing a policy of quantitative easing, and in 2014 began the practice of negative interest rates (first Deposit, now, and for some types of active operations).
Despite all the odes to honor the transatlantic relationship, discreet confrontation between Europe and the United States never disappeared. That is why Barack Obama leaves the White house, and not being able to conclude an agreement on the Transatlantic trade and investment partnership with the EU.
USA, represented by its financial regulators since 2012 began to actively fining European banks for violations of various kinds. The reasons are violations of sanctions, the manipulation of interest rates, manipulation of mortgage-backed and other securities that participate in the financing of terrorism, etc. the Amounts paid by European banks, financial regulators, the U.S., together are numbering in the many tens of billions of dollars. In recent years Europe begins to restore the balance. The authorities of financial supervision and financial regulation of the EU and individual European countries have started investigations against major us banks, caught them in a variety of manipulation and fraud and imposing the penalty tribute.
Here is just one recent example. At the end of September, it was reported that the German financial Department for the tax criminal cases and investigation of violations of the tax legislation in a number of cities in the Federal land North Rhine – Westphalia are investigating in relation to two dozen international banks and their business partners. Different banks are suspected of tax fraud, which cost the German Treasury at least 10 billion euros. Such investigations were carried out in Germany and other EU countries previously. But as the defendants were, as a rule, only the European banks. Now the list of suspects were banks wall street – JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley.
Finally, under the scope of the tax authorities of Europe were the major non-financial U.S. corporations. The European Commission (EC) issued in September, the decision on collecting from the American company Apple € 13 billion in favor of the Irish authorities. According to estimates of European experts, such losses incurred on the Treasury of this small country-member of the EU as a result of granting unjustified tax advantages. Many believe that the decision of the EC on Apple – retaliation Europe after the US had made its multi-billion dollar verdicts against a number of European non-financial corporations (Volkswagen, Bosch, Siemens, etc.). It is noteworthy that the decision on the investigation against Deutsche Bank, the U.S. Department of justice announced immediately after the decision of the EC for the recovery of damages from the American company Apple. It is also noteworthy that the amount of the recovery from American companies in favor of Ireland, denominated in Euro, equivalent to 14 billion. (completely symmetrical retaliation – penalty Deutsche Bank was determined 14 billion dollars).
Says a lot about what Europe and the United States are in an undeclared economic war on several fronts (trade, investments, banks, currency). In this case, as the example of Matteo Renzi, Europeans do not always act “for Europe”. Anyway, for the Europe, whose interests are commonly identified with the interests of Germany.
The parties scrutinize each other, looking for weak points. Europe has one of these pain points – Deutsche Bank. If desired, it can be turned into a bomb that will blow up the whole of Europe. After all, Matteo Renzi struck a very precise blow: he announced that for many this was a mystery: on the balance sheet of Deutsche Bank are financial derivatives in the trillions of dollars.
If you remember the causes of the global financial crisis of 2007-2009, it is probably the first place it is necessary to deliver mortgage loans and mortgage securities. In the first place should be put on the financial derivatives market, which by the beginning of the crisis, the hundreds of trillions of dollars. But over the years they have not disappeared, they just went into the shadows and remain on the balance sheets of many banks (not on the official balance sheets, but on the real, that the financial Supervisory agencies do not see or do not want to see). According to expert estimates, the volume of such financial instruments at Deutsche Bank reaches 60 trillion dollars. For comparison: German GDP of about 3.5 trillion. dollars., and all EU countries is a little over 15 trillion. $ .
If Deutsche Bank can’t withstand the attacks of those who are proponents of the interests of financial-political elite of the USA, then the Bank will collapse. Many have drawn a parallel between Deutsche Bank and the American Bank Lehman Brothers, which collapsed in September 2008. The bankruptcy of us Bank played the role of the trigger, and the financial crisis in America out of the sluggish phase moved in the acute phase. Regard, Deutsche Bank with other systemically important banks in the EU more closely than those that were with Lehman Brothers with other financial institutions in America. If Deutsche Bank “light up” the fire of the crisis instantly spread throughout Europe.
However, the partners of Europe across the Atlantic is also playing with fire. The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers led to the financial crisis from America, quickly spread to Europe. In the case of bankruptcy of Deutsche Bank will be the opposite: fire from Europe will spread to America, and the speed of spreading financial disaster will be more than eight years ago.
